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Lease Residual and MF

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Gang, I've never leased before but want to understand correctly my assumptions because:

1. Want to sell our 2012 Model S before it further depreciates once Model 3 is available.
2. Have kids who no longer fit in jump seats, thus want to replace with MX.
3. Have the cash to buy outright. However, the depreciation curve for the MX is totally unknown.
4. Residual for the MX model I'd get is 57% at 3 years/15k miles.
5. 3 years from now will have 17 and 15 year old, may not be shuttling kids as much as they begin to drive. Model 3 will be in full swing, have a reservation in fact.

I used the view page source to run numbers also, using the quoted 4.3% interest and + 7500
Cost new is 103,900. Residual quoted at $59,450 (57%)
Upfront costs seem steep at 5000, plus 700 acquisition.

Just seems like a good time to put the risk of depreciation on the lender?

That's ultimately why I decided to lease... with the model 3 coming out, rapid advancements happening, and AP 2.0 on the horizon, there's a risk of depreciation being slightly more than I'd be comfortable with. Plus, I don't drive all that much (still getting AP for some stupid reason) and I'll be ready to step into a well-optioned model 3 in a couple of years.
 
Where did you find the 57% residual? The numbers we have seen on page source are 50/54. Did they change recently?

Gang, I've never leased before but want to understand correctly my assumptions because:

1. Want to sell our 2012 Model S before it further depreciates once Model 3 is available.
2. Have kids who no longer fit in jump seats, thus want to replace with MX.
3. Have the cash to buy outright. However, the depreciation curve for the MX is totally unknown.
4. Residual for the MX model I'd get is 57% at 3 years/15k miles.
5. 3 years from now will have 17 and 15 year old, may not be shuttling kids as much as they begin to drive. Model 3 will be in full swing, have a reservation in fact.

I used the view page source to run numbers also, using the quoted 4.3% interest and + 7500
Cost new is 103,900. Residual quoted at $59,450 (57%)
Upfront costs seem steep at 5000, plus 700 acquisition.

Just seems like a good time to put the risk of depreciation on the lender?
 
Emailed them:

"The cash price of that vehicle is $103,900, see attached for design (color pending).

The residual values on the lease are as follows:
- 10,000 miles per year: $61,528 (59%)

- 12,000 miles per year: $60,489 (58%)

- 15,000 miles per year: $59,450 (57%)"
 
Where did you find the 57% residual? The numbers we have seen on page source are 50/54. Did they change recently?

Emailed them:

"The cash price of that vehicle is $103,900, see attached for design (color pending).

The residual values on the lease are as follows:
- 10,000 miles per year: $61,528 (59%)

- 12,000 miles per year: $60,489 (58%)

- 15,000 miles per year: $59,450 (57%)"

So MikeyJS -- Erleichda's residual is lower because it's a higher priced config, which dilutes the (fixed) $7500 federal tax credit that is added to the "baseline" residual amount.
 
Lots of good info here starting around page 2: Snagged a P90D Inventory car for $700/mnth on the new 24 month lease

One thing to double check: depending on the numbers you're getting back from tesla re. quotes for a 10k vs 12k vs 15k miles leases, it's sometimes cheaper to get a 10k and pay the extra 2k (vs a 12k) at 25 cents/mile. It was for me plus you get to keep that money in your pocket for an extra 2 or 3 years.
 
Oh so the residual they quote you does not include the 7500 tax credit?

@Erleichda The 625 fee is a sunk cost. All car companies seem to add on extra junk fees when you lease. Per your 2500 deposit and 2500 down, I would recommend not putting anything down and just use the 2500 to pay the taxes / first month / registration fees (if they allow you to). It's always a bad idea to put money down on leases because if your car is totaled the day you take delivery, you lose the money and even though the MF is high on these leases, it won't save you that much.


So MikeyJS -- Erleichda's residual is lower because it's a higher priced config, which dilutes the (fixed) $7500 federal tax credit that is added to the "baseline" residual amount.
 
Oh so the residual they quote you does not include the 7500 tax credit?

@Erleichda The 625 fee is a sunk cost. All car companies seem to add on extra junk fees when you lease. Per your 2500 deposit and 2500 down, I would recommend not putting anything down and just use the 2500 to pay the taxes / first month / registration fees (if they allow you to). It's always a bad idea to put money down on leases because if your car is totaled the day you take delivery, you lose the money and even though the MF is high on these leases, it won't save you that much.

My sales guy always gave me quotes w/ residuals including the tax credit, which goes to the owner (the bank, in the case of a lease). The numbers would fluctuate depending on the config we were working on, which led me to dig for that exact formula from the lease calculator page. You make a really good point on down payments (cap reduction) on leases. Also, you get taxed on cap reduction, for some odd reason! (at least in CA -- dunno about FL or other states)
 
If your residual of 57% and you did 0 down (just paid for lease acquisition fee) then the monthly payment should be $1221 with tax. However if they are not letting you keep the 7500 tax rebate that was included in the lease, then your residual would really be 50% and monthly payment would be $1424.

Here is a link to my lease calc if you are interested: https://1drv.ms/x/s!AplrfIJHW5Thg_BXJT_FP8WelRRBeA

My sales guy always gave me quotes w/ residuals including the tax credit, which goes to the owner (the bank, in the case of a lease). The numbers would fluctuate depending on the config we were working on, which led me to dig for that exact formula from the lease calculator page. You make a really good point on down payments (cap reduction) on leases. Also, you get taxed on cap reduction, for some odd reason! (at least in CA -- dunno about FL or other states)
 
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Are the number above correct ? Lease estimate sheet that my OA sent me doesn't have residual but he said its 70 on a fully loaded 75D for 24 months. I don't think it's right, so is 62 that is in the source code.

What was your MSRP and miles?

The residual should be 60% of the MSRP (50% listed + 10% for 24mos) + $7500.

I went to the Tesla website and selected a 75D with every single option I could find (fully loaded, including upgraded trim, paint and wheels) and it's $106,750+$1,200=$107,950.

60% of that plus $7,500 is $72,270 = 66.9%. That's w/ 15k mi/yr.

(if you're expecting 62%, that's for 10k mi/yr - then you need to add the tax credit that the bank takes)
 
What was your MSRP and miles?

The residual should be 60% of the MSRP (50% listed + 10% for 24mos) + $7500.

I went to the Tesla website and selected a 75D with every single option I could find (fully loaded, including upgraded trim, paint and wheels) and it's $106,750+$1,200=$107,950.

60% of that plus $7,500 is $72,270 = 66.9%. That's w/ 15k mi/yr.

(if you're expecting 62%, that's for 10k mi/yr - then you need to add the tax credit that the bank takes)
Hi,
MRP is 99200. Sale price is 81600 ( including $1000 referral and $1200 wave of destination fee ). I can't get the math for the 10k payment that I got.


If I use 10k, why I need to add the tax credit ? I didn't get the part. I thought the only difference is residual difference for 10k , 12k and 15k miles.
 
Hi,
MRP is 99200. Sale price is 81600 ( including $1000 referral and $1200 wave of destination fee ). I can't get the math for the 10k payment that I got.


If I use 10k, why I need to add the tax credit ? I didn't get the part. I thought the only difference is residual difference for 10k , 12k and 15k miles.

By my math (and keep in mind my math is based on their lease calculator website and its source), your residual would be ~69.5% for 24mo 10k mi/yr. (99920*0.62)+7500=69450.40/99920=~0.695 or ~69.5%

Plug the rest into a lease calculator that takes into account your state's way of assessing sales tax (I think it's all up-front in VA) and the numbers should jive.

You add the federal tax credit because that's their way of boosting the residual. It goes to the owner - in the case of a lease, that's the bank, not you. They're kinda-sorta giving it back to you in the form of an increased residual.

Keep in mind that until the end of the month, their lease special has better pricing on the 60/60D models (4% higher residual than the higher models), regardless of mileage.

YMMV on all of this though - again, this is based on their lease calculator, which may or may not be the same thing they actually use. Also, your credit may affect the money factor (0.00180)

BTW, that seems to be a heckuva deal - how'd you manage such a big discount? (assuming this isn't one of those insane deals on inventory cars that were floating around)
 
By my math (and keep in mind my math is based on their lease calculator website and its source), your residual would be ~69.5% for 24mo 10k mi/yr. (99920*0.62)+7500=69450.40/99920=~0.695 or ~69.5%

Plug the rest into a lease calculator that takes into account your state's way of assessing sales tax (I think it's all up-front in VA) and the numbers should jive.

You add the federal tax credit because that's their way of boosting the residual. It goes to the owner - in the case of a lease, that's the bank, not you. They're kinda-sorta giving it back to you in the form of an increased residual.

Keep in mind that until the end of the month, their lease special has better pricing on the 60/60D models (4% higher residual than the higher models), regardless of mileage.

YMMV on all of this though - again, this is based on their lease calculator, which may or may not be the same thing they actually use. Also, your credit may affect the money factor (0.00180)

BTW, that seems to be a heckuva deal - how'd you manage such a big discount? (assuming this isn't one of those insane deals on inventory cars that were floating around)
Yes, it's inventory deal.

You are right on residual, but if I put the rest of the numbers, it won't add up.

I used the leasehackr.com calculator as well as hand calculation - OA lease estimator is off by more than 4k!
 
No, there were quite a few similarly configured cars ( showroom display ) discounted by same amount.
Few reasons i cash think of- some of them are beaten up inside. Also they have 70D badge outside.

They just added rear cup holders and USB ports and it's a big deal when selling to families.

Slight possibility that new ones have AP2 hardware