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Lease vs. Cash

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I don't buy this "lease because the technology is advancing" mantra - As ucmndd pointed out, you shouldn't expect radical changes in battery capacity or charge rate in the near future. Therefore, there's no real technological differences between EV's and ICE's. Both can have autopilot, etc.

I think it's more than just battery capacity and charge rate. Cars seem to be the platform all the major tech guys are trying to innovate on. So we're in for quite a few years of advancement on a lot of fronts -- autonomy, connectivity, creature comforts, etc. Much more so than the rate of advancement in the past. My Model S is 2013. Compared to something rolling off the factory floor today, it's quite obsolete. Compare that to the difference between a 2013 S class vs a 2015 S class and it's night and day.

Incremental improvements in battery is also a factor. It depends on how incremental it is. If both $/kWH and lb/kWH improve by even 15%, that's quite a big deal over a 2-3 year lease.
 
I always drive too many miles for leases. So I will have to purchase. But I do appreciate the leasing model, especially with Tesla that updates the cars much more frequently than a traditional auto maker.

I have the opposite problem. I don't drive enough to take advantage of even a less expensive low milage lease. Most are only as low as 10,000 miles per year. I drive 3500 to 4000 miles per year and therefore feel like I leave a lot of miles on the table and don't get credit at the end of the lease.
 
I plan to lease. First, the cap rate is lower bc the tax credit is used by the finance company, so no need to owe taxes to use the credit. Second, if anything goes wrong, accident or first year production issues, I just give the car back, no need to worry about resale value. And yes, tech will advance, why own a depreciating asset?

I bought the Crosstrek bc I don't want to deal with getting out of a lease early if the M3 comes sooner than 3 years.
 
I'm almost positive I will buy my M3. I'm a 'keep a car for a long time' kind of gal. My current vehicle is 12 years old.
-I'm a new real estate agent so I have no idea what my future mileage will be
-I want to drive the car a couple of times a year between Denver and KC. Also weekend trips to the mountains.
-I'm not an early adapter for tech. I cuss every time my iPhone makes me update. So new updates probably won't bother me too much.
-The hubs wants a new car too. I would prefer to have mine paid off before that.
-The kid is getting my old car and will be going to college soon. I will have a need for a "used" car for a while.
-I hope to get some of that tax money!
-Keeping a car for a long time is better for my wallet as well as the environment.

As long as the M3 is a dependable car, I think I'll be happy for many years to come. The only ??? is, Model Y. I have an SUV now. It's gonna be weird going back to a car.
 
I have the opposite problem. I don't drive enough to take advantage of even a less expensive low milage lease. Most are only as low as 10,000 miles per year. I drive 3500 to 4000 miles per year and therefore feel like I leave a lot of miles on the table and don't get credit at the end of the lease.

That is a perspective that I find is not mentioned much in these types of discussions, and also where I find myself.

I like to lease due to always having a warranty, lower monthly payments, and getting to scratch that itch of wanting something new every few years without having to take such an immeasurable hit financially to do that.

Yet at the same time, I drive very little on average (I put 60k miles on my Ford Focus over 10 years of driving) so I feel like I am getting the shortest end of the Lease value stick when my monthly is based on 10k a month.
 
In the next 3-5 years, the only technology on the horizon that would render a 1st Gen Model 3 "obsolete" is in the batteries and charing.

Full-Self Driving? Activated via OTA software push? And incrementally updated over time with machine learning?

Outside of Tesla, who will be doing THAT in the next 3-5 years? Hint: No one....as I still consider Lucid and Faraday "vaporware".

Tesla themselves can render G1-M3's "obsolete" by advancing battery and charging technology well beyond what will be in Production later this year.

But here's the thing.....we don't even know what will be on our Model 3's yet, spec-wise, so it's all just a guessing game trying to nail down what will be outdated in 3-5 years.

Maybe our new battery packs will reach previously unheard-of efficiency. Maybe our onboard chargers will be compatible with the rumored "> 350kW Superchargers".....we won't know until late March.
 
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In the next 3-5 years, the only technology on the horizon that would render a 1st Gen Model 3 "obsolete" is in the batteries and charing.

Full-Self Driving? Activated via OTA software push? And incrementally updated over time with machine learning?

Outside of Tesla, who will be doing THAT in the next 3-5 years? Hint: No one....as I still consider Lucid and Faraday "vaporware".

Tesla themselves can render G1-M3's "obsolete" by advancing battery and charging technology well beyond what will be in Production later this year.

But here's the thing.....we don't even know what will be on our Model 3's yet, spec-wise, so it's all just a guessing game trying to nail down what will be outdated in 3-5 years.

Maybe our new battery packs will reach previously unheard-of efficiency. Maybe our onboard chargers will be compatible with the rumored "> 350kW Superchargers".....we won't know until late March.
What will be outdated in 5 years? Everything, that or I'll want a new faster, bigger, or smaller, and more of whatever it is.