Leaf -vs- Volt

[SByer]

Oh, I'm not saying there aren't circumstances for which the Volt won't still look good, but gas is still extraordinarily subsidized - it's not a free market when it's been tilted like that. Especially when it's been tilted that way for so many decades. It's really impossible to compare the Volt and Leaf properly as long as that market damage is occurring. And the average joe isn't going to put any weight behind those direct upstream subsidies and unpriced externalities of gas. The sad part is that this has caused over-use far further into the peak oil curve than otherwise, and so I'd bet that the price of gas over the next decade - subsidies or not - will shock people.

 

[JRP3]

I recently made a similar point when arguing with someone complaining about "his taxes" going to subsidize EV's while he drives an ICE. I pointed out that all of us pay taxes, a large percentage of which goes to keep the price of gas artificially low at the pump. I'm sure the subsidies we pay to prop up our oil economy are far higher than the subsidies we pay to help promote EV's.

 

[ljbad4life]

Oh, I'm not saying there aren't circumstances for which the Volt won't still look good, but gas is still extraordinarily subsidized - it's not a free market when it's been tilted like that. Especially when it's been tilted that way for so many decades. It's really impossible to compare the Volt and Leaf properly as long as that market damage is occurring. And the average joe isn't going to put any weight behind those direct upstream subsidies and unpriced externalities of gas. The sad part is that this has caused over-use far further into the peak oil curve than otherwise, and so I'd bet that the price of gas over the next decade - subsidies or not - will shock people.

Subsidies or not electricity is still far cheaper. Even as it stands a 300 mile trip would cost $10-20 for an electric car as opposed to $40-60 in an ICE powered one, Why wouldn't people want that? I look at places like CA, WA and Oregon where EVs are selling the fastest and it's because there's infrastructure.

My sister bought a Volt, why? she wanted a LEAF, but no charging stations really killed that idea. IMHO build the infrastructure and the EVs will come.

 

[Jaff]

I think that the low range of the Leaf is hurting Leaf sales, and conversely, helping Volt sales.

If the Leaf had a "Roadsterish" range of over 200 miles, I think that some Volt owners would have chosen a Leaf instead...infrastructure aside.

We have literally zero public Roadster infrastructure here in Ontario...doesn't stop me from taking 2-300 km trips...

 

[Mycroft]

I agree Jaff. With a real-world range of only ~80 miles, it only works for those with a short commute (or a work site with accessible charging). It certainly wouldn't work for me. That said, there are a lot of folks with that short of a commute, so I think sales will be strong in urban areas. The Model S can't come soon enough!

 

[stopcrazypp]

I think that the low range of the Leaf is hurting Leaf sales, and conversely, helping Volt sales.

It might have converted some Leaf sales to Volt sales, but at this point neither are demand constrained so Nissan won't really see any effects from this.

I still think a smaller battery and a lower MSRP does make some sense though (I'm sure the price tag of the Volt has eliminated some potential buyers). Perhaps they can make one with more range in the future when demand gets lower than supply for the current Leaf.

 

[Doug_G]

We have literally zero public Roadster infrastructure here in Ontario...doesn't stop me from taking 2-300 km trips...

Yep, absolute zero. Nada. Zip.

The Ontario government is planning to install some J1772's at GO train stations around Toronto, which may be useful for some Leaf drivers who hypothetically might live more than 50 km from the station. Not that there are any Leaf drivers yet. But that's of little or no use for Tesla owners. No one drives 200 km to go to a GO train station. What we need is 70A power along the 401.

Right now I'm using an RV campground for road trip charging, but the KOA is too close to Ottawa and too far from Toronto. That means I have to sit and wait for a full Range Mode top-up, drive more slowly than I'd like (I hate being passed by rigs), and the car is whining about low battery when I arrive. Hopefully Tesla will get that HPC installed in Kingston soon! That will make a huge difference.

 

[Jaff]

I agree stop...Nissan won't really see much effect until more demand and more competition (within their target Leaf price) occur.

It might have converted some Leaf sales to Volt sales, but at this point neither are demand constrained so Nissan won't really see any effects from this.

I still think a smaller battery and a lower MSRP does make some sense though (I'm sure the price tag of the Volt has eliminated some potential buyers). Perhaps they can make one with more range in the future when demand gets lower than supply for the current Leaf.

 

[Jaff]

Yep, the 70 amp chargers on the 400 series highways (major freeways) can't come soon enough...we need one on the QEW in Niagara & one on the 401 out Guelph or Woodstock way as well...

Yep, absolute zero. Nada. Zip.

The Ontario government is planning to install some J1772's at GO train stations around Toronto, which may be useful for some Leaf drivers who hypothetically might live more than 50 km from the station. Not that there are any Leaf drivers yet. But that's of little or no use for Tesla owners. No one drives 200 km to go to a GO train station. What we need is 70A power along the 401.

Right now I'm using an RV campground for road trip charging, but the KOA is too close to Ottawa and too far from Toronto. That means I have to sit and wait for a full Range Mode top-up, drive more slowly than I'd like (I hate being passed by rigs), and the car is whining about low battery when I arrive. Hopefully Tesla will get that HPC installed in Kingston soon! That will make a huge difference.

 

[richkae]

Don't trust the government to put in chargers for you!
They will put in the crappy 30 amp ones - and in the wrong locations - and you will be sad.

I wanted an HPC between Seattle and Portland, so I found a restaurant that was about half way that was run by very green minded people. They buy all clean power, use organic ingredients and hug trees with the best of them. I was going to buy an HPC and donate it to them, so I called up the company and managed to talk to the CEO. A short while later the HPC was installed at the restaurant, and I didn't even have to pay for it, Tesla donated it. We're running out of time on the Tesla referral program where you get an HPC installed where you want it, but I think it still makes sense to buy one on your own.
If you can get 2 or 3 other Tesla owners to split it with you, its not much if you can get the business owner to pay for the install.

Now whenever I drive between Seattle and Portland, I stop in for a while and have a bite while I top up.

 

[richkae]

I think that the low range of the Leaf is hurting Leaf sales, and conversely, helping Volt sales.

If the Leaf had a "Roadsterish" range of over 200 miles, I think that some Volt owners would have chosen a Leaf instead...infrastructure aside.

We have literally zero public Roadster infrastructure here in Ontario...doesn't stop me from taking 2-300 km trips...

Very few would be happy with a Leaf as their only car. Almost everybody would be happy with a Leaf as one of their two cars. The Leaf has to target two+ car families.

 

[EVNow]

Very few would be happy with a Leaf as their only car. Almost everybody would be happy with a Leaf as one of their two cars. The Leaf has to target two+ car families.

Yes - I keep pointing this out to all sceptics - there are more than 60 Million US familes with 2 or more vehicles.

 

[vfx]

Very few would be happy with a Leaf as their only car. Almost everybody would be happy with a Leaf as one of their two cars. The Leaf has to target two+ car families.

Stats from Leaf owners are coming in.

Despite the widespread belief that people will buy range-limited electric cars for second or even third cars, Nissan says that for most owners the Leaf is their primary driver.

 

[richkae]

I think that is entirely because EV crazy early adopters like us are skewing the numbers ( the very few ). The only people who have Leafs now have been on the waiting list forever.
When Nissan burns through the early adopters and starts selling to the "general public" I expect that to change.

 

[vfx]

I think that is entirely because EV crazy early adopters like us are skewing the numbers ( the very few ). The only people who have Leafs now have been on the waiting list forever.
When Nissan burns through the early adopters and starts selling to the "general public" I expect that to change.

I have to agree and it should be interesting to watch. Maybe the MPC will be higher by that time making the "crazy" point moot.

 

[JRP3]

I think that the low range of the Leaf is hurting Leaf sales, and conversely, helping Volt sales.

Can't be hurting too much, since LEAF's are sold out in advance and have sold more than the Volt. Also the LEAF outsold some hybrid models from Honda, CRZ, Civic Hybrid, and Insight.

 

[GSP]

It really is quite impressive outselling the Honda hybrids, whose sales were not production constrained like the Leaf. I did not expect a 73-mile car could do that. Nissan might have found a sweet spot of enough range and low cost that will allow them to meet their aggressive sales targets.

Carlos Ghosn claims that his only problem is making enough Leafs to meet demand. It will be real interesting to see the Leaf and Volt US sales numbers once both cars are available nationwide with enough production to meet demand.

GSP

 

[Jaff]

True JRP, but Nissan might have had a few more reservations in the queue that have been lost to the Volt...might be a moot number though...

Can't be hurting too much, since LEAF's are sold out in advance and have sold more than the Volt. Also the LEAF outsold some hybrid models from Honda, CRZ, Civic Hybrid, and Insight.

 

[EVNow]

Stats from Leaf owners are coming in.
Despite the widespread belief that people will buy range-limited electric cars for second or even third cars, Nissan says that for most owners the Leaf is their primary driver.

That is different - Leaf is my primary car - but I've access to my wife's ICE.

 

[EVNow]

I think that is entirely because EV crazy early adopters like us are skewing the numbers ( the very few ). The only people who have Leafs now have been on the waiting list forever.
When Nissan burns through the early adopters and starts selling to the "general public" I expect that to change.

I think it will be a hard sell. Nissan will finish the 7k orders next month. May be they will sell 7K more to rest of the country by the end of the year. Then thet have to start selling instead of just delivering as they do now.

My Nissan Leaf Forum View topic - What happens after 7,000 Leaf orders are filled next month?