AnxietyRanger
Well-Known Member
It seems that you are not familiar with Tesla Time™
There is a reason why some now refer to him as Eon Musk.
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It seems that you are not familiar with Tesla Time™
there are plenty of those who post comments about the many shortcomings of the product tesla puts out around here to bolster their positions in the stock but sometimes the facts are the facts and most of us know that Elon is sometimes guilty of expressing "irrational exuberance" at times.Seems like some hired guns here to go after Tesla.
The criteria seems to have shifted in time. Back initially, Elon was talking about level 4 and simply probability of accident better than a human (from other thread this is a crash in ~350k miles or ~2-3 crashes per lifetime).
More recently there is talk about level 5 (I remember this mentioned in the FSD event) and talk about crashes in multiple lifetimes.
I don't think the last bit is as relevant overall to the other points, as it's just level 2, while the others were all discussing level 4 and level 5. It got partially to "without touching any controls" for a while, where the system can drive with no hands on steering wheel for long periods of time (I believe you once linked to a trip where 9x% of a cross country trip was done without touching controls), but NHTSA wanted Tesla to implement better enforcement of driver attention (now there is a nag system). So now there will never be a point where regular AP will be "without touching any controls" even if they got the on ramp to off ramp done correctly. So the point is kind of moot. FSD will be the only place where this will be realized.Actually the highest level at that point was level 4 from the NHTSA , which was what everyone used.
Then from SAE a new definition was constructed, level 4 became level 5 and then they created a new level 4. NHTSA and everyone else then adopted SAE levels.
So when Elon mentions level 4, he's talking about level 5.
Source: U.S. Department of Transportation Releases Policy on Automated Vehicle Development
Which is proven by this tweet aswell as Elon describes a car with no driver going anywhere. (which ofcourse you also left out in your commentary)
January 2016: "In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and the car is in NY" -
Elon Musk on Twitter
Also you forgot to add any commentary for the below and i wonder why.
Highway Autonomy / EAP
June 2014: "I am confident that in less than a year you will be able to go from highway on ramp to highway exists without touching any controls." -
Tesla’s 2014 Shareholder meeting [video]
He seems to be fairly consistent about self driving being technically possible in 2018/2019 time frame, but regulations will take a couple years after that.
I clearly disagree with the way that Elon oversells just about everything. You are here on TMC enough to know that I have criticized Tesla strongly on a number of things, including but not limited to factory/delivery QA and transparency. But I can still find positive things to say about what's been done. I can see a positive aspect to a guy who has possibly overpromised because he's blindly optimistic. Click the numeral under my "Messages:" number on the left. Read back to my X delivery, my input on the Ludicrous counter issues and beyond.
That said, a balanced viewpoint includes giving proper credit where credit is due. If someone can't do that, then yes - I think there's a problem with the well. I'm certainly not trying to poison it. But if it's poisoned, I want to ensure the village doesn't drink from it.
In what world is December 2017 equal to 2018/2019?
What we do know is that he's been saying "in 2 years" since 2015 and his latest promise puts it at April 2019 while the initial promise put it at December 2017. That's about 1 year 6 months.