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Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

MitchJi

Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Jun 1, 2015
3,971
8,905
Marin County, CA
Hi,

My LT ER-CC thoughts:
CC-about 55 minutes said:
Question:....with what you've gone through over the past few years in bringing this car to market, does this change your thinking at all over the longer term when you think about the pace that you will bring M3 to market....?

EM:
still aiming to have M3 in about 2 years, so but I think the cadence of future products should improve, as we have more resources to shorten the critical path on things like I was mentioning earlier like stamping tools and molding dies, the things that tend to drive our schedule, because from the time a car is designed it can take almost 2 years to get fully tooled up, that seems like a crazy amount of time to us and we want to try to reduce that significantly.
EM's statements above, combined with his decision to be more cautious about announcing schedules indicates that the design of the M3 is close to complete, and they have already taken and are currently taking steps to derisk potential M3 ramp issues.

Stationary storage:
CC-JB:..still see a lot of technical differentiation - plug-n-play etc...
Exactly like their cars!

CC said:
We are growing our worldwide Tesla Energy sales team and are continuing to sign new business partnerships with utilities and energy companies

CC ~5 minutes said:
Question:SS still trending toward your target of (2?).5 billion by 2017?

EM-Reply: even if only a small fraction are valid we are sold out through 2016 and be well into 2017. So it's really mostly about predicting our production rate... we expect very dramatic increases in the SS production...
Can anyone understand the number, it sounded like $2.5B?

IMO the number above is not important beyond giving us a rough idea of the expected scale, because they believe (based on the huge response, the knowledge that their SS products are very high quality and are priced disruptively) that they will be able to sell as many units as they can produce for the foreseeable future.

I'm paraphrasing here, but I found this tidbit excellent info to all the naysayers who say "but have you seen XXX battery tech?!":

"We track every battery tech lab in the world. All the people inventing battery tech know that Tesla will be their biggest customer [if they succeed in improving materially on what we currently use]. We are currently tracking about 60 labs, and we rate them from 1 to 5, with 5 being we should be doing business with them now, 4 being we should consider preliminary discussions, and 1 being complete B.S. We currently have a few 3's out there, but no 4's or 5's."
- Elon Musk, Baron Investment Conference, November 6, 2015
EM-CC-Replies to a question about GM reported cell cost of $145:
EM: We are constantly agonizing about cell cost and pack cost and we don't think anyone is on a path to be even close to us. if they are I will be the first to congratulate them.
Their pack prices are much lower than almost everyone, even here in the TMC Investment Forum realizes. I have even been asked to not post my opinions (which are the results of careful analysis) on this topic. I believe that within 3-5 years their cost for 250 mile range EV drive-trains will be less than for ice engines with transmissions.

ER said:
In early Q4, we relocated production from Fremont to an automated assembly line at the Gigafactory.
That's an important step, yielding at least a 5% reduction in pack prices.
ER said:
In conjunction with development of the Gigafactory, we recently signed two conditional purchase orders for lithium hydroxide in order to promote sourcing of this commodity at lower cost and with reduced environmental impact.
I believe that a major reason that these signings were made public was to help these companies procure funding in order to ramp production. An example of taking forward looking, clever, low cost steps to insure future supplies of a critical resource.
 
Last edited:

chickensevil

Active Member
Jan 2, 2014
4,139
261
Virginia, United States
Hi,
Their pack prices are much lower than almost everyone, even here in the TMC Investment Forum realizes. I have even been asked to not post my opinions (which are the results of careful analysis) on this topic. I believe that within 3-5 years their cost for 250 mile range EV drive-trains will be less than for ice engines with transmissions.

I believe that a major reason that these signings were made public was to help these companies procure funding in order to ramp production. An example of taking forward looking, clever, low cost steps to insure future supplies of a critical resource.

Wait, who told you to stop posting comments on pack prices? I think we all like to engage in a little pack price speculation now and then. If you are going to provide in depth analysis on anything I am all for it! I love when people post something that took hours of research to put together :D

We really need to take another look at where we feel TM is at on their pack prices, and where they will be in 2017 and again in 2020. Because there have been quite a few new comments from the company on this front which I think changes that game for us and I would agree that they are likely lower now and in the future than most are planning for. The big number is under 100$/kWh, I would not be surprised to see this achieved before 2020.

As to the second piece I highlighted, I would agree with that being the stated reason for doing this. If I was seeking financing to do exploration and mining projects, and I had a deal signed with Tesla Motors and their Famous battery factory it would do a lot to assure would be investors that their money is well spent since TM has assessed all available lithium sources and settled on one of two choices (or possibly both?)
 

schonelucht

Well-Known Member
Mar 10, 2014
5,080
8,770
Nederland
Beyond the cost of a single cell, is there a lot of scope in the rest of the pack assembly to win in cost structure vis - a - vis other manufacturers? If so, how? If we compare a 2018 Bolt vs a 2018 Model 3 would it be fair to expect cell pricing to be $145 vs $120/kWh?
 

electracity

Active Member
Jun 8, 2015
4,028
2,531
60606
It's not meaningful to compare pack prices between EV's. In one car the pack could be part of the structure, in another car the pack might needed additional structure. Plus, the manufacturers would never release the costing to allow a good comparison between brands by outsiders.
Cells are near commodity, however.
As far as cells, I don't believe Tesla can build a new battery factory and have substantially lower cell prices by 2018. If lower prices happen, it will be later. What will really be happening in 2018 is Tesla recovering cash flow from previous capex in the gigafactory.
 

MikeC

Supporting Member
Jul 9, 2012
2,843
5,092
Los Angeles
Beyond the cost of a single cell, is there a lot of scope in the rest of the pack assembly to win in cost structure vis - a - vis other manufacturers? If so, how? If we compare a 2018 Bolt vs a 2018 Model 3 would it be fair to expect cell pricing to be $145 vs $120/kWh?

Don't know the answer to your question, but you got me thinking about the $145 GM cell cost, which I always found kind of suspicious. I don't recall this article being posted here, but it says that LG was angry that GM disclosed the price they were paying for cells, and LG sells them for at least $100 more to everyone else: LG Chem With GM For Disclosing $145/kWh Battery Cell Pricing - Video

This slide also showed that GM's cell cost will be $145 through 2019, while JB has said that they expect $100 range by 2020: Tesla Projects Battery Costs Could Drop To $100/KWH By 2020 - HybridCars.com
bolt batteries.PNG


With JB and Elon dismissing this as an issue on the recent conference call, I think this is marketing by GM more than it is any erosion of Tesla's cost advantage.
 

MitchJi

Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Jun 1, 2015
3,971
8,905
Marin County, CA
The one link that I need to pretty convincingly demonstrate how much Tesla's pack costs are ahead of the rest of the industry is I read a post, pretty sure it was on TMC, that discusses a video of JB talking about the cost reductions when they start producing cells at the GF. He talked about the cost reductions from the cells vs the cost reductions due to the GF.

If someone could either post or PM me the link I would appreciate it.


Thank You!
 

electracity

Active Member
Jun 8, 2015
4,028
2,531
60606
With JB and Elon dismissing this as an issue on the recent conference call, I think this is marketing by GM more than it is any erosion of Tesla's cost advantage.

AFAIK, Musk has never made a single dollar of profit from manufacturing anything, and Tesla has never made a single battery cell. Who is doing the "marketing"?. Big, established corporations are very conservative making forward looking statements. Cost data is extraordinarily central to manufacturers. The chart you see is probably worst case, not optimistic.
 

Familial Rhino

Endangerous Herbivore
Feb 27, 2014
1,555
5,122
Toronto, ON
AFAIK, Musk has never made a single dollar of profit from manufacturing anything, and Tesla has never made a single battery cell.
This is highly disingenuous, since I'm sure you know why Tesla hasn't made a profit yet, and SpaceX by all accounts is profitable. And if Tesla's contribution to the battery tech is as inconsequential as you claim, it's on you to point out where those superior batteries from the competition are. Oh, wait, they are in the future.

Who is doing the "marketing"?.
All the Model S cars currently on the roads. The product speaks for itself.

Big, established corporations are very conservative making forward looking statements. Cost data is extraordinarily central to manufacturers. The chart you see is probably worst case, not optimistic.
Yes, manufacturers being conservative is why they announce a new Tesla killer every other week, all for 2018 and beyond. It's not that they can't manufacture them yet, they could do that at any time, they're just being conservative. Got it.

Look, I see a lot of proof that established manufacturers can build millions of cars with last century's tech for low margins. I see no guarantee that they are able to compete in this century. I'm sure some will figure it out, but the jury is still in session, judging by what they've been able to come up with so far.

The proof that Tesla can do what they set out to do is in their deployed EV fleet. People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.
 

RobStark

Well-Known Member
Jul 2, 2013
10,228
52,305
City of Champions, USA
Commodity cells have commodity pricing on the open market.

Tesla is buying cells with made to order chemistry at massive scale compared to any other buyer.

It is highly doubtful they are paying the same price as Fry's electronics for their 18650 cells.

- - - Updated - - -

BTW I came here expecting a discussion on Elon's comments at the Baron Conference that it is not out of the question that Tesla will one day be bigger than GM.\


Elon did not specify Market Cap, Revenue or Units sold.

Also 500 mile BEVs are about a decade away.


http://insideevs.com/elon-musk-question-tesla-larger-gm-500-mile-evs-coming/
 

chickensevil

Active Member
Jan 2, 2014
4,139
261
Virginia, United States
Commodity cells have commodity pricing on the open market.

Tesla is buying cells with made to order chemistry at massive scale compared to any other buyer.

It is highly doubtful they are paying the same price as Fry's electronics for their 18650 cells.

- - - Updated - - -

BTW I came here expecting a discussion on Elon's comments at the Baron Conference that it is not out of the question that Tesla will one day be bigger than GM.\


Elon did not specify Market Cap, Revenue or Units sold.

Also 500 mile BEVs are about a decade away.


http://insideevs.com/elon-musk-question-tesla-larger-gm-500-mile-evs-coming/

Not to mention Baron's own market cap estimate of 120B by 2020 :) I'll take that number, time to buy more shares. A 4 year return of 400% is pretty good I would say.
 

pbceng

Member
Aug 9, 2015
42
4
UK
I'm interested to know why Tesla's in house sales and service centres should cost them more than using a dealer network. The dealers do put money up front to equip their stores but then reap the rewards of their investment by buying cars in bulk from the OEM at below market rates and selling them at a premium to customers. The more cars they agree to buy up front the lower the price. The point however is the difference is what funds the dealer network and pays for their investment plus generating a nice healthy profit. If you strip that out then the profit in the dealer network becomes the OEMs. Upfront investment will of course be higher, but in Tesla's case the vehicles are significantly simpler and almost certainly require less investment.

There is an additional but related problem that dealerships make a lot of money from servicing which on a BEV should be a lot lower (much lower level of consumables for one thing). There is therefore a disincentive for them to promote BEV sales over ICE whether under the same roof or within the same business network.

The laws protecting dealers from OEM competition in the US came about because the dealers could not be competitive against an OEM store because they had less margin to sell and it amounted to unfair competition. If that wasn't the case then the laws wouldn't have been enacted - does that not support the Tesla model

I've read Bob Lutz's comments but while I have a huge amount of respect for him personally, in this case I think the Tesla model is so far away from the Ford/Chrysler/GM one that he's been steeped in that I think he's unable to see the wood for the trees.

I would be very interested if anyone can explain why using a dealer network would make financial sense.
 

wdolson

Well-Known Member
Jul 24, 2015
7,418
9,916
Clark Co, WA
I'm interested to know why Tesla's in house sales and service centres should cost them more than using a dealer network. The dealers do put money up front to equip their stores but then reap the rewards of their investment by buying cars in bulk from the OEM at below market rates and selling them at a premium to customers. The more cars they agree to buy up front the lower the price. The point however is the difference is what funds the dealer network and pays for their investment plus generating a nice healthy profit. If you strip that out then the profit in the dealer network becomes the OEMs. Upfront investment will of course be higher, but in Tesla's case the vehicles are significantly simpler and almost certainly require less investment.

There is an additional but related problem that dealerships make a lot of money from servicing which on a BEV should be a lot lower (much lower level of consumables for one thing). There is therefore a disincentive for them to promote BEV sales over ICE whether under the same roof or within the same business network.

The laws protecting dealers from OEM competition in the US came about because the dealers could not be competitive against an OEM store because they had less margin to sell and it amounted to unfair competition. If that wasn't the case then the laws wouldn't have been enacted - does that not support the Tesla model

I've read Bob Lutz's comments but while I have a huge amount of respect for him personally, in this case I think the Tesla model is so far away from the Ford/Chrysler/GM one that he's been steeped in that I think he's unable to see the wood for the trees.

I would be very interested if anyone can explain why using a dealer network would make financial sense.

I'm no insider to the car business, but I think it's a cash flow thing. For a manufacturer, the faster you can get your money for the finished goods, the faster you can plow that back into building more stuff. Dealers buy the newly built cars from the factory, which gets the builder their money. In most cases the dealer is probably buying the cars on a line of credit hoping to flip the cars as fast as possible to make as much as they can. But the builder doesn't care that much as long as enough dealers stay in business selling their cars, the individual dealers are taking the risks that the cars won't sell. If a dealer buys a bunch of sub-compacts in Oklahoma and all the people walking into the dealer want pickups, the dealer made a bad move and might go bankrupt, but there is another franchise in the next town over that bought a slew of the right vehicle and they sell out.

I do see one point Bob Lutz has. The dealer system does buffer the manufacturer against downturns in the market. A short downturn would be rough on dealers, but the factory may only slow down production a bit for a little while. With a direct sales model like Tesla has, it works great as long as the demand is there, but if demand gets soft, there is no inventory buffer and the ripples get back to the factory much faster. Tesla has never really had to deal with that, and who knows what will happen when it does. If there isn't another financial crisis like 2008, it will probably be a while before Tesla has to face that question. Right now there is a huge pool of potential customers who want a Tesla, but can't afford a Model S or X, but could afford a Model 3 when it comes out. If they don't make any major mistakes with the Model 3, demand will probably outstrip supply for years after introduction.

As for the laws against competition in the car business, some of the laws are fairly recent. For example the US state of Georgia did a major overhaul to protect car dealers as recently as 1999. The dealers were probably getting concerned in the 1990s because people could shop for cars on the internet. Some US states allow car brokers who will shop many dealers throughout a region and arrange to have the car shipped to you from the dealer which is the cheapest. A lot of these laws came about to shut down brokers. It does make dealers in cities where expenses are high compete with dealers in rural areas. Here in Washington State, the sale taxes can vary quite a bit from county to county and the county with the lowest tax rate has dealers for every car you can imagine. The last time my SO bought a car, she got the best deal from a dealer in that county so we drove up there to pick it up (about 50 miles for us). She saved about $500 in sales tax alone, plus they sold it to her a little cheaper than the local dealer would.

Back in 1992 I talked to a broker when I bought my last car, but I ended up going with the local dealer which was about the same price that round. The broker was working with a dealer 120 miles away who would ship the car to me so I didn't even have to go there.

My state isn't as protectionist of car dealers, so I don't think Tesla has had any problems here. The laws vary quite a bit from one state to the next.
 

electracity

Active Member
Jun 8, 2015
4,028
2,531
60606
.........

I would be very interested if anyone can explain why using a dealer network would make financial sense.

Dealers are in many ways a franchise model. The benefit is capital investment and local management. In a high volume, low margin business it is understandable that car sales follow this model. With the internet and EV's with lower service requirements (cough), it is understandable that Tesla would be interested in selling direct. But we will see if they are really interested in selling direct in secondary and all foreign markets.
 

RobStark

Well-Known Member
Jul 2, 2013
10,228
52,305
City of Champions, USA
Trade Journal Automotive News interviews Cadillac Brand Boss Johan De Nysschen.

"Sticker prices on the (Cadillac) CT6 (full size) sedan, for example, range from $54,490 to $84,460 at the top of the range, including shipping. That's far below the pricing on the BMW 7 series, which has comparable size and power and runs from the low $70,000s to around $100,000.


De Nysschen said he would rather price the CT6 to sell than be forced to ladle out incentives, which has become common in the market for midsize and large luxury sedans. He said average incentive spending in recent months has equaled a lofty 17 percent of transaction prices in those categories. "

http://www.autonews.com/article/201...adillac-wants-its-new-vehicles-to-earn-prices

Gee, I wonder what might be causing full size-mid size luxury sedan prices in the United States to collapse but not compact midsize or full size luxury SUVs/Crossovers/Trucks. Nor compact luxury sedans.
 

Lessmog

Active Member
Aug 24, 2013
2,621
6,536
Smögen
Gee, I wonder what might be causing full size-mid size luxury sedan prices in the United States to collapse but not compact midsize or full size luxury SUVs/Crossovers/Trucks. Nor compact luxury sedans.
Big mystery indeed. Could there be some unknown factor, let's call it "X"?
:confused: :wink:
 

MitchJi

Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Jun 1, 2015
3,971
8,905
Marin County, CA
Heres Why Tesla Will Kick Google To The Curb - Gas 2

<Snip>
The beauty of the subsumption model used by Tesla is that its cars do not require a world map that is exact to the centimeter. Barnard says that one factor alone means that Teslas are “just fine with much coarser grained maps which are much easier to build, store, manipulate and layer with intelligence as needed.” He concludes with this thought: “The rapid leaps in capability of the Autopilot in just a few days after release should be giving Google serious pause. By the time its software geniuses get the Google car ready for prime time on a subset of roads that it has mapped to centimeter scale with special sensor cars, Teslas will be able to literally drive circles around.”

And that is why Tesla will rule the world of autonomous driving. Thank you, Mike Barnard, for your expert analysis.
 

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