Green Light's point is what worries me. Like P said, the leases are terrible, but a bit less risk, and with all the improvements likely to be forthcoming, depreciation could be a big number. Of course, if I was going to keep the car 10 years, buying is the way to go, and the only way I have gone in the past. But with electric cars, I wonder.
I leased my S almost 4 years ago. My lease is up in December, and I'm trying to figure out what to do about it, but here are some real numbers.
I 2015, my car was about $116,000 (CDN). My lease is $1600/month, plus I put down some cash, don't recall how much, assume $7500 including first payment. Over 4 years I will have paid about $76,800 for my lease. My residual is $51,000 (CDN). If I decide to buy it out, maybe I finance that $51k over another 4 years. In total I will have paid around $130-something-thousand over 8 years to own the car, compared to the original $116k purchase price. Not a great deal.
However, if I decide to turn it in and get a new S and assume a similar lease, then after 8 years of "ownership" I will have paid around $150k, which is even more absurd considering I still won't own anything at the end of that lease.
The current closest equivalent to my 90D is a Long Range S. Here's the progress Tesla has made in the past 4 years:
- LR has about 150km more range than my S
- it costs about $10k less than my S did 4 years ago
- my S has coil suspension, new ones are air (not sure if this is a pro or a con but I read good things about the new suspension)
- my S has a solid metal roof, new ones are glass (again, not sure if this is a good thing as I like my roof)
- my S: no Autopilot. New S: standard Autopilot (equivalent to what my AP1 is/would be capable of)
- my S: 2 cameras, HW1, never going to drive itself. New S: many cameras, HW3, maybe self-driving one day? I won't pay for FSD up front but if they ever get it working would add it on in a heartbeat
- MCU1 vs MCU2 is a big difference in responsiveness, although my screen has not yellowed and the new ones seem to have an issue
- new cars Supercharge much faster
There are probably more things that I've overlooked (just remembered, I have cloth seats vs new leather-ish seats), but I think you get the idea that there have been some big changes in the last 4 years. Is the pace of change slowing, or accelerating? What would that mean to re-sale? I live in a part of the world where there is not a big market for used Teslas, so if I owned mine, how hard would it be for me to sell privately vs. just giving my car back to Tesla? Will any other manufacturer have a more reasonably-priced alternative that is as good or nearly so, in the next three to four years? These are things that have me leaning towards another lease, even though it is probably not the smartest financially.
I love my car - I have had no problems with it, it's the first car I have ever ordered customized to my preferences, and I truly don't see most of the progress as progress. I prefer my dumb cruise control that just holds the speed I tell it to (no phantom braking), I love driving my car and I'm not interested in anything less than full level 5 autonomy, I like a roof that doesn't make my head hot in the summer and cold in the winter, so I'm really having trouble thinking of turning it in but the idea of continuing to pay for a car that gets more outdated by the day is unappealing. Sure, compared to 80% of the cars out there my old S is still a wonder of technology, but that technology keeps showing up in cars at lower and lower price points, so in 4 more years is even the most basic Honda going to have features similar to or better than what my car has, and if so what's the value of my car going to be? Scorching acceleration, decent range, a comfortable ride, all things that aren't going to change, but I honestly don't know what the value of a Tesla totally out of warranty (after 8 years) will be, and I'm not sure I'm ready to find out yet.
No idea if this helps you, but it kind of helps me getting it all written out. TL;DR, leasing an S is a terrible idea financially but lower-risk while the industry remains in flux, in my opinion.