Let’s Analyze Tesla’s Recent Model S, X 75D Discontinuation

[TMC Staff]

Elon Musk broke the news last night that Tesla was dropping the 75 kWh Model S/X Since the remaining 100 kWh options are currently $15k-18k more than the 75D’s, that would greatly decrease an already small niche of buyers that can afford the Model S and Model X. This is an atypical move for Tesla...
[WPURI="https://teslamotorsclub.com/blog/2019/01/11/tesla-model-s-x-discontinuation-analysis/"]READ FULL ARTICLE[/WPURI]

 

[duanra]

Because of the model 3, they maybe stopped to sell those models anyway ?
Model 3 is about the same price with a better range...just guessing.

 

[Fellsteruk]

I’m just glad I didn’t wait to order my MX, couldn’t afford a 100pack and wouldn’t be happy to settle for a M3

 

[jlund]

Tesla aren’t that different to other companies in terms of promotions. Classic for “buy before it’s too late” and then 1 week after “here’s a new deal that is arguably more interesting” so they don’t kill sales going forward.

In other words, I’m predicting a new “mid range” option (80kw) and long range option (same 100kw) days after 75d gets discontinued. Mid range would be marginally more expensive than 75d. Might not even disclose battery size anymore to line up with model 3 trim framework.

If they don’t introduce anything in its place, I predict they will make a more dramatic change (giga battery cells, more range, interior refresh) alongside or just after Model Y reveal next month.

 

[gilscales]

I wonder if it has anything to do with the upcoming redesign and switching to 2170's maybe their contract with Panasonic for the 18650 cells is closer than we think to it's expiration?

 

[jlund]

Worth noting: Poll - why dropping the 75 S/X?

 

[XHabjab]

It seems that they are simplifying options as a precursor to some new unannounced choices. All current choices are dual motor, 100kWh battery. My guess is a new 125 or 130kWh battery size, perhaps based on 2170 cells.

Not sure about the future of the single motor option.

I would expect to see some price changes on all choices along with whatever comes next.

 

[Kant.Ing]

I am for 2170 and Supercharger V3. Maybe the S/X100 is good enough for them to digest 18650 cells, and I am predicting a new Long Range S or X with 130kWh or even 150kWh pack on 2170--if current P3D 75kWh pack can supercharge at 120kW, the new packs need to charge at V3 rate or 250kW which means at least doubling the cell count. Chassis redesign for S or X may not be done yet, and probably along with S refresh first, then X refresh. And when the time comes, 100 will be the new 75 price-wise. Right now let them focus on 3 and Y

 

[jtdiddy]

I’m just glad I didn’t wait to order my MX, couldn’t afford a 100pack and wouldn’t be happy to settle for a M3

This exactly for me as well. The 75D was the perfect range for me at the price point. Probably wouldnt have pulled the trigger if I was forced to only get the 90D or 100D versions.

 

[jboy210]

The cost of creating battery packs is dropping rapidly.

Elon says that in the next year or so Tesla will be able to created batteries for $100/KW. When the cost reaches that point, the cost difference between a 100KW and 75KW will be $2,500 (10,000-7,500).

How many buyers would select for the 75KW over the 100KW battery to save $2,500?

 

[Fellsteruk]

The cost of creating battery packs is dropping rapidly.

Elon says that in the next year or so Tesla will be able to created batteries for $100/KW. When the cost reaches that point, the cost difference between a 100KW and 75KW will be $2,500 (10,000-7,500).

How many buyers would select for the 75KW over the 100KW battery to save $2,500?

Agree but at that point we won’t be looking at a 75 or 100 as no one in the right mind would go small.

Clearly the low range version isn’t gone forever and no doubt this is just the start of us getting a long range and mid range x / s

I also doubt “they may not give a shiz” that they would significantly devalue all the existing 75 and 90’s out in the wild so the pricing of the new packs have gotta reflect the extra capacity to some degree.

 

[Knight3000]

I don't think that is the case at all. I believe the move is to push more buyers to the MODEL 3.

When you buy the current available model 3 you are forced to purchase the Long Range version. (Now they released the mid-range but only rear wheel drive). After options your reaching the 75K range (Canada). This is not that far from a base 75D. For a little money and a slightly higher monthly payment you go with the model S obviously.

I suspect Tesla has greater profit margins on the Model 3 - naturally its wants to sell more Model 3s.

 

[M3BlueGeorgia]

I'm betting we'll soon see a 80 - 85 option for S and X with the new 2170 battery design, and Tesla will up the high capacity version, perhaps 105 - 115.

Otherwise they will leave an awful gap in their lineup between the Model 3 and Model S, and also between the Model Y and the Model X, a gap that Jaguar and Audi will try to take advantage of.

 

[SpiceWare]

For a little money and a slightly higher monthly payment you go with the model S obviously.

Having taken a number of road trips in my 3, as well as in a loaner S100D, I disagree.

...Tesla gave me a loaner S 100D (2018 model with a couple thousand miles on it)...

Feedback from my folks & nephew on the 3 vs S:

1. The 3 was significantly easier to get in/out of (dad has trouble bending his limbs due to arthritis) for both the front and back seats.
2. My 3's gen 2 seats were more comfortable (have no idea on how gen 1 would compare).
3. The 3 felt roomier with 4 people in the car (we never tried with 5).
4. My nephew had to hunched over (or lean into the middle seat*) in the back of the S, was upright in the back of my 3.

I suspect #3 was most likely due to cabin height rather than width.

* this caused minor issues due to "unbuckled seat belt" warnings popping up over S's close-up direction map (in the instrument cluster) at inopportune times. Solved by buckling the middle seat belt.

 

[Tic-tac-toe]

I don't think that is the case at all. I believe the move is to push more buyers to the MODEL 3.

When you buy the current available model 3 you are forced to purchase the Long Range version. (Now they released the mid-range but only rear wheel drive). After options your reaching the 75K range (Canada). This is not that far from a base 75D. For a little money and a slightly higher monthly payment you go with the model S obviously.

I suspect Tesla has greater profit margins on the Model 3 - naturally its wants to sell more Model 3s.

Agree. Tesla is trying to segment their market by price similar other car makers. You never hear Mercedes saying that sales of their C/E class cars are hurting the sales of their S class cars which basically costs double. Getting rid of the 75D makes perfect sense since many of the buyers will get the 3 simply based on price. The 3 is the overall better value around that price point.

 

[Uncle Paul]

Believe they will go with the new, larger cell battery currently used in the Model 3 all across the board. Will enable the new V3 Supercharger to charge twice as fast, simplify using the same battery cells in all the packs of every model, and allow extend range for S and X.

Elon mentioned they are close to releasing a far less expensive battery pack that will make the Standard range equipped Model 3 profitable, even at $35,000. Imagine that they will expand this new, low cost manufacturing across all the models.

 

[jbducote]

A few things-
I’ll be disappointed if the 75D being discontinued was to “force” us to just buy the M3. While similar in price- the MS is still larger w more space than the M3- regardless of their similar specs. I just picked up my new MS 75D on 12/26/18- to take advantage of full tax credit. We already have the MX 100D as family car and “road trips-“ so paying the extra 20K for my commuter car wasn’t worth the extra $$.
My guess is 1 of 2 reasons- 1st- tesla is moving to LR/SR models where upcoming battery improvements aren’t designated- or- 2nd- we’re going to see a larger battery then the 100D (i.e., 120D, etc.)- with the 100D being reduced in price.
Just my thoughts.

 

[Falcon_Heavy]

75D S/X are still available on Tesla.com.

 

[bobfranklins]

From everything I've heard and thought of, the best theories are as follows.

-this, that because only larger batteries can significantly decrease their charge time with V3 versus V2 (with V2, a 75 kWh pack would always be within 20 minutes charge time of empty or full, so it could only charge at V3 speed for a single-digit number of minutes and only between that and V2 speed for 20 minutes,) (Thank you TMC,)

-that the Model Y Performance would have superior technology and acceleration to the Model X, even more so than the M3P did than the S 75D due to engineering progress, making similar prices make much less sense than they did while the M3P and S 75D coexisted,

-and to simplify product naming as Elon Musk tweeted. This would involve the P100D and 100D models being renamed Model X/S Performance and Model X/S Long Range at the Model Y reveal (soon), probably with a simultaneous unveil of an increase from 100 kWh to an unmentioned number of kWh with a longer range, and without a price increase. I think that they would also promise a Standard Range version of the S, X, and Y, with dates for the availability of the S and X, and would make the fabled Standard Range Model 3 available immediately at that point. Increasing the range of the Model S and X would probably involve the switch to Model 3 pack architecture -- 2170 cells with better cooling, etc.

 

[SpiceWare]

75D S/X are still available on Tesla.com.

Was gone when I checked around 2:30 (12:30pm California time). The 100D and P100D are still listed, so guess they aren't quite ready to move away from battery sizes.