LIT ETF a good long term investment?

[cranker2k]

LIT ETF has been going up steadily. I think it includes about 6% Tesla, and then others are in the lithium battery mining, production, and recycle businesses. Given more and more countries are phasing out ICE and other zero-emission tech (e.g., hydrogen fuel cell) far off and auto manufacturers going to electric, you guys see this ETF keep going up to 4-5 times of present value in the next 5 years?

 

[dautomated]

Never trust any ETF in my life. Their management fee and position changing is what takes away your earnings. Tesla is not just about car company anyway so this holding alone is already diversified as Energy, Transportation, Vehicle and Shared Autonomy sectors.

 

[cranker2k]

Never trust any ETF in my life. Their management fee and position changing is what takes away your earnings. Tesla is not just about car company anyway so this holding alone is already diversified as Energy, Transportation, Vehicle and Shared Autonomy sectors.

Understood. Given that I don't understand most of the players and dynamics in the supply-chain, from mining to processing, I have to rely on those who know the space and can adjust. Those fund managers should deserve to make money for their service on putting together such fund. The bottom line is 1) there appears to be no other fund covering lithium / battery, and 2) the value keep going up at healthy rate and should continue given demand should explode. If not enough supply, price of lithium should go up. If supply is met, then that just mean there are more revenues to the suppliers. No matter what, seems like a no-brainer for medium to long term investment.

Love to hear if something wrong with my logic. Or, if there are alternative funds covering the supply/demand chain.

 

[MitchJi]

Understood. Given that I don't understand most of the players and dynamics in the supply-chain, from mining to processing, I have to rely on those who know the space and can adjust. Those fund managers should deserve to make money for their service on putting together such fund. The bottom line is 1) there appears to be no other fund covering lithium / battery, and 2) the value keep going up at healthy rate and should continue given demand should explode. If not enough supply, price of lithium should go up. If supply is met, then that just mean there are more revenues to the suppliers. No matter what, seems like a no-brainer for medium to long term investment.

Love to hear if something wrong with my logic. Or, if there are alternative funds covering the supply/demand chain.

Investing in something you don't understand is usually a bad idea. The exact opposite of Mark Cuban's advice.

Every battery energy density breakthrough reduces the need for lithium proportionally.

Goodenough's solid state battery has a sodium varient that completely eliminates the need for lithium.

 

[cranker2k]

Investing in something you don't understand is usually a bad idea. The exact opposite of Mark Cuban's advice.

Every battery energy density breakthrough reduces the need for lithium proportionally.

Goodenough's solid state battery has a sodium varient that completely eliminates the need for lithium.

Good point! Shift in raw materials away from lithium will change the landscape, but I haven't 'read' anything else that suggest the production at high capacity, high voltage, and stability. My limited knowledge from reading the news bits suggest that there can be hundreds of variations in the lab, but none have made out that are suitable for EVs.

Agreed on not investing something I don't know how things work. But I doubt any of us understand all efforts/cost required to build a car company or a green energy company, just more or less at a "big picture" level for Tesla.