I've kept my nose out of this one to be honest, but I find it curious that it appears Kevin is using EPA figures when stating original range (245 miles) That's based on an economy figure of 21.7 kWh per 100 miles.
Regardless of whether you believe EPA range figures are indicative of real-world range or not (I don't) if EPA figures are used to calculate starting range then we should use those same figures to calculate theoretical maximum range now. Using that figure and the energy Kevin's car indicates from last night's test run, I come out with 204 miles.
I'm not going to get on any side here. But it's a distinction I believe we need to understand, especially since the delta is ~ 40 miles of range.
My 2011 Nissan LEAF is one of the highest-mileage cars here in the UK. It travels on average 80 miles a day, with a five minute top-up rapid charge in the morning as part of a high-speed commute (My wife drives it to Cardiff and back from Bristol on the freeway and prefers carefree life at 70 to life at 50). It currently has 62,300 miles on the clock.
Back in the spring, we lost the first capacity bar, and according to the third-party LEAFSpy app, we'll lose the second one fairly soon. Battery capacity is now about 80 percent of its original amount.
When new, I believe I managed about 84 miles on one trip, but that was really darned hard. A complete push. (That's better than EPA, but less than NEDC). A more realistic range for me when new was around 70 miles at sensible speeds, 60 at the "cruisin' at 70".
Recently, I made a trip from Bristol to Norwich, a total of about 260 miles, and had my daughter with me. We took it steadily, and I set the cruise control to 50 on the freeway. Despite climbing some fairly large hills (by UK standards) on the M4 between Bristol and Reading, I passed up on three chances to charge and made it to the Reading services DCQC -- a total of 72.5 miles from my house -- with 9 miles estimated range remaining.
A few days ago, I tried doing the same trip in my LEAF, but after 43 miles it was obvious I wasn't going to get the mojo working to get the distance I needed. I stopped and used the DCQC. Does this mean my LEAF has magically lost ten miles of range in a few weeks? No. It was just the simple fact that the weather was different, the traffic was different and I guess perhaps I was too. Maybe I missed a couple of key light changes and lost valuable energy. Maybe the tires weren't the same temperature.
In reality, I've driven a wide range of electric cars in my time as a journalist. I've managed to achieve some crazy ranges, and flatten the battery flat in no time. My daily driver (my wife's Volt, because she is driving my LEAF) manages 50 miles on 9.6 kWh of electricity if I'm really careful with my right foot. On a bad day, I can flatten it in 25.
I think when we're looking at range tests and suspected range loss cases, we need to look at more than just a few trips. Ideally, we need multiple trips, on a variety of roads.
It would be good too if Kevin could state the range he managed when new (sorry if he's already said it and I've missed it in this mammoth thread).
[To add a back story, and a disclaimer because I believe in stating previous connections. I did, briefly, work for ZCW (End of 2012 start of 2013) but decided that life in PR didn't suit my journalistic style and I wasn't enjoying my time there. Since then, I've had no professional relationship with Kevin or ZCW and have probably spoken to him a handful of times at events.]