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latest Morgan Stanley prediction

Morgan Stanley released a statement today, saying that they think there will just be 100 Model X's produced in Q3 2015. Followed by 3000 units in Q4. Like all analyst's predictions, take it with the grain of salt that it is printed on.

'"Heading into the earnings call, we continue to look for more details surrounding Model X execution - in particular, launch timing, speed of ramp and order back log," Jonas wrote. "Given the significance of this launch, we don't expect Tesla to cut any corners and believe Elon Musk and management are fully willing to sacrifice short-term profitability (via higher-than-expected up-front costs) to ensure a successful debut." Related Link: How The New Model S Will Impact Tesla's Sales And Stock Looking forward to the full fiscal year, Jonas is estimating Tesla will deliver approximately 51,000 units, falling short of the company's 55,000 unit guidance. The analyst added that he continues to expect the Model X to launch in the third quarter with deliveries of just 100 units followed by a large ramp in the fourth quarter with 3,000 units.'

Ron
SigX #1015


 
Reasonable to expect a ramp-up but with the tooling and production-line changes already in place 100 units in 3 months sounds unreasonably low. That's just over 1 car per day for the entire period. That's hand-built pace. There's "careful" and then there's "ridiculous". Let's see if I can beat Morgan Stanley with a prediction of 1000 units in Q3.
 
Morgan Stanley released a statement today, saying that they think there will just be 100 Model X's produced in Q3 2015. Followed by 3000 units in Q4. Like all analyst's predictions, take it with the grain of salt that it is printed on.

'Ramp' is all relative and depends entirely where/when Tesla starts production; they won't be producing one car per day from 7/1 through 9/30 and then suddenly jump to >30 per day from 10/1 through 12/31. It's probably safe to say that nobody (even inside Tesla) can today predict those exact production numbers with any hope of mild accuracy.
 

AnOutsider

S532 # XS27
Moderator
Apr 3, 2009
11,957
210
Reasonable to expect a ramp-up but with the tooling and production-line changes already in place 100 units in 3 months sounds unreasonably low. That's just over 1 car per day for the entire period. That's hand-built pace. There's "careful" and then there's "ridiculous". Let's see if I can beat Morgan Stanley with a prediction of 1000 units in Q3.

I don't expect Tesla to produce an X in July. They've been saying Q3 and late summer for a while, so I think the first X's will hit customers in late August at the earliest, but more likely early to mid-september.
 

timf

Active Member
Apr 14, 2013
1,044
171
Michigan
I'd put these numbers in the plausible category. While of course I would like to see much bigger numbers to get my Model X sooner, it would not surprise me if the numbers were this low. It would be consistent with the guidance we've been receiving. I can see them building the first couple hundred units in August and carefully reviewing them for a couple weeks for quality assurance, with deliveries then starting in September.

I do disagree with the analyst on Tesla missing the 55,000 annual target. Tesla said they could hit this number without delivering a single Model X, so I consider that a baseline and every Model X they deliver will be on top of this.
 

dirkhh

Middle-aged Member
Jul 7, 2013
3,638
128
Portland, OR, USA
I don't expect Tesla to produce an X in July. They've been saying Q3 and late summer for a while, so I think the first X's will hit customers in late August at the earliest, but more likely early to mid-september.
There are many skeptics of Tesla's ability to tell time and read calendars here on the forum :)
I have stated for quite a while that I expect at best a hand full of founders cars to be "presented as delivered" in Q3. So September 30th there'll be an event where the insiders get handed cars that they can drive off the lot with on YouTube (and which they return for "finishing touches" later that afternoon :-D ).
At some point in October bonnie gets hers. Slow ramp up from there to get at least the US Sigs out in Q4. If things go well with the first few hundred cars we might see a ramp that indeed gets us to 3000 cars. I actually have more than 3000 cars as my best case scenario (maybe even 5-6k if they manage to hit "800/week" by December), but I'm more thinking a slow ramp over 8 weeks will get us an average of about 400 a week so yeah, 3000 sounds about right.
And this is all wild speculation based on nothing but what I read here, what I've seen Tesla do in the past. No inside knowledge, no hidden agenda, I own Tesla shares. Any other disclaimers I have forgotten?
 

FredTMC

Model S VIN #4925
Dec 26, 2012
3,492
3,794
Orange County CA
I'd put these numbers in the plausible category. While of course I would like to see much bigger numbers to get my Model X sooner, it would not surprise me if the numbers were this low. It would be consistent with the guidance we've been receiving. I can see them building the first couple hundred units in August and carefully reviewing them for a couple weeks for quality assurance, with deliveries then starting in September.

I do disagree with the analyst on Tesla missing the 55,000 annual target. Tesla said they could hit this number without delivering a single Model X, so I consider that a baseline and every Model X they deliver will be on top of this.

yep. 100% agree. Tesla says they'll hit 55k. If they werebt comfortable they would've given lower number like 50k
 

Paul Carter

Active Member
Apr 27, 2013
1,735
510
Canada
There are many skeptics of Tesla's ability to tell time and read calendars here on the forum :)
I have stated for quite a while that I expect at best a hand full of founders cars to be "presented as delivered" in Q3. So September 30th there'll be an event where the insiders get handed cars that they can drive off the lot with on YouTube (and which they return for "finishing touches" later that afternoon :-D ).
At some point in October bonnie gets hers. Slow ramp up from there to get at least the US Sigs out in Q4. If things go well with the first few hundred cars we might see a ramp that indeed gets us to 3000 cars. I actually have more than 3000 cars as my best case scenario (maybe even 5-6k if they manage to hit "800/week" by December), but I'm more thinking a slow ramp over 8 weeks will get us an average of about 400 a week so yeah, 3000 sounds about right.
And this is all wild speculation based on nothing but what I read here, what I've seen Tesla do in the past. No inside knowledge, no hidden agenda, I own Tesla shares. Any other disclaimers I have forgotten?
That poor Canadians come second. :tongue:

Anyone hazard to guess how many US deliveries will be done before the global roll out)? I'd say 5k (3k California + 2k other states). Or should I lower expectations to 3k (2k California and 1k other states)? Global Signatures shipped in Jan/Feb 2016 with US still pumping to the end of the first quarter? Then over to 'normal' front quarter loading of overseas for Q2 and beyond like the S now?
 

dirkhh

Middle-aged Member
Jul 7, 2013
3,638
128
Portland, OR, USA
That poor Canadians come second. :tongue:

Anyone hazard to guess how many US deliveries will be done before the global roll out)? I'd say 5k (3k California + 2k other states). Or should I lower expectations to 3k (2k California and 1k other states)? Global Signatures shipped in Jan/Feb 2016 with US still pumping to the end of the first quarter? Then over to 'normal' front quarter loading of overseas for Q2 and beyond like the S now?
I was really hoping that there would be less than 3 months offset for the LHD countries. The P85D shipped to Canada within weeks of the US and to LHD Europe with less than 3 months delay. I'd assume something similar for Canada. So my guess would be Canadian Sigs soon after the first production cars ship in the US. So even in my pessimistic model you should get yours this year...
 
I was really hoping that there would be less than 3 months offset for the LHD countries. The P85D shipped to Canada within weeks of the US and to LHD Europe with less than 3 months delay. I'd assume something similar for Canada. So my guess would be Canadian Sigs soon after the first production cars ship in the US. So even in my pessimistic model you should get yours this year...
Thx. That would be nice, but not expecting it.
 
I'm curious... why? What do you think will be different from the P85D release? For the Model S they needed to start building sales stores and service centers and start the infrastructure, and they did that in the US first. Why would there be a MASSIVE delay in Canada?
US first (actually to be specific mostly California first as per Elon at a Norway event). Then a global roll-out according to the 2014 Form 10K / Annual Report
Model X
Our Model X crossover is the first vehicle we intend to develop by leveraging the Model S platform. This unique vehicle has been designed to offer the space and functionality of a sport utility vehicle while having high performance features such as our fully electric, all-wheel drive dual motor system. Model X will seat seven adults and incorporate a unique falcon wing door system for superior access to the second and third seating rows. We anticipate that the pricing of Model X will be similar to a comparably equipped Model S. We currently intend to begin customer deliveries of Model X in the third quarter of 2015. After its initial launch in the United States, Model X will be sold in all the markets where Model S is available including in Asia and Europe.
So, expecting California to get a lot of deliveries so they can keep a close watch on things. Then more US deliveries before global roll-out.
 

dirkhh

Middle-aged Member
Jul 7, 2013
3,638
128
Portland, OR, USA
US first (actually to be specific mostly California first as per Elon at a Norway event). Then a global roll-out according to the 2014 Form 10K / Annual Report

So, expecting California to get a lot of deliveries so they can keep a close watch on things. Then more US deliveries before global roll-out.
I'd call you a pragmatic pessimist - but that wasn't at all the vibe I got from you the couple of times we've met in person... strange...
 
US first (actually to be specific mostly California first as per Elon at a Norway event). Then a global roll-out according to the 2014 Form 10K / Annual Report

So, expecting California to get a lot of deliveries so they can keep a close watch on things. Then more US deliveries before global roll-out.

California first might make sense with the first 10 or 20 cars, after that they'd just tick off all the east coast low reservation numbers if they make us wait too long out of turn.
 

dirkhh

Middle-aged Member
Jul 7, 2013
3,638
128
Portland, OR, USA
California first might make sense with the first 10 or 20 cars, after that they'd just tick off all the east coast low reservation numbers if they make us wait too long out of turn.
And I don't really see how shipping to Saratosa, FL, is less effort and easier than shipping to Vancouver, BC.
So yeah, maybe the first week or two will be California, but after that I'm betting all of North America. I wouldn't be surprised if (just like with the P85D) they waited a couple of months before putting the first on a boat to Europe, but North America should all be one group.
I'm actually re-thinking my earlier comment that they'd ship all the US Sigs before starting the Canada Sigs. Even that does not really make sense. Sadly there were no Sig reservations for the P85D, so we can't use that as an example.
 
And I don't really see how shipping to Saratosa, FL, is less effort and easier than shipping to Vancouver, BC.
So yeah, maybe the first week or two will be California, but after that I'm betting all of North America. I wouldn't be surprised if (just like with the P85D) they waited a couple of months before putting the first on a boat to Europe, but North America should all be one group.
I'm actually re-thinking my earlier comment that they'd ship all the US Sigs before starting the Canada Sigs. Even that does not really make sense. Sadly there were no Sig reservations for the P85D, so we can't use that as an example.

Canada has different specs to U.S. cars; maybe minor differences but it mildly messes up production runs. Actually it makes sense to produce the U.S. Sigs and then the Canadian ones.
 

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