Leaf, then Model S?

[sp4rk]

I am (back) on the list for my Model S. High 8,000's. Was high 1,000.

Question ... I am seriously thinking about taking delivery of a (non-committed but "ordered") 2012 Nissan Leaf while waiting, as I highly doubt my S will be delivered much before December 2013.

Impatient to get off gas!

So, when it comes time to trade in the Leaf, anyone with a crystal ball have any idea how much it might depreciate?

(I've driven a Hybrid for 5 years and am unimpressed with its MPG.)

 

[NigelM]

You're probably better off asking that question over here: http://www.mynissanleaf.com/

 

[TEG]

There is a model update coming for the 2013 model year LEAF.
Improvements there may affect resale value on the 2011 & 2012 s...

 

[Sparrow]

I looked at Edmunds for their Used car value and my 2011 Leaf with 7500 miles came out as worth over $27,000 as a trade in. That doesn't make any sense since in Georgia with the $7500 Federal credit and the $5000 State credit, you can buy a new one for less than that.

 

[crzyskl]

I highly doubt my S will be delivered much before December 2013.

(I've driven a Hybrid for 5 years and am unimpressed with its MPG.)

Someone correct me if i am wrong, but if the total reservations right now are around 11,000 and they plan on delivering 5000 this year and then another 20,000 (5,000/quarter) annually, then I imagine if i we do the math, you would get delivery in Q2 of 2013. I am P6398 and have been told to expect delivery in Q1 of 2013.

What Hybird do you drive? My 2010 Prius has gotten me 54 mpg since ownership. Combo city/highway driving. Just city driving and it gets 58-60 mpg.

 

[ElSupreme]

... I highly doubt my S will be delivered much before December 2013.

If Telsa is even close to their ramp up speeds I highly suspect you would gain delivery of your Model S about this time (maybe a bit earlier) next year. They plan on making 20,000 units in 2013. And I fully suspect they will get to desired production speed in 2012. I expect 5,000 units to be delivered each quarter of 2013. You should get yours in Arpil time frame based on the current estimated reservation level.

 

[Bearman]

According to edmunds.com the estimated numbers for the Leaf SV are:

Year	Depreciation
1:	$6,189
2:	$4,415
3:	$3,884

http://www.edmunds.com/nissan/leaf/2011/tco.html

These numbers doesn't include the federal tax credit ($7500) and i am not familiar how it works, if you can have it and sell the car after a year and get it on the Model S after that also.

 

[sp4rk]

crzyskl

I drive a Lexus 400h, not a Prius. Don't go there ...

My res nr. is in the 8400 range and I rejoined the list this week. Where do you get 11000?

 

[ElSupreme]

crzyskl

I drive a Lexus 400h, not a Prius. Don't go there ...

My res nr. is in the 8400 range and I rejoined the list this week. Where do you get 11000?

1000 Signatures. Along with some Canadian and European cars not on either list.

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/5747-Model-S-Tally

 

[rabar10]

My res nr. is in the 8400 range and I rejoined the list this week. Where do you get 11000?

See the first post in the Model S Tally thread. The 11k number included worldwide reservations.

There are ~1700 Signature and 'Roadster friends/family' reservation numbers prior to general production P1, so I think your car will be roughly US number 10,100.

(Edit -- didn't see ElS's nearly identical post - too slow...)

May we ask why you dropped your first reservation, and then why you re-reserved? Welcome back, regardless, and welcome to the forums as well!

 

[EVNow]

If Telsa is even close to their ramp up speeds I highly suspect you would gain delivery of your Model S about this time (maybe a bit earlier) next year. They plan on making 20,000 units in 2013. And I fully suspect they will get to desired production speed in 2012. I expect 5,000 units to be delivered each quarter of 2013. You should get yours in Arpil time frame based on the current estimated reservation level.

If EV history is anything to go by - we should only expect 50% of those numbers delivered. So about 15k by the end of '13.

 

[sp4rk]

Dropped it simply due to work relocation to another continent. And lost faith somewhere that Tesla was not vaporware.

Now back, looked at Leaf, and realised it was nothing like the Tesla ... saw "Revenge of the Electric Car" ... and realized that Elon (and to a lesser extent Ghosn) had enough passion, foresight, energy and backers ... got that "feelgood" back; then went to showroom near me and saw the Model S in the "flesh".

You either GET it or you DON'T. And we here get it.

And started weeping "uncontrollably" that I had let them down back then.

 

[daniel]

These numbers doesn't include the federal tax credit ($7500) and i am not familiar how it works, if you can have it and sell the car after a year and get it on the Model S after that also.

If you buy the car with the intention of re-selling it, you do not qualify for the tax credit. Since that's a tricky matter to prove, the IRS considers the length of time you keep the car. I do not know if there's a specific, set, length of time you are required to keep it, but the IRS (on their public phone line) told me that if you keep it less than a year it will raise serious questions about whether you qualify. If you claim the tax credit but sell the Leaf within a year of buying it, you could end up facing tax fraud charges.

And the person you sell it to cannot claim the credit either, because only new cars qualify. Thus if an EV is bought and then sold too soon, nobody gets the tax credit on it.

 

[sp4rk]

Thank you for a most interesting reply.

I have no intention of committing tax fraud.

I can understand why the person who buys it from me would not benefit, but I am surprised there's a time limit.

After all, when I go to resell the car, say in just 1 month, I lose the value on the car as I cannot get the tax credit back.

The purpose of the tax credit is, if I am not mistaken, to GET EV's on the road, which I will have done.

I'll check with my acct on this.

As it is, if I took delivery of the Leaf tomorrow, I would not be able to get the tax credit til I file again in April 2013, right?

(Or does the dealer do it for me at time of delivery using a tax form then and there?)

 

[rabar10]

Dropped it simply due to work relocation to another continent. And lost faith somewhere that Tesla was not vaporware.

Now back, looked at Leaf, and realised it was nothing like the Tesla ... saw "Revenge of the Electric Car" ... and realized that Elon (and to a lesser extent Ghosn) had enough passion, foresight, energy and backers ... got that "feelgood" back; then went to showroom near me and saw the Model S in the "flesh".

You either GET it or you DON'T. And we here get it.

And started weeping "uncontrollably" that I had let them down back then.

Thanks for sharing your reply.

Aside from the work relocation issue, this also speaks to the power of intangibles -- 'feelgood' and 'getting it' vs. not. Enjoy your future EVing, whenever and with whichever car that will be!

 

[sp4rk]

And you too ...

 

[vfx]

Talked with a guy at one of the Earthday EVnts who had a Leaf. It's range was just short of him getting to work where he had installed a 2nd plug. He did not know much about Tesla (I got the impression he was looking at all the EVs that were there). When we were done he was either going to get a Roadster (used) or a Model S. It quite simply was a better choice for him. His Leaf would go to his son.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Rep at Tesla's Santana Row store told another customer that there was a waiting list for "about this time next year." So, I'd expect to see Sp4rk's vehicle shipping ~April 2013.

@EVNow, I don't think that the 50% drop factor is going to be a good indicator for the Model S. A $5k or $40k reservation (albeit refundable) indicates a much higher degree of forethought and commitment than the typical $100 fee we saw on other vehicles.

 

[doug]

Why don't you just lease the Leaf. I think in that case the dealer gets the rebate and it's factored into the price of the lease.

 

[sp4rk]

Then I am stuck with the Leaf for 39 months; their standard lease terms.

The Model X will be history.

And if I get moved again, I want to be able to unload easily.

As for deposit amounts on other cars, Nissan sent an email out about 2 weeks ago saying that even the $99 deposit is being scrapped.

I think people on the Tesla list are VERY serious.