Leasing Model 3?

[zer0cool]

The Model S does have good resale value, compared to a Merc S class or BMW 7 series. Those are the most depreciating cars however. Compared to more regular cars Model S depreciates very heavily.

Tesla has among the worst lease deals in the industry. A new moderately equipped 75 leases for over 1000/m with 7k down, not counting taxes and fees. That was the case when I bought my 70D in 2015 as well, a moderately equipped 70D was over 1000/m. For the same payment, one could have leased a M5 with close to 110k MSRP. A BMW 550i with MSRP in the 70's leased in the 700's to low 800's with basically nothing down. Just looked today, a new MB E class around 60k lease just around 600 bucks per month.

By comparison, Tesla lease is TERRIBLE. The same will be the case with Model 3 I think. It is almost certainly better to buy a Model 3 then sell it vs. leasing.

I think Tesla residuals/MFs are too low/high compared to BMW/MB, etc.

 

[SageBrush]

By comparison, Tesla lease is TERRIBLE. The same will be the case with Model 3 I think. It is almost certainly better to buy a Model 3 then sell it vs. leasing.

You have to state how the car will be sold. Daniel is not interested in the hassle of a private sale so the relevant comparison is Tesla lease vs Return to Tesla.

 

[daniel]

Unfortunately that appears to be the approach that telsa is taking. Putting us on the "buy new hardware, update software until hardware can't handle it anymore, then trash the hardware and buy new hardware" treadmill that cell phone and laptop makers have tricked us into.
It made a trillion dollars for apple, why wouldn't tesla follow suit?

I think this is being unfair to Tesla. You've taken a big advantage of Tesla's, the ability to update software, and turned it into a liability ("You must trash the car when the software can no longer be updated.") Other cars are stuck with their original software forever. And although some folks buy a new phone every year (just as some people buy a new car every year) there's no need to do so. An older phone may not run newer apps, but it still makes phone calls and it still runs its original apps. I kept my desktop computer for 5 or 6 years after it would no longer accept OS upgrades.

The real issue here is that some of us want a Model 3 as soon as we can get our grubby hands on it, but we also want options that have been announced but which won't be available for another 6 to 9 months or longer.

You have to state how the car will be sold. Daniel is not interested in the hassle of a private sale so the relevant comparison is Tesla lease vs Return to Tesla.

Considering what I'm learning in this thread and others here on the forum, I'm going to have to reconsider my views on selling my car privately. It already appears that I'd lose a considerably amount of money trading in my Roadster, vs. a private sale, and now it looks as though I'd lose a lot of money leasing my Model 3 vs. buying it and then selling later.

Definitely no sale to any personal friends, though. I don't want to go through that again.

 

[Bladerskb]

I certainly wouldn't add the $3000+/- full autonomy option to the lease ( if its available ). Full autonomy might get approved in the state that you reside in until after 3 years from now. Adding full AP isn't just something Tesla can turn on....even if it works flawlessly. Local legislation would have to agree on a state by state basis. I hate to suggest that Tesla should lose money, however I'm trying to look out for consumers as well.

What a waste of money that would be.

That is another one of tesla excuses. You can simply field FSD features as driver assistance which they already plan to do.
They throw that regulatory approval crap to make it seem they have a finished FSD system and only being stopped by the law.

Tesla isn't the only one adding more features as driver assistance, Mercedes is doing the same.
Secondly, Nissan and Audi are releasing L3 cars in 2018. So again tesla has no excuse, but they keep playing the regulatory angle, another myth they shove down their fans throats.

 

[JeffK]

to make it seem they have a finished FSD system

They've never even hinted at this. They don't even expect a cross country demo until the very end of 2017.

 

[SageBrush]

Definitely no sale to any personal friends, though. I don't want to go through that again.

Amen

 

[Bladerskb]

They've never even hinted at this. They don't even expect a cross country demo until the very end of 2017.

cross country isn't fsd

 

[CmdrThor]

based on the least expensive S at the time ($68,000) comparing buying vs a 36 month 15k mile lease. For simplicity did not including sales tax (I will always think like a sales-tax-free Oregonian) or the $7500 Federal credit (that is figured in to the current lease numbers though) and the purchase still came out ahead.
The leased car will average to $1,018/month over the 36 months of use (including the downpayment & monthly payments)
The purchased car on a 6 year loan sold at a 3 year depreciated rate ($60,520) will average to $308/month of use (including downpayment, monthly payments and the recouped sale value at 36 months in).

A three year old 2014 Model S 60 is currently worth around $40-45k. Your $60k 3 year depreciated rate is ridiculous.

 

[daniel]

A three year old 2014 Model S 60 is currently worth around $40-45k. Your $60k 3 year depreciated rate is ridiculous.

That would make it worth about 65% of its new MSRP. That seems more reasonable, and still not bad at all. My understanding is that cars lose a lot of value as soon as you drive them off the lot (or take delivery). Unless, of course, a car is in very high demand and there's a long waiting list.

Which brings me to another question: What do folks speculate as the length of time it will take Tesla to build enough cars for all the people on the waiting list? Or, to put it another way, when will the wait time for a Model 3 come down to a month or two? Because, with only the one reservation, I won't be able to trade up until then, unless they allow owners to jump the line. Or will the priority for employees and owners continue so that an owner can get one ahead of people who've been waiting for months or a year?

 

[JeffK]

What do folks speculate as the length of time it will take Tesla to build enough cars for all the people on the waiting list?

If the ramp up goes as well as expected then it's likely that all pre-orders will be filled by the end Q3 2018 possibly sooner. It really matters how the end 2017 goes.
If there are unforeseen delays up front then we might be looking at Q4 2018.

 

[daniel]

That's very hopeful. It would mean I could drive my early Model 3 for a year and then trade up to a P-AWD if I still want it.

 

[melindav]

That's very hopeful. It would mean I could drive my early Model 3 for a year and then trade up to a P-AWD if I still want it.

P is expected March 2018 (Elon-time not withstanding) per his tweet last month saying it was due a year from now... so why not just order what you want from the beginning and wait the extra month or four?

 

[JeffK]

P is expected March 2018 (Elon-time not withstanding) per his tweet last month saying it was due a year from now... so why not just order what you want from the beginning and wait the extra month or four?

That's exactly what I'm doing. I'm going to order the Performance model right away and assuming Tesla has common sense enough to delay the 200,000th US delivery until Q1 2018, meaning even if I order the P assuming no major delays, I should still be able to get the full tax credit. In addition, I fully expect most manufacturing issues to be worked out by then.

Contrary to the tone Elon has been using to "anti-sell" the Model 3, I still think it's going to be an amazing car, exceeding my expectations.

 

[daniel]

P is expected March 2018 (Elon-time not withstanding) per his tweet last month saying it was due a year from now... so why not just order what you want from the beginning and wait the extra month or four?

Because with a fairly early reservation, on the west coast, as a current owner, it could be a six to eight month delay. I could be driving a safer car than now (the Roadster is a great car and a fun car, but I anticipate that the M3 will be a lot safer) during those six to eight months. Then, being in that safer car, I could wait a few more months for bugs and glitches to get ironed out, before I buy the car I'd expect to keep until FSD is finally available. I'm optimistic about FSD, but I think it will be five to ten years before it's approved for general use. And I think it will be closer to ten than five.

As much as I love the Roadster, and as much fun as it is, and as spoiled as I am by the torque, I bought it only because it was the only freeway-capable EV I could get at the time. I was not after a sports car. I might even find after driving a RWD Model 3 that I'm perfectly happy with it and I don't need to upgrade until FSD is finally available, in five or ten years.

 

[SageBrush]

I was not after a sports car.

Do I mis-remember that you went through a misadventure trying to retrofit a sports car into an EV ?

[/kidding]

 

[daniel]

Do I mis-remember that you went through a misadventure trying to retrofit a sports car into an EV ?

[/kidding]

You do not misremember. However, it was not specifically a sports car I was after. I wanted a freeway-capable EV. If the project had succeeded, I'd have had a freeway-capable EV with around 80 miles of range three years before the Tesla Roadster first went on sale. I found a guy with a good reputation for doing such conversions, who specialized in a certain brand of sports car. If I'd found someone who specialized in converting Honda Civics, I'd have gotten that. As it turned out, the guy sent me the car eleven months late, with parts missing, with parts hanging loose, loose axle and transmission bolts, live battery connections a hair's breadth from grounded frame, main electrical cable hanging loose under the car, A/C condenser hanging loose by one plastic zip-tie and rubbing on one front wheel, a controller half the capacity of the one promised, and a damaged battery pack. A local guy tried to fix it, but it was a lost cause. I was actually lucky that the A/C condenser was falling off because the noise of it rubbing on the wheel was what alerted me and got me to take it in to a shop, where they discovered the loose bolts which could have led to a fatal accident. Further investigation revealed all the other problems. Needless to say, I got taken in by that guy big time. I posted all about it on a DIY EV chat board as well as on the board where you and I hung out at the time.

The experience turned me into a bit of a misanthrope. It is depressing that there are people who are intelligent enough to make an honest living but who choose to make a dishonest living instead. But that's the way of the world.

 

[SageBrush]

The experience turned me into a bit of a misanthrope. It is depressing that there are people who are intelligent enough to make an honest living but who choose to make a dishonest living instead. But that's the way of the world.

I apologize Daniel, I had no intention of opening old wounds.

I just meant you have an inner sports car fiend trying to get out

 

[MS16]

When calculating the lease vs buy options, be aware that Tesla charges a fee at the end of the lease if you return the car.

 

[daniel]

I apologize Daniel, I had no intention of opening old wounds.

I just meant you have an inner sports car fiend trying to get out

That's okay. It was a reasonable question. And you may be right. But, you know, I really loved that little Zap Xebra. And you couldn't get further from a sports car than that.

When calculating the lease vs buy options, be aware that Tesla charges a fee at the end of the lease if you return the car.

I didn't know that. So, you pay a fee to return the car, or you pay to buy the car. That doesn't seem quite right. Anyway, I guess all the above posts have convinced me that leasing is not the way to go, for me.

 

[shrspeedblade]

My conclusion after reading all the info. I can, in this thread and other places, is to be skeptical of just about everything being said and wait until Tesla releases the numbers so I can evaluate them without bias.