Leaked email - plans for 6000/wk by June

[bro1999]

I admit that I found the email fascinating but it left me uneasy. Tesla sounds like a pressure cooker.

How would you like to be a line worker at Fremont? I wonder if they'll even get days off once the factory gets back online? Or if they do take a day off, that'll mean taking a permanent vacation from Tesla, as they'll need to seek other employment.

 

[kengchang]

How would you like to be a line worker at Fremont? I wonder if they'll even get days off once the factory gets back online? Or if they do take a day off, that'll mean taking a permanent vacation from Tesla, as they'll need to seek other employment.

Pretty sure Tesla is running 3 shifts with 4-5 groups of people to stay 40 hours a week.

 

[Yggdrasill]

I think they went for 12 hour days a while back. So I'm thinking you'd have 14 shifts total through the week, and then each worker has to work 3 shifts one week and 4 shifts the next week. That works out to 42 hours per week average. Three or four days off work every week wouldn't be so bad.

 

[Ryan P]

My expectations for Model 3 production is now something along these lines:

Q1: 10,000
Q2: 32,000
Q3: 60,000
Q4: 72,000

174,000 for the full year.

500,000 preorders / 175,000 =

2 years, 10 months wait if you reserve today!

 

[Yggdrasill]

500,000 preorders / 175,000 =

2 years, 10 months wait if you reserve today!

Well, not really, as the production rate is ever-increasing. Looking a bit further, it might be something like this:

2018 Q1: 10,000, 12,500 total
2018 Q2: 32,000, 44,500 total
2018 Q3: 60,000, 104,500 total
2018 Q4: 72,000, 176,500 total
2019 Q1: 72,000, 248,500 total
2019 Q2: 72,000, 320,500 total
2019 Q3: 96,000, 416,500 total
2019 Q4: 120,000, 536,500 total

So, new reservations might be delivered late 2019, or about 1 year and 6 months. And this assumes no cancellations.

 

[FlyF4]

At first I’d inferred “root bear” was a play on words relating bears to sloths... a real groaner. Upon the realization that it may have been merely a typo, I am relieved and the pun police are placated.

That's cute. Not really a typo since the "A" isn't that close to the "E". Siri can't understand my hick accent. Too lazy to correct her. She thinks when I say "BEER", I am talking about a "BEAR". And yes I actually had to type this because she misunderstood me again. oh well.

 

[FlyF4]

I'm with you. They were going to struggle to hit 5k, let alone 6k. LOL

I guess you missed the mention from Elon that he has created a time warp through a black hole that will allow meeting the 6K cars per week. In fact the latest calculation and claim is that T will be able to manufacture 20,000 cars per day under the new time warp method, so 6,000 per week is a piece of cake to start.

In all seriousness, I hope they really can meet that lofty quota, but it seems way out there.

 

[jelloslug]

How would you like to be a line worker at Fremont? I wonder if they'll even get days off once the factory gets back online? Or if they do take a day off, that'll mean taking a permanent vacation from Tesla, as they'll need to seek other employment.

I'm sure that Tesla employs burly, leather clad people with sturdy whips to walk among the cars and "reinforce" the mandatory rules of the factory.

 

[jsmay311]

Please refer anyone you know who you think meets the Tesla bar for talent, drive and trust. Between Fremont and Giga, Tesla will be adding about 400 people per week for several weeks.

Yikes. That's a lot of new people to train in a very short period. That seems concerning, frankly.

Most of the design tolerances of the Model 3 are already better than any other car in the world. Soon, they will all be better. This is not enough. We will keep going until the Model 3 build precision is a factor of ten better than any other car in the world. I am not kidding.

Our car needs to be designed and built with such accuracy and precision that, if an owner measures dimensions, panel gaps and flushness, and their measurements don’t match the Model 3 specs, it just means that their measuring tape is wrong.

These comments seem utterly delusional to me.

I'm a design engineer that works with design/manufacturing tolerances (although not in the auto industry), and I honestly don't know wtf he's talking about here, or if he even has any idea what he's talking about. The tighter your tolerances on a part or assembly, the higher the cost (generally... especially if going beyond industry standards, which is explicitly what he's saying here). Beating everyone else by a factor of 10(?!) is not as simple as willing it to happen, which is how this statement comes off. And beating a tape measure is just a monumentally stupid thing to say.

And, conspiracy theories aside, how does it jive that Model 3 build quality has been widely lambasted by auto industry professionals and (many) owners alike for basic things like panel gaps and poorly fit seals, and at the same time it's "already better than any other car in the world"???

 

[Boarderbry]

Yikes. That's a lot of new people to train in a very short period. That seems concerning, frankly.



These comments seem utterly delusional to me.

I'm a design engineer that works with design/manufacturing tolerances (although not in the auto industry), and I honestly don't know wtf he's talking about here, or if he even has any idea what he's talking about. The tighter your tolerances on a part or assembly, the higher the cost (generally... especially if going beyond industry standards, which is explicitly what he's saying here). Beating everyone else by a factor of 10(?!) is not as simple as willing it to happen, which is how this statement comes off. And beating a tape measure is just a monumentally stupid thing to say.

And, conspiracy theories aside, how does it jive that Model 3 build quality has been widely lambasted by auto industry professionals and (many) owners alike for basic things like panel gaps and poorly fit seals, and at the same time it's "already better than any other car in the world"???

Agreed. He's a biting off more than he can chew. If people are paying for a product (an expensive one) quality should be on point..

 

[Fusion]

I hope they build my car with the original crew and not the "in training" team.

 

[T34ME]

500,000 preorders / 175,000 =

2 years, 10 months wait if you reserve today!

Not in my experience. I just ordered a second model 3 yesterday (I haven't been invited to configure my first one yet) and I was given a delivery date of "late 2018." YMMV.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Also, did you note the point about cutting capital expenses? I sure hope the Supercharger expansion isn't on the chopping block.

 

[Moderatefan]

build quality has been widely lambasted by auto industry professionals and (many) owners alike for basic things like panel gaps and poorly fit seals, and at the same time it's "already better than any other car in the world"???

HAS BEEN is not the same as IS. We all hope that major improvements are taking place, which seems to be the case based on feedback in this forum. I am certainly optimistic looking at how many complaints from the first months of production have been addressed.

 

[dhanson865]

Interesting reply, thanks.
I have to admit that I was thinking of the person who leaked the email

considering all the references to suppliers I assumed he sent the email to people outside the company in addition to internal employees.

Either they sent it to so many people it is reasonable to assume multiple people or companies shared the letter or they sent it out to press channels as well.

But just reading it I assumed they sent it to the suppliers and a supplier sent it on to the press.

 

[dhanson865]

how does it jive that Model 3 build quality has been widely lambasted by auto industry professionals and (many) owners alike for basic things like panel gaps and poorly fit seals, and at the same time it's "already better than any other car in the world"???

It may be hard for you to understand but time exists. Someone can say something in Dec 2017 and someone else say something in April 2018 and both can be true even if they disagree if taken out of context.

 

[Dansplans]

Indeed I am...



As an avid Tesla watcher for 10 years now, I can tell you one thing with certainty. Dingers gonna ding.

It doesn't matter whether Tesla makes progress or not. It doesn't matter whether they meet their stated goals or come up short. It doesn't matter that they created a new American automobile manufacturing operation from scratch in 10 years (in California !) and kicking everyone's behind. Tesla could cover every square inch of the Earth's surface with Model 3 cars and the media would ding them for not creating more reclaimed land from the ocean to fill with new cars. For the media, its all about getting eyeballs on their website, and any Tesla story, especially negative Tesla stories, do exactly that.

I can say maybe one more thing with certainty... If you or anyone are waiting for the "media" to recognize that Tesla in general and Elon specifically are actually going about changing the world for the better, that is the path to endless frustration.

Tesla is taking hundreds of millions of dollars of business away from established companies, and it is only going to snowball from here. These dinosaurs and their paid politicians are not going down without a fight, and part of the fight is to get their "media" friends whom they support with advertising dollars to spread Tesla FUD from sea to shining sea, 24/7. Once you see this and understand what is going on, the world makes much more sense.

Every car manufacturer periodically shuts down assembly lines to fine tune them. Tesla does it and it is from page news. When did you last read a story about Fiat shutting down an assembly line to improve production?

RT

 

[Jeff Hudson]

Ouch...the implication of that letter is that Tesla is like EVERY OTHER BIG CORPORATION. All of those things he is railing about are classic big company problems and despite folks routinely proclaiming "Tesla is different", it looks like they have fallen into the same bureaucratic culture as every other big company (otherwise why is he trying to address them). One thing is for sure, it didn't get that way over night and it sure as heck won't correct overnight...unfortunate.

I would point out Tesla is learning and attempting to do something extremely hard and that what they are doing is even difficult for an established auto manufacturer to do.

 

[cab]

Elon ranting about the use of acronyms is nothing new, see the book by Ashlee Vance how he addressed that some years ago.

Yeah, except it's not just acronyms. It was everything from acronyms to meetings to communication to....well, you get the idea.

 

[Cheburashka]

Yikes. That's a lot of new people to train in a very short period. That seems concerning, frankly.



These comments seem utterly delusional to me.

I'm a design engineer that works with design/manufacturing tolerances (although not in the auto industry), and I honestly don't know wtf he's talking about here, or if he even has any idea what he's talking about. The tighter your tolerances on a part or assembly, the higher the cost (generally... especially if going beyond industry standards, which is explicitly what he's saying here). Beating everyone else by a factor of 10(?!) is not as simple as willing it to happen, which is how this statement comes off. And beating a tape measure is just a monumentally stupid thing to say.

And, conspiracy theories aside, how does it jive that Model 3 build quality has been widely lambasted by auto industry professionals and (many) owners alike for basic things like panel gaps and poorly fit seals, and at the same time it's "already better than any other car in the world"???

Yeah but this is Elon metrics we are talking about here. Arbitrary and out of touch with reality, just like the manufacturing timelines.

Is it possible to pay extra for a car that wasn't assembled at night by someone who was swiftly hired?