Leak: “every other car off the line is the X”

[Macgaver]

Numbers are really close from the graph I posted some weeks ago (based on Elon's statements and the "Several Hundreds = ~200" theory).

Here updated graph with the 1-Jan facts. It help guess when your # will reach you !

 

[Aljohn]

wow.. Macgaver... you nailed it. Your total produced was "spot on". Also the number produced a week is what Tesla published. Hope your are right, which would meant I have about 60 days!!!! :biggrin: Do you know Elon?

 

[dwebb66]

It help guess when your # will reach you !

As we do not know how many production owners have configured P90D/90D/70D, it is not possible to know when you could expect your car to be developed or delivered. For example I nearly reservation # 10,000 (June delivery in your chart), but if 30% ordered a non-P version then it would move the delivery to May. Looking at the dates, it does work opportunity about the same ;-)

Does anyone have any SWAGs as to how many production owners are not ordering a P model? The ModelXTracker is showing about 40% have selected the standard configuration; this would mean that over 50% are getting a non-P version as all Founders and Signature are P90Ds.

 

[Macgaver]

Indeed the P vs Standard will help bypass the line.

By the way, in modelXtracker, when looking at the stats I avoid using the "All" and only look at the reserved/ordered entries. We then see 70% going non-P , which make sense and probably help explain why the 90D is now starting before mid-2016

 

[PeterK]

Indeed the P vs Standard will help bypass the line.

By the way, in modelXtracker, when looking at the stats I avoid using the "All" and only look at the reserved/ordered entries. We then see 70% going non-P , which make sense and probably help explain why the 90D is now starting before mid-2016

What's your source for that info on 90D timing? I just got access to the Design Studio on Monday, and it's showing mid 2016 for the 90D and early 2016 for the P90D. Could that be tied to my reservation number (12,847)?

 

[Hawkeye]

PeterK, I got my email invite on dec 28. At that time, the website was saying early 2016 for 90D models. By the time I finalized my choice for my 90D on Wednesday it had slipped to mid 2016. So either, the first 10000 reservations were less than Tesla was expecting for the P90D orders so they moved up the delivery estimates for the 90D or they are scaling up production faster.

 

[goneskiian]

Numbers are really close from the graph I posted some weeks ago (based on Elon's statements and the "Several Hundreds = ~200" theory).

Here updated graph with the 1-Jan facts. It help guess when your # will reach you !

View attachment 106576

I remember you posting this but can't seem to find it. Do you recall which thread it was in? Thanks.

 

[Macgaver]

Good thing with this forum is that if you click my nickname, there is a view with all my post history. My initial graphic was shared Nov 27th

 

[goneskiian]

Good thing with this forum is that if you click my nickname, there is a view with all my post history. My initial graphic was shared Nov 27th

I tried that but didn't click on every entry. Thanks for the date, that helped. ;-)