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List of Elon Musk Autopilot Predictions

Discussion in 'Model S' started by Bladerskb, May 8, 2017.

  1. Bladerskb

    Bladerskb Like how many times do i have to be right?

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    June 2014:
    "I am confident that in less than a year you will be able to go from highway on ramp to highway exists without touching any controls." -

    Tesla’s 2014 Shareholder meeting [video]

    December 2015: "We're going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years." -

    Elon Musk Says Tesla Vehicles Will Drive Themselves in Two Years

    January 2016: "In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and the car is in NY" -

    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/686279251293777920

    June 2016: ""I really consider autonomous driving a solved problem," he said. "I think we are probably less than two years away." -

    Two years until self-driving cars are on the road – is Elon Musk right?


    March 2017: "I think that is about two years" -

    Transcript of "The future we're building -- and boring"

     
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  2. kort677

    kort677 Active Member

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    watch out, someone will say that you've misquoted him and taken his statements out of context
     
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  3. jelloslug

    jelloslug Active Member

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    It seems that you are not familiar with Tesla Time™
     
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  4. ohmman

    ohmman Maximum Plaid Member

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    List of @Bladerskb's positive posts on TMC:

    <end message>
     
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  5. kort677

    kort677 Active Member

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    can you dispute the claims in THIS POST? or are you just attempting a blanket smear?
     
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  6. ohmman

    ohmman Maximum Plaid Member

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    I clearly disagree with the way that Elon oversells just about everything. You are here on TMC enough to know that I have criticized Tesla strongly on a number of things, including but not limited to factory/delivery QA and transparency. But I can still find positive things to say about what's been done. I can see a positive aspect to a guy who has possibly overpromised because he's blindly optimistic. Click the numeral under my "Messages:" number on the left. Read back to my X delivery, my input on the Ludicrous counter issues and beyond.

    That said, a balanced viewpoint includes giving proper credit where credit is due. If someone can't do that, then yes - I think there's a problem with the well. I'm certainly not trying to poison it. But if it's poisoned, I want to ensure the village doesn't drink from it.
     
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  7. tpham07

    tpham07 Member

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    His locale is in Michigan. one can say a smear campaign by the Detroit 3 is underway.
     
  8. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    Elon is an optimist. He sets near impossible goals. He is the first to admit that his timeframes can be unrealistic (I have heard him admit it, and in my presence, and I have read him quoted as admitting it). The thing is, eventually he accomplishes his goals, just not always by the date he targets.

    @Bladerskb If you have a problem with that, I really don't care.
     
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  9. JHWJR

    JHWJR Member

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    The first statement appears to be clearly overly optimistic. But the other statement could be entirely or essentially correct. And remember, since then, Mobileye took their toys and went home. Tesla does not appear to have anticipated that and yet has recovered nicely.

    It's funny. People beg and plead and claw and scratch for any prediction or prognostication they can get out of Musk, and he often acquiesces and tells folks what he is seeing and planning. Then, when it doesn't come true fast enough, or when he predicts it might, they proclaim to the world that Musk is nothing but a liar and snake oil salesman. Folks: these are predictions. Educated predictions, sure. Benefitted by inside information, sure. But they are still guesses. They depend on a lot of things coming together. An awful lot of things. And things like the split with Mobileye not happening.

    What have you critics done to change the world?
     
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  10. xborg

    xborg Member

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    "We don't discount"


    Oh sorry, this thread was about autopilot predictions.



    Here are some AP1 promises:

    "Camera is able to read stop signs.. and traffic lights"

    http://youtu.be/FZ6lZJWL_Xk?t=7m25s



    "Ultrasonics will detect if you have a car in your blind spot.... ... they can detect soft objects"

    http://youtu.be/FZ6lZJWL_Xk?t=8m6s



    "You'll be able to summon the car in private property, and it'll come wherever you are. It'll use ultrasonics and make it's way to you. If you've calendar, it'll meet you there.

    http://youtu.be/FZ6lZJWL_Xk?t=9m55s



    "Autopilot instrument will detect and show you car's on the side and behind"

    http://youtu.be/FZ6lZJWL_Xk?t=12m20s
     
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  11. MarkS22

    MarkS22 Member

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    Clearly, there's more cynicism than average from that account, but I don't think it's productive to jump to "industry shill." They could easily have typed "California" under "location."

    There are plenty of personal reasons someone wants to see Tesla fail.

    The fact is, this is a product of Tesla's success. It comes with the territory of disrupting industries and brands with intense loyalty. With more success comes more scrutiny. More people are seeing their brands--which are essentially shared personal values--being surpassed. Many here would have similar reactions should a company start overtaking Tesla in the same metrics.

    But we're the early adopters (many here much earlier than me) and collectively we should expect more of this. Look how people behave with iOS vs Android, Mac vs PC, Xbox vs PS. Ultimately, behind the perceived negativity, there's valuable insight to be gained. These are the hurdles Tesla will have to overcome to complete its "master plan."

    As early adopters, many of us don't mind "puffery" or bold predictions, but many people do. Personally, I'd focus on the fact that, yes, timelines are often overconfident... but ultimately they do deliver. And when they do deliver, it often surpasses the original expectations.
     
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  12. calisnow

    calisnow Active Member

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    He wasn't disputing the claims, nor was he smearing @Bladerskb. What he *is* doing is writing an implied critique of bladerskb's attitude on the forums. There are a number of anti Elon forum members but blader goes beyond that - he constantly frames his dialogues in a "me vs you" combative tone - more than any other current poster on this forum. He has some knowledge and insight. The content is welcome but he turns off people with the "I am right. You are wrong. You are not only wrong but ignorant. I am frustrated with you and your ignorance" act. You do realize this, right? On the other hand looking at your lifetime forum stats you give TWICE as many dislikes as likes. You're a sour, bitter person also. Why? I don't know - but your psychological need to publicly disagree with people in a sour way (never even with humor) is pretty odd also.

    You are visibly annoyed by someone who makes a funny, pointed critique of the most combative forum member here. Try smiling more - works for the rest of us.
     
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  13. gowthamn

    gowthamn Science

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    Elon over sells and hypes a lot. We cannot take his word at face value.

    He keeps saying "in 2 years" for more than 2 years. LOL.
     
  14. kavyboy

    kavyboy Member

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    My own 80/20 rule: The first 80% is easy. The second 80% is really, really hard. Or, obligatory xkcd. Those of us in the tech trenches have grounded expectations.
     
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  15. MarcusMaximus

    MarcusMaximus Member

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    I'm confused... this one is true. I can't say 100% for sure about the "soft objects" bit because I've never tried it, but the ultrasonics absolutely show when there's a car in your blind spot.
     
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  16. Sir Guacamolaf

    Sir Guacamolaf The good kind of fat

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  17. oktane

    oktane Active Member

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    Yes but only after you've already passed the object. There is too much lag for the blind-spot feature to be useful, unless somehow you drive with the car in your blind-spot for several seconds like a grandma. This feature is only useful if it works within 0.5 sec of a car entering the blind-spot.
     
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  18. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

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    Well, a running list of Elon's statements on autopilot would be a useful resource to have. Unfortunately this thread derailed after two posts.
     
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  19. JenniferQ

    JenniferQ Supporting Member

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    I agree, and love my "AP spaceship," as well. I am worried that Elon can likely land and reuse rockets better than he can deliver 500k cars. Strange as it seems, one is a lot harder. I am optimistic and hope he continues to amaze. I am worried about Amber Heard distracting him....so sold my stock. But only after I got back what I lost in Solar City!
     
  20. stopcrazypp

    stopcrazypp Well-Known Member

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    #20 stopcrazypp, May 8, 2017
    Last edited: May 9, 2017
    Lol. Judge for yourself.

    December 2015:
    "We’re going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years." That doesn't mean city streets will be overflowing with driverless Tesla vehicles by 2018 (coincidentally, the company's Model 3 should be on roads by then). Musk expects regulators will lag behind the technology. He predicts it will take an additional year for regulators to determine that it's safe and to go through an approval process. In some jurisdictions, it may take five years or more, he says.
    Musk adds an important caveat—one that raises the standard of what it means to achieve full autonomy. "When I say level 4, I mean level 4 autonomy with the probability of an accident is less than that of person," he says.
    Elon Musk Says Tesla Vehicles Will Drive Themselves in Two Years

    For the June 2016 event, the media seems to have multiple different quotes for the same statement. When I have the time I'm going to have to manually go through the video and get the direct quote.
    Full video: SpaceX and Tesla CEO Elon Musk at Code 2016

    June 2016: "I consider autonomous driving to be a basically solved problem," he said. "We're less than two years away from complete autonomy. Regulators however will take at least another year; they'll want to see billions of miles of data."
    Elon Musk Just Made These 5 Bold Claims About the Future

    June 2016: "I think we are less than two years away from complete autonomy – safer than humans – regulations should take at least another year."
    Elon Musk did everything but confirm that Tesla Model 3 will be fully autonomous [Video]

    March 2017:
    16:49
    CA: So leaving aside regulation for a second, in terms of the technology alone, the time when someone will be able to buy one of your cars and literally just take the hands off the wheel and go to sleep and wake up and find that they've arrived, how far away is that, to do that safely?
    17:06
    EM: I think that's about two years. So the real trick of it is not how do you make it work say 99.9 percent of the time, because, like, if a car crashes one in a thousand times, then you're probably still not going to be comfortable falling asleep. You shouldn't be, certainly.
    17:31
    It's never going to be perfect. No system is going to be perfect, but if you say it's perhaps — the car is unlikely to crash in a hundred lifetimes, or a thousand lifetimes, then people are like, OK, wow, if I were to live a thousand lives, I would still most likely never experience a crash, then that's probably OK.
    17:53
    CA: To sleep. I guess the big concern of yours is that people may actually get seduced too early to think that this is safe, and that you'll have some horrible incident happen that puts things back.
    18:04
    EM: Well, I think that the autonomy system is likely to at least mitigate the crash, except in rare circumstances. The thing to appreciate about vehicle safety is this is probabilistic. I mean, there's some chance that any time a human driver gets in a car, that they will have an accident that is their fault. It's never zero. So really the key threshold for autonomy is how much better does autonomy need to be than a person before you can rely on it?
    Transcript of "The future we're building -- and boring"

    The criteria seems to have shifted in time. Back initially, Elon was talking about level 4 and simply probability of accident better than a human (from other thread this is a crash in ~350k miles or ~2-3 crashes per lifetime).

    More recently there is talk about level 5 (I remember this mentioned in the FSD event) and talk about crashes in multiple lifetimes.
     
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