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Leasing Model 3?

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by daniel, Apr 21, 2017.

  1. daniel

    daniel Active Member

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    I am trying to sort out my conflicting desires around the Model 3. I really want AWD, after test-driving a P85D Model S, and the way it handled. I also want P, because my Roadster has spoiled me. But I don't want to have to wait for those options, because I also want the safety features of AP as soon as I can get them. I'm wondering if the way around my dilemma might be to lease a Model 3 as soon as it becomes available, and then in a couple of years, at the end of the lease, turn it in and buy a P-AWD with the latest AP. I gather that the initial offerings will be available with all the AP hardware, but maybe in two years that hardware will have improved for even better AP functioning.

    Thoughts? Ideas? Suggestions? I've never leased a car before. I've always kept cars for the long term, except for the Zap Xebra, which I sold after 4 years when I got the Tesla. But maybe Leasing would be a way to go with the 3 in order to get it as soon as possible, but then upgrade in two years without the hassle of having to put it up for sale. Or would I be better off to buy it outright, and sell it in a couple of years when I upgrade?
     
  2. roguenode

    roguenode Member

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    Current leases with Tesla are 3 years, so you'd be locked in for longer than you'd likely be waiting to get AWD and P. You could always buy and sell later, but unless you have more than one 3 reservation, your second purchase would be at the back of the line and you also may run into tax credit/rebate issues depending on your length of ownership for the first one. I'm not sure about that, but worth looking into.

    Honestly, I'd also like to get a 3 ASAP, but want AWD. My reservation was early and I'm mountain time zone, so I'm just going to wait a bit longer.
     
  3. 206er

    206er Member

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    I'm thinking about leasing for 3 years since it's a brand new car design (maybe some short term bumps ahead), will be our first ever EV, and our growing family may eventually want to upgrade to a Y. We want AWD, but live in Seattle and have never had to use an AWD car before, so I'm not sure if risking the tax credit is worth waiting it out.

    Leasing now would get us the tax credit instantly in the way of lower monthly payments instead of waiting around for the $7,500 credit come tax time, and with how quickly tech is moving these days, we won't be stuck owning a 3-year old entry level EV in 3 years when a significant number of newer EV options are on the market in 2020 or 21, depending on when we take delivery.

    But we will see, nothing is set in stone thus far with how we plan to pay for the car.

    I'm a 3/31 early morning reservation holder hoping to take delivery this year. Not being able to take delivery this year due to roll-out delays will most certainly push us closer to leasing.
     
  4. shrspeedblade

    shrspeedblade Member

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    I'm in much the same position as well. I've never leased before, but heavily leaning towards in it this case for several reasons. If I have to order late this year, I'll probably go with a lower optioned RWD model, but if I could do it in April or May of next year and still get the full tax credit I'd be sorely tempted to go for a P model assuming price isn't too crazy.
     
  5. ChadS

    ChadS Petroleum is for sissies

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    Similar position here as well. I have two reservations for the 3, so I'm thinking I'll lease the first one ASAP, and buy the second.

    Although I do hope they have 2-year leases. They don't offer them now, but they did for a while - I got one on my second Model S.
     
  6. SageBrush

    SageBrush Active Member

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    Leasing will not save you money, and if Tesla continues its current policies it will buy back your car without hassle so this choice strikes me as six of one and a 1/2 dozen of the other.
     
    • Informative x 1
  7. JeffK

    JeffK Well-Known Member

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    What hardware do you expect to improve besides computing power (which Elon said was upgradeable)?
     
  8. shrspeedblade

    shrspeedblade Member

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    When you consider that a 2012 Model S is already called a "classic" when compared to the current cars, I feel fairly comfortable in saying that we will continue to see rapid changes/advancements over at least the next decade. Especially as other manufacturers jump into the EV pool in earnest and up the ante in competition and innovation.

    By that measure, my 2003 Miata is an "antique"! ;)
     
  9. JeffK

    JeffK Well-Known Member

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    This is why it's always good to by the car for what it is today and not think of it like a computer that you have to update every two years... Once we start thinking of cars that way then we're all financially doomed. :D
     
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  10. Garlan Garner

    Garlan Garner Well-Known Member

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    I certainly wouldn't add the $3000+/- full autonomy option to the lease ( if its available ). Full autonomy might get approved in the state that you reside in until after 3 years from now. Adding full AP isn't just something Tesla can turn on....even if it works flawlessly. Local legislation would have to agree on a state by state basis. I hate to suggest that Tesla should lose money, however I'm trying to look out for consumers as well.

    What a waste of money that would be.
     
    • Like x 1
  11. daniel

    daniel Active Member

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    I have no idea. Just the general thought that they might come up with a hardware innovation, or a camera with better resolution, or laser with better who-knows-what, or a computer chip that's better at the calculations.

    What I wonder about (and I have no idea if this is a reasonable thought or not) is whether the partial AP available now might work better with the full hardware suite. My only reason for trading down from my Roadster to a sedan is to get the added safety. And I will pay whatever they want to charge for whatever options deliver the most safety. (In an EV, that is. The Zap Xebra was the most unsafe car I've ever owned, and I only got rid of it when I could get a better EV.) The problem is, I don't always know which options will deliver a safety advantage.

    I bought my 1989 Honda Civic to get shoulder-strap seat belts, and I moved up to the Prius to get anti-lock brakes and vehicle stability control. I see any level of AP as providing an additional measure of safety (when used correctly, not like the idiots who think the car can drive itself). If more cameras, etc., will make the partial AP work better, I'll happily pay the $3,000. But I don't know if it will. Hopefully, Tesla will clarify, or someone can point me to where they have done so already.
     
  12. melindav

    melindav ☰ reserved

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    I did a comparison of the financial difference of buying vs leasing a while back on the M3OC forum. in short, you always come out ahead financially buying and selling over leasing (presuming it's not a business expense that could be totally written off).

    based on the least expensive S at the time ($68,000) comparing buying vs a 36 month 15k mile lease. For simplicity did not including sales tax (I will always think like a sales-tax-free Oregonian) or the $7500 Federal credit (that is figured in to the current lease numbers though) and the purchase still came out ahead.
    The leased car will average to $1,018/month over the 36 months of use (including the downpayment & monthly payments)
    The purchased car on a 6 year loan sold at a 3 year depreciated rate ($60,520) will average to $308/month of use (including downpayment, monthly payments and the recouped sale value at 36 months in).

    or looking at two back-to-back leases vs a full 6 year loan:
    leased cars still average $1,018/month for a total of $73,328
    Purchased car on 6 year loan at the 6 year point $71,614 and you still own an asset worth a depreciated value of $44,200 or in other words you paid $27,414 for the use of the purchased car (depreciation and interest) for the 6 years, $380.75/month.

    that all again is without figuring in the $7500 credit that IS figured into the lease prices currently. Once the credit is done, the lease prices should go up...

    ETA: so really, best all around is to purchase and sell at the 3 year point for the $308/month all in cost...
     
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  13. Randy Spencer

    Randy Spencer Member

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    It would be great to have the dealer talk like that, I got a new car and had cash to buy it, but when the dealer mentioned leasing it for two years, I thought, hey we can write it off and then buy it when the lease is up. Need a good 'lease and buy back' calculator as we still have much of the original cost left to pay now that we are off lease. Perhaps if I had bought ANOTHER that was coming off lease they wouldn't have charged me as much as taking the one I had been driving this whole time. The most disappointing part was the write-off by our business accountant was not very substantial, need a better accountant if we try leasing again.

    -Randy
     
  14. daniel

    daniel Active Member

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    Wow, that's an enormous difference! How did you get the 3-year depreciated rate? Was that KBB? It's hard to believe that a $68K Model S would still be worth $60,520 after three years. Obviously, with depreciation so low buying is preferable. I was thinking that leasing would avoid the hassle of re-selling, but I never imagined the difference would be so much.
     
  15. melindav

    melindav ☰ reserved

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    I used the WA state depreciation schedule being used to calculate value for the new Puget Sound RTA excise tax. It's not Tesla specific, but antidotal reports show Teslas hold their value better than other similarly priced vehicles...
     
  16. McRat

    McRat Active Member

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    Self steering is not a safety feature. Automatic Emergency Braking is. Self steering is so you can take your eyes off the road only. Humans can swerve around danger, self - steering will not at the this point. A bus blows a red light. Chose hitting a bus broadside, hitting a light pole to the right, or driving on the wrong side of the road onto the sidewalk to left and stopping. Current AP will slam on the brakes and hit the bus at best. A human will try to avoid dying.

    EDIT - I should add, that if you do sleep at the wheel, or take your eyes of road a lot, then yes, AP is a safety device for YOU. However, a human driver who is actually driving is safer than AP.
     
  17. JeffK

    JeffK Well-Known Member

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    I've seen people on freeways veer out of their lanes while not trying to change lanes and they end of side swiping one another. lane keep assist might be somewhere in a middle ground.
     
  18. McRat

    McRat Active Member

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    I see this also. Much of the time I see the driver staring at their groin when it happens. I'm going to guess texting.
     
    • Funny x 1
  19. daniel

    daniel Active Member

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    Actually, a human driver is unlikely to be able to process the surroundings and make any rational choice of action. He will slam on the brakes and possibly swerve without being aware of what he's swerving into.

    I don't know what AP does at this stage, but hitting the brakes sooner (it will react much sooner than a human) and moving to avoid a car that's veering in from the side are features that will make any driver safer, with the possible exception of a professional race-car driver on full alert.

    My (possibly flawed) understanding is that at this point, AP is not intended to allow you to take your eyes off the road or your hands off the wheel. It's intended to react faster than you could when an emergency stop is needed, when drifting out of your lane, or when a nearby car comes too close. And adaptive cruise control will react faster than a distracted driver will when the car ahead slows down. And we all get distracted from time to time. It will also alert you and take action if you start to change lanes when there's a car in your blind spot.
     
  20. slipnslider

    slipnslider Member

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    Unfortunately that appears to be the approach that telsa is taking. Putting us on the "buy new hardware, update software until hardware can't handle it anymore, then trash the hardware and buy new hardware" treadmill that cell phone and laptop makers have tricked us into.
    It made a trillion dollars for apple, why wouldn't tesla follow suit?
     

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