There is no battery cell shortage, the 24GWh yearly pace mentioned in April is enough for some 85k Model 3 per quarter, depending on mix and Panasonic made it very clear that starting with June, output and yield will improve significantly.
Tax credit will have very little impact on Q3, the real problem is that Q2 had a lot of reservation holders for /SRSR+ globally and all versions in the UK while Q3 has almost none.
Even demand for Q2 is far from clear at this point as the 50k orders mentioned in the email could contain 20-30k reservation holders. Tesla isn't doing much to help demand yet, they are still focused on maximizing margins so they are either screwing up or demand is sufficient for now.
Q4 might have lots of reservation holders in China, assuming most are waiting for local output and lower prices.
End of June rush is unlikely as Tesla entered Q2 with some 17-18k M3 inventory plus in transit and they are not gonna drain that. They would likely push on the refreshed S&X side, if demand is higher than production but it's unclear where demand and production are right now for these - the recent price cuts for S&X do suggest demand a bit bellow production.
Tesla needs to stop maximizing margins at the customer's expense and work on the very opposite to nurture demand for both Model 3 and Model Y . They also need to do 100 times more on the PR and IR side or the press is gonna kill them.
With M3, the gap in range between SR and LR is maybe too high, SR and SR+ are not quite appealing enough while LR costs quite a bunch. A smaller gap would hit mix so ASPs and margins while increasing costs, quite problematic but they might have to do it, maybe at least revive the Mid Range model. They have options to boost demand but they are gonna keep torturing everybody by trying to maximize margins while creating just enough demand.
