Keep my deposit?

[bcsteeve]

On the day it was announced, on a whim I put in a reservation for the semi. I immediately got a PDF invoice requesting that I send $5000 Canadian dollars to reserve my spot. Unlike the model 3 reservations, these appear to be serialized, and it looks like I'm number 8. 8 in Canada, most likely, but I'm not sure on that.

It seems the deposit has since quadrupled from $5000 to $20000, so here I have an "opportunity" to keep a reservation at a significant discount (especially when we consider that $5k CAD is only $3950 USD).

With that said... it is extremely unlikely I'd actually get one. I'm no trucker. I have no desire to be a trucker. My business doesn't ship enough - certainly locally - to justify having one.

Is it worth tying up CAD$5k for X years on speculation?

I also have to consider that supercharging infrastructure in Canada is YEARS behind the US, and that will probably be the case with megachargers. And we're probably months or years behind in availability as well (ie. the first people will be getting them in 2019 supposedly, and even though I'm "8" I'm probably not seeing mine until 2020+)

What do you think? I've confirmed with them that I can have the deposit back at any time.

 

[daniel]

I'd say that if you don't intend to buy the truck, ask for your deposit back. I doubt the Semi will have the kind of demand that leads to people paying a premium to get a scarcer, popular car earlier.

 

[bcsteeve]

I worded poorly. When I said, "it is extremely unlikely I'd actually get one", I meant for myself. I'd consider buying one to lease out, sell for profit, etc.

I spent 20 minutes doing some very light research on how much owner/operators make, and with the fuel savings there's a case to be made for paying a driver to operate with my truck. Rough math says one could pocket $80k/yr.

 

[daniel]

Assuming you can get 5% on an investment in corporate bonds (about the rate I seem to be getting) that $5,000 deposit is costing you $250 per year. If Tesla says 3 years then It will probably cost you $1,250 in lost interest to keep the reservation. That's probably not such a high price to get one of the first ones, and be one of the first to be able to compete in the trucking industry with an electric truck. Of course, you probably shouldn't count on doing long haul because there might not be megachargers up there for a while. If you are confident of your numbers, and there is a market for short-haul trucking where you are, it's probably worth while keeping the reservation.

Caveat: I am not a businessman, an accountant, or a trucker. My advice is probably worth about as much as you are paying me for it.

 

[Qbenjamin]

Ditch it. You lost me as soon as you mentioned that you might be looking to turn a profit strictly after buying it, since you're so "high" on the priority list. Flipping vehicles isn't a good or typically successful business transaction unless you're a dealer.

 

[bcsteeve]

You get lost easily then. That was one of a thousand possibilities. 1 was "lease it out", the 2nd was "sell for a profit" and the other 998 was "etc".

 

[daniel]

You get lost easily then. That was one of a thousand possibilities. 1 was "lease it out", the 2nd was "sell for a profit" and the other 998 was "etc".

I can think of two more: Hire a driver to operate it, or drive it yourself. Other than lease it, sell it, or operate it as a business, with yourself or a hired driver driving it, I can't think of any others. That leaves 996, none of which comes to mind.

I doubt that selling it would be worth the hassle. The other three could potentially be worthwhile if the total cost of operation and ownership is less than or competitive with conventional trucks. The biggest problem will be the limited charging infrastructure. But you'd have a big advantage in niches that involve short runs and a lot of starting and stopping.

 

[bcsteeve]

#5 - mobile charging station for other EVs stuck without power
#6 - world's coolest party bus
#7 - eco friendly giant rolling billboard
#8 - part it out
#9 - live in it


OK, maybe 1000 was unrealistic

 

[Buook]

You get lost easily then. That was one of a thousand possibilities. 1 was "lease it out", the 2nd was "sell for a profit" and the other 998 was "etc".

I think Benjamin is jealous that you're higher on the priority list than he is. *speaks in old grandma voice*You won't be successful flipping it if you're not a dealer!" blah
I believe purchasing one is a good opportunity no matter how you plan on using it

 

[daniel]

#5 - mobile charging station for other EVs stuck without power
#6 - world's coolest party bus
#7 - eco friendly giant rolling billboard
#8 - part it out
#9 - live in it

OK, maybe 1000 was unrealistic

I think the semi would be overkill as a mobile charger. A much more moderate vehicle would do.

Party bus. Okay. I can see that.

Rolling billboard. Any vehicle can be a rolling billboard. This is an addendum, i.e., something you add to its principle use. It won't pay to buy it just for that.

Parting it out, bound to lose money. You'd only have one of each part and many of those would never be needed by anybody. "Parts" cars make sense only when you can get a car cheap and parts are otherwise hard to find.

Live in it: Yes! World's biggest and best mobile home. Outfitting it properly would be expensive, but if you can afford it, the best mobile home ever.

 

[NeverFollow]

I spent 20 minutes doing some very light research on how much owner/operators make,
and with the fuel savings there's a case to be made for paying a driver to operate with my truck.
Rough math says one could pocket $80k/yr.

Your model reminds me a little bit of Tesloop where you could build a delivery network based on supercharger locations.

So if your home, or the driver's home, is near a supercharger and you can come back home every night,
you could almost drive your truck all the day almost for free, before maintenance and insurance...

If you buy the truck for $150k and use it for 5 years, a loan would like $3,000 a month.
You would spend about the same amount to rent an office if you were self-employed.
So you can almost consider the Semi as an office.

You mentioned getting about $80k a year, I guess after paying all costs and taxes.
So I estimate that you should get about $160k to 200k a year of income before any expenses..
Since there are about 200 days of work a year, it's about $800 to $1,000 each working day.

if you work about 8 hours a day, and the overall travel speed would be about 20 to 30 miles per hours,
or 160 to 240 miles a day if you are driving locally, or twice as much if driving non-stop.

Roughly if you charge about $5 a mile for whatever trailer is attached to your semi, you might then make a living (?)

I have no idea if this is doable? Using $5 a mile, a 400 miles and 10 hours trip would be charged $2,000 or $200 an hour.

Note: This is just a school exercise, trying to understand your thought. I might also be wrong in my estimates.
However, running a business is certainly more complex and uncertain than this simple example.

 

[Olds442]

I would have reserved at $5k. Not at $20k though. Keep it and figure out by 2020 how to make it work best for you.

Plenty of short haul guys would take it on a lease. Make it a flat rate lease so you never lose. Hard to imagine that being difficult to do.