Lease Residual and MF

[MikeyJS]

Does anyone know what the Residual and MF rates are for the MS leases? The website doesn't give any info on what the cost to buy is after the lease term.

Thanks

 

[goofygrin]

I can virtually guarantee you won't want to buy after the lease... Between new hardware and the model 3 I foresee high depreciation...

 

[MikeyJS]

Its not that I would want to. I am just curious how the monthly payment comes out. It looks like if you add the down payment, 7500 tax credit, and monthly payments then residual on a 2/10k lease is something like 60% (which seems pretty low)

 

[goofygrin]

Yes they feel low compared to other high line vehicles. The mf is for sure high.

 

[chillaban]

60% residual is low? Maybe for highly subsidized leases like with BMW and certain Mercedes models, but I've seen more around the 49/50/51 mark for 36mo residuals on luxury cars, especially if you don't want one of the promotional under-optioned stock configurations...

 

[number12]

You do not really get the full 7500 on a lease. MF is high. Depreciation will also be high.. also very bad lease terms in most state tax wise.

 

[Swissmoneychf]

After 4 years mine will be CHF 44'890.93

But I plan to sell it after 2-3 years max.

 

[sbtz]

The way their leasing calculator site does it is (on a Model S 60, 36mo 10k/yr):

(MSRP x .56) + 7500 fed rebate = residual

What terms are you looking at?

 

[MikeyJS]

Yeah i guess I am used to my BMW lease where my 36/15K lease has a residual of 56% an a MF under .001 (using multiple security deposits). Usually I feel that you are better off doing a lease for short term ownership. But with the lease numbers it seems like you might just be better off financing. If sbtz's numbers are correct, then residual on a 67200 MS would be 30,132. I haven't seen a used one going anywhere that amount...

 

[sbtz]

Yeah i guess I am used to my BMW lease where my 36/15K lease has a residual of 56% an a MF under .001 (using multiple security deposits). Usually I feel that you are better off doing a lease for short term ownership. But with the lease numbers it seems like you might just be better off financing. If sbtz's numbers are correct, then residual on a 67200 MS would be 30,132. I haven't seen a used one going anywhere that amount...

That'd be 67200 x .54 + 7500 = 43788 (65%). I also come from the bimmer world and miss MSDs. Last 4 cars have been BMWs, but the moment I test drove a Tesla...

 

[MikeyJS]

Yes, I agree with the 43,788. But the 65% would be amount paid off. So residual would be 35%...

 

[sbtz]

Yes, I agree with the 43,788. But the 65% would be amount paid off. So residual would be 35%...

We might be saying the same thing, but 65% is the residual (as in the projected value of the car at the end of the lease period, usually the pay-off amount). The lessee is responsible for paying the depreciation (35%), plus interest (money factor), and sales tax (depending on where you are). Just want to make sure that we're on the same page and that you don't get numbers that deter you from picking one up

 

[MikeyJS]

Yeah I think there is some confusion here...

Where did you see the .56 on the site? I didn't see it. I thought you meant that the payments you make account for 56% of MSRP

 

[sbtz]

Yeah I think there is some confusion here...

Where did you see the .56 on the site? I didn't see it. I thought you meant that the payments you make account for 56% of MSRP

It's in the source of their lease calculator site. Specifically:

'60kWh': {
'base': 66000,
'alg_residual': 0.54, // + 0.04

(add .10 or 10% for 24mos)

Then later, it specifies the adjustments for mileage (adding to the residual %):

var mileages = {
'10000':0.02,
'12000':0.01,
'15000':0.0,
};

Then a few other figures:

var constants = {
'money_factor': 0.0018,
'interest_rate': 4.32,
'federal_incentive': 7500,
'acquisition_fee': 695,

Finally, it calculates the residual here:

var residual_value = (total) * (model.alg_residual + mileage + termResidual) + constants.federal_incentive;

So in other words: Residual = 67200 * (.54 + 0 + 0) + 7500 = 43788

43788/67200= ~65%

So your monthly "rent" is 483.67 and interest is 188.98, then add tax - for me in CA it'd be 53.81 @ 8%.

 

[MikeyJS]

Man should have known to check page source

 

[Erleichda]

Thank you SO much! Here are the other models:

var models = {
'60kWh': {
'base': 66000,
'alg_residual': 0.54, // + 0.04
'deposit': 2500,
'downPayment': 5000,
'term24': true
},
'60D': {
'base': 71000,
'alg_residual': 0.54, // + 0.04
'deposit': 2500,
'downPayment': 5000,
'term24': true
},
'70kWh': {
'base': 71500,
'alg_residual': 0.50,
'deposit': 2500,
'downPayment': 5000,
'term24': true
},
'70D': {
'base': 76500,
'alg_residual': 0.50,
'deposit': 2500,
'downPayment': 5000,
'term24': true
},
'75kWh': {
'base': 74500,
'alg_residual': 0.50,
'deposit': 2500,
'downPayment': 5000,
'term24': true
},
'75D': {
'base': 79500,
'alg_residual': 0.50,
'deposit': 2500,
'downPayment': 5000,
'term24': true
},
'90D': {
'base': 89500,
'alg_residual': 0.50,
'deposit': 2500,
'downPayment': 5000,
'term24': true
},
'P90D': {
'base': 112000,
'alg_residual': 0.50,
'deposit': 2500,
'downPayment': 5000,
'term24': true
},
'P100D': {
'base': 122000,
'alg_residual': 0.50,
'deposit': 2500,
'downPayment': 5000,
'term24': true
},
'X60D': {
'base': 74000,
'alg_residual': 0.54, // + 0.04
'deposit': 2500,
'downPayment': 5000,
'term24': true
},
'X75D': {
'base': 83000,
'alg_residual': 0.50,
'deposit': 2500,
'downPayment': 5000,
'term24': true
},
'X90D': {
'base': 95500,
'alg_residual': 0.50,
'deposit': 2500,
'downPayment': 5000,
'term24': true
},
'XP90D': {
'base': 115500,
'alg_residual': 0.50,
'deposit': 2500,
'downPayment': 5000,
'term24': true
},
'XP100D': {
'base': 125500,
'alg_residual': 0.50,
'deposit': 2500,
'downPayment': 5000,
'term24': true
}
};

// Additional residual value bump by mileage
var mileages = {
'10000':0.02,
'12000':0.01,
'15000':0.0,
};

// Additional residual value bump by term
var terms = {
'24': {
'60kWh': 0.10,
'60D': 0.10,
'70kWh': 0.10,
'70D': 0.10,
'75kWh': 0.10,
'75D': 0.10,
'90D': 0.10,
'P90D': 0.10,
'P100D': 0.10,
'X60D': 0.10,
'X75D': 0.10,
'X90D': 0.10,
'XP90D': 0.10,
'XP100D': 0.10
},
'36': {

 

[hyper]

I just got lease offer from Tesla today. Buyout at end of 2 year lease was 72% of purchase price on a 60D 15K annual (fully loaded, minus cold/jump seats).

PM me if you want the screen captures they sent me 24 & 36 offers.

 

[Erleichda]

Gang, I've never leased before but want to understand correctly my assumptions because:

1. Want to sell our 2012 Model S before it further depreciates once Model 3 is available.
2. Have kids who no longer fit in jump seats, thus want to replace with MX.
3. Have the cash to buy outright. However, the depreciation curve for the MX is totally unknown.
4. Residual for the MX model I'd get is 57% at 3 years/15k miles.
5. 3 years from now will have 17 and 15 year old, may not be shuttling kids as much as they begin to drive. Model 3 will be in full swing, have a reservation in fact.

I used the view page source to run numbers also, using the quoted 4.3% interest and + 7500
Cost new is 103,900. Residual quoted at $59,450 (57%)
Upfront costs seem steep at 5000, plus 700 acquisition.

Just seems like a good time to put the risk of depreciation on the lender?

 

[goofygrin]

Take a look at the cost between buying 15k miles/yr and 10k + paying the overage. On mine, I'm going to save 1500+ paying for the overage.

But your line of thinking is why I recommend people lease vs buy electric vehicles. Think about it like an iPhone. If you could get some insurance against the next gen coming out and turning your $400 iPhone 6 into a $200 iPhone 6 when the 7 comes out, there are a lot of people that would take that.

 

[AMPd]

Can the purchase price at the end of the lease be negotiated?
The residual on my P90D is 76,508
If the car is worth less, would the bank be willing to sell for the current value at that time?