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Long, LONG time Tesla...analyst I guess at this point. AMA about what's going on in the news.

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Since 2010, I've spent hours (often hours per day) researching electric vehicles and Tesla in particular.

The only upside to this, well, obsession (according to the wife) is investing early and holding forever.

I've seen ALL the FUD. Read almost everything you can think of and then some.

I've seen others in the Tesla community come and go, great folks, great and trusted resources. I've met many in person.

I've seen so much bull caca it makes me fume.

I've seen the public version of stories, of Musk. I've seen his public versions of himself. I know folks who have hung out with him, worked for him.

I have a lot of thoughts about where we are now, what's going on. I have conjecture that I hesitate to share.

I have thoughts about the near future.

But I'm not interested in troll commenters, repurposed social media spin or debate along tribal lines.

If you want an OG to weigh in, well, try me.
 
Since 2010, I've spent hours (often hours per day) researching electric vehicles and Tesla in particular.

The only upside to this, well, obsession (according to the wife) is investing early and holding forever.

I've seen ALL the FUD. Read almost everything you can think of and then some.

I've seen others in the Tesla community come and go, great folks, great and trusted resources. I've met many in person.

I've seen so much bull caca it makes me fume.

I've seen the public version of stories, of Musk. I've seen his public versions of himself. I know folks who have hung out with him, worked for him.

I have a lot of thoughts about where we are now, what's going on. I have conjecture that I hesitate to share.

I have thoughts about the near future.

But I'm not interested in troll commenters, repurposed social media spin or debate along tribal lines.

If you want an OG to weigh in, well, try me.
Some think TSLA price drop (149.87) is unrelated to Elon Musk ownership of Twitter because other stocks also drop too.

So, would you say it's FUD to blame Elon Musk?
 
Some think TSLA price drop is unrelated to Elon Musk ownership of Twitter because other stocks also drop too.

So, would you say it's FUD to blame Elon Musk?
I do not think it is all macro, no.

I do not think TWTR ownership issue is as it seems. It's not what you are reading, too superficial.

I think that the relationships, the allies, the folks involved in Musk's sphere are a geopolitical nightmare from taking on massive entrenched and competing interests.

I think that TWTR as a tool, among other platforms, is also a battleground by these same players.

Corporate media, PR, advertising and social media all evolved into dollars for real eyeballs. They all knew, know and have shifted the game of getting $$ from others to gain their intended outcome. And those who desire an intended outcome have paid handsomely for it. This new media system is mostly manipulative, across types of media. Good and bad players all use and abuse these schemes/systems.

Starting to make sense?
 
..If you want an OG to weigh in, well, try me.
What is your take that instead of getting more sensors, Tesla eliminated radar and sonars instead.

Less hardware means less cost. That translates to more profit and higher stock price.

However, in the long term, is there any concern after paying $15,000 for FSD and customers might still wait for Vision to do a simple distance measurement in parking?
 
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What are your thoughts on REALLY solving FSD as it relates to it being critical to success of Tesla. Do you agree with Elon on this statement below? How much of FSD planned success/Robotaxi service, is baked into the existing TSLA price?

Elon Musk says that Tesla FSD system is “essential” or company is “worth basically zero”​

 
What is your take that instead of getting more sensors, Tesla eliminated radar and sonars instead.

Less hardware means less cost. That translates to more profit and higher stock price.

However, in the long term, is there any concern after paying $15,000 for FSD and customers might still wait for Vision to do a simple distance measurement in parking?
Likely that radar as it existed was not in sum beneficial. It was helpful in some situations but harmful in others.

Radar or other sensors added in the future will not be same technology, if added.
 
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What are your thoughts on REALLY solving FSD as it relates to it being critical to success of Tesla. Do you agree with Elon on this statement below? How much of FSD planned success/Robotaxi service, is baked into the existing TSLA price?

Elon Musk says that Tesla FSD system is “essential” or company is “worth basically zero”​

FSD and all ADAS features only need to be provably better than a human driver to succeed. Will some driver oversight be required? Eventually. Does this mean that FSD/EAP are worthless before this point? No.

FSD/EAP that makes the vehicle safer than a human is very valuable. A true, driverless FSD would be exceedingly valuable.
 
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Do you think Elon's latest antics socially have a strategic purpose (being provocative and then scoring account interaction by sentiment) or is he being impulsive?
I think his public facing actions in person, on social media and as reported in the media are not the full story.

Have you ever seen a politician pivot abruptly on a topic? Why do they so quickly change what their influence is to the public? What are they saying in private? Remember Lindsay Graham pivot in a divot on the golf course with Trump? Or John Boehner pivot from conservative to cannabis king?

Politicians are all actors. They are masters at communicating anything and everything. The topic they communicate changes based on what it is they are supposed to achieve.

Social media/media is the same. You see topics getting pushed depending on what someone who controls those media sources wants to achieve.

Advertisers, PR firms, Marketers are masters at attaining these outcomes for $$$$. The media takes $$$$ to do it. The people paying the $$$ want something.

So you can quickly see the Ad/PR messages in media and soc media for what they are. It's why we have huge political division, yet 70-80% of USA actually broadly agrees on things.

The folks who pay to basically manipulate for their gain are quite well discovered lately. OIl/Gas/Utilities did it for decades. A LOT. Political organizations did it. First, Obama win was credited to his digital strategy. MAGA was more malicious, not only using but abusing digital media. The use of fakery and tracking of the responses was new. And it really worked. Who was the buyer of this outcome? We know it was Russia, China, Mercer, Thiel, Bannon, etc. The next buyers were basically EVERYONE because it worked.

Elon used this system to his advantage, and didn't even need traditional advertising. Now, Automotive industry has started to use the fakery system too.

So all of these parties are really complicit, all benefit financially. Many whistleblowers in media and soc media have detailed how this has and continues to work.

Jack Dorsey knew this, and fought his board about it. In 2020, TWTR stopped selling ads for "influcence". But if you read about what they stopped...they coyly define "ads". Their revenue went from $1B to -$1B in 2020. Jack publicly stated that TWTR should not be an advertising platform. Musk agreed. Parag/Board did not.

Those who used TWTR as part of their fakery scheme NEEDED it. The fight about Elon buying it was about what changes he would endorse for Jack, and what he would maintain for the advantage of those who still needed influence. COULD THE NEW OWNER make changes that benefit on purchasing group over the other?

Who is Musk beholden to? He doesn't have the power in a vacuum. He has upset many, many industries while benefitting others who geopolitically benefit from his disruptions too. Weird alliances. He has the only foreign owned private factory in China? How???? Tesla vertically integrated: this took a lot of material resources and guaranteed contracts. How did they do this when others are so far behind? What were those deals? These types of information are HIGHLY private and secured, we can't really know.

But we know that the Saudi's were the ones named as funding taking Tesla private. We know some of their involvement in Tesla, TWTR. We know of the ties between QIF to many of the same investments. We know the ties of both to MAGA actions in the Trump era. We know the history of the global oil empires and corporations, the role of the Petrodollar.

SO if very wealthy, powerful entities need the fakery machines...they will pay a lot to own or influence them. That $$$ is all over Silicon Valley.

Knowing this, how do you really vet what Musk says in regards to his personal beliefs? You can't. You just can't.

I no longer trust a thing he tweets. I have to look for corroboration about what he says in regards to his companies. I have to research with the media or soc media is "saying" about all of it. I find many disparities and concerns.
 
What's your overall sense of Tesla leading the EV market for the next 5-10 years?
I'd be most confident about their market share through 2026 or so.

The real competition is BYD, VW and Hyundai/Kia. Tesla really has about a 40% market share globally if you remove PHEV and minicars from the numbers.

I would anticipate that rate of growth will be limited by battery and battery material acquisition. BNEF believes that there are only going to be about half of the needed batteries when looking at the stated goals from all EV makers. This "half" is not distributed equally. Tesla and those in China will likely maintain their production goals through 2025-6. US auto is scrambling, with many deals announced but note the volumes are STILL low and not available until 2025-6.

Announcing "models" or the number of them is immaterial to the ability to produce significant volumes. Also note that many companies 2025-6 goals are with technology from 1-2 years ago. By then, that tech will be 3-4 years old when it comes online at scale. Tesla OTOH is ramping 4680 at volumes few can match, even with others starting to look at 4680 production or other tech that might match it. None of these other technologies appear to be in the pipeline to match Tesla's 2025-6 scale IRT battery. The battery is the biggest cost BTW, and the more batteries needed per vehicle due to poor efficiency/heavy weight the more those companies will fail to attain volumes. Truck only companies beware. US and traditional luxury auto are in the same boat: inefficient.

BYD is not in this position, as their pivot to LFP and Blade are brilliant for the segment that it works for. Tesla pivoted to LFP for this reason. It's unclear how well others can pivot the cell chemistry (Ultium for example).

The margins per vehicle are also important. Mache can't make any profit. VW takes 3x as many workers and time per vehicle to make. Automaker with high margins, little debt, massive FCF, increasing earnings along 50% CAGR YOY...compare those thoughts when you think about this question.

I think assessing these predictions as we near 2025 will help you understand where we will be in 2028 or so, and that's enough to really crunch some numbers on Tesla valuation. It's stupidly low right now. Massively low. Based only on sentiment. Losers trade only on sentiment!
 
Since 2010, I've spent hours (often hours per day) researching electric vehicles and Tesla in particular.

The only upside to this, well, obsession (according to the wife) is investing early and holding forever.

I've seen ALL the FUD. Read almost everything you can think of and then some.

I've seen others in the Tesla community come and go, great folks, great and trusted resources. I've met many in person.

I've seen so much bull caca it makes me fume.

I've seen the public version of stories, of Musk. I've seen his public versions of himself. I know folks who have hung out with him, worked for him.

I have a lot of thoughts about where we are now, what's going on. I have conjecture that I hesitate to share.

I have thoughts about the near future.

But I'm not interested in troll commenters, repurposed social media spin or debate along tribal lines.

If you want an OG to weigh in, well, try me.
3 words.

Buy the Dip

Limited time only fire sale.
 
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Since 2010, I've spent hours (often hours per day) researching electric vehicles and Tesla in particular.

The only upside to this, well, obsession (according to the wife) is investing early and holding forever.

I've seen ALL the FUD. Read almost everything you can think of and then some.

I've seen others in the Tesla community come and go, great folks, great and trusted resources. I've met many in person.

I've seen so much bull caca it makes me fume.

I've seen the public version of stories, of Musk. I've seen his public versions of himself. I know folks who have hung out with him, worked for him.

I have a lot of thoughts about where we are now, what's going on. I have conjecture that I hesitate to share.

I have thoughts about the near future.

But I'm not interested in troll commenters, repurposed social media spin or debate along tribal lines.

If you want an OG to weigh in, well, try me.
Been there done that. Has been since about 2015 for me. Seen and read about as much FUD as one can see. Done my fair share of arguments with shorts. Dealt with all the narratives, fought all the FUD, cheap jabs at Elon, cheap jabs at Model 3, production, software, profitability, you name it.

Its all noise. You have to not get pulled from reality into the illusive realm of the media.

$21B in the bank
0 debt.
30%+ vehicle margins
10% of the way to their ultimate production goal.
Still no cybertruck, roadster, FSD, robocab, (van?)
Tesla energy still dramatically ramping. Tesla energy creeping into being a utility.
Front and Rear castings have yet to be implemented to Model 3.
2 factories ramping. New factory will be announced in Mexico.
Tesla Bot.

You cannot get lost in the noise.
 
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