$/kwh battery 100D

[Mark Harvey]

Assuming that Tesla does not seek to make profit from service as Elon has stated can we guide to a $/kWh for pack cost based on the prices of the 100D upgrade?

Since it is $20,000 for the upgrade from used 90D to a 100D, and assuming $2,000 cost for service/recycling (conservative) of the old pack. I'm guessing that the price of the entire pack is at most $18,000 ($20,000 - $2,000).

$18,000/100kwh = $180/kwh

That's pretty cheap huh?

 

[PRJIM]

I bet the battery is being refurbished and then put back into service. Not really recycled.

 

[Mark Harvey]

Assuming that Tesla does not seek to make profit from service as Elon has stated can we guide to a $/kWh for pack cost based on the prices of the 100D upgrade?

$180/kwh is super conservative too since even if we assumed that they were seeking a profit on the 100D upgrade then the the cost might be something like this for a 20% markup on the 100kwh batter pack:

($20,000 price to customer)*0.20 = $4,000 profit to tesla

Cost per pack = $20,000 - $4,000 profit to tesla - $2,000 service/recycling = $14,000

$14,000/100kwh = $140/kwh

Do you guys think im doing something wrong in these calculations?

 

[Derek Kessler]

The $20,000 is not the price of the 100kWh pack.

It's the price of the 100kWh pack plus labor and minus the value of your used 90kWh pack.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

$180/kwh is super conservative too since even if we assumed that they were seeking a profit on the 100D upgrade then the the cost might be something like this for a 20% markup on the 100kwh batter pack:

($20,000 price to customer)*0.20 = $4,000 profit to tesla

Cost per pack = $20,000 - $4,000 profit to tesla - $2,000 service/recycling = $14,000

$14,000/100kwh = $140/kwh

Do you guys think im doing something wrong in these calculations?

I think at end of the day it's the cost to the end buyer and not the price to produce that is important and tesla's mission to advance sustainability. That math is pretty close I would guess without the ability to break it down.

 

[Troy]

$18,000/100kwh = $180/kwh
That's pretty cheap huh?

Your calculation would have been correct if people could keep their old 90 kWh pack and sell it privately. Tesla's blog post says: "Existing P90D Ludicrous owners can also upgrade to a 100 kWh pack, but for $20,000, as their used 90 kWh pack will have to be recycled". By "recycling", I think they mean re-using them for warranty replacements.

The equation is more like this:
Used 90 kWh pack + $20,000 USD = New 100 kWh pack + installation

 

[Mark Harvey]

Your calculation would have been correct if people could keep their old 90 kWh pack and sell it privately. Tesla's blog post says: "Existing P90D Ludicrous owners can also upgrade to a 100 kWh pack, but for $20,000, as their used 90 kWh pack will have to be recycled". By "recycling", I think they mean re-using them for warranty replacements.

I see. I guess we don't for sure know what they are going to do with the old packs but I guess it makes sense to use them in warranty claim vehicles. Either way based on rough calculations it seems as though the actual $/kwh number is much lower than most analysts have in their existing financial models $250+. These things get my very excited as an investor.