Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
I'm wondering a lot about what Tesla can accomplish with its competitive advantage in AP technologies: it's seems to me that the lead is almost definitive.
My rationale is that:
  • more Tesla are on the streets: and the rate of deliveries is increasing rapidly
  • the more a driver uses AP, the more she will use it
  • they will likely change sensors in new MS and MX versions (upgrade hardware)
Tesla gains millions AP-driven miles per day, and that is a *unique* asset.


So, what to do you think will they be doing with that?
  • Just keep Apple at distance?
  • Use it as a competitive advantage against all other EVs
  • provide an Uber-like service in the level 4 future?
  • (unlikely, but possible) Sell the data to competitors at a very high price to sustain their growth?
  • All (or some of) the above?
 
I'm wondering a lot about what Tesla can accomplish with its competitive advantage in AP technologies: it's seems to me that the lead is almost definitive.
My rationale is that:
  • more Tesla are on the streets: and the rate of deliveries is increasing rapidly
  • the more a driver uses AP, the more she will use it
  • they will likely change sensors in new MS and MX versions (upgrade hardware)
Tesla gains millions AP-driven miles per day, and that is a *unique* asset.


So, what to do you think will they be doing with that?
  • Just keep Apple at distance?
  • Use it as a competitive advantage against all other EVs
  • provide an Uber-like service in the level 4 future?
  • (unlikely, but possible) Sell the data to competitors at a very high price to sustain their growth?
  • All (or some of) the above?

If autopilot 8.0 is as good as Elon says, thousands of lives could be saved if the technology were leased by Tesla and adopted by the auto industry. The motivation for Tesla to do so will be to save lives rather than profit - expect the cost to others to be close to break-even (in order to have the widest adoption). Of interest will be to see if Detroit and others are willing to adopt a life-saving technology from Tesla?
 
I'm wondering a lot about what Tesla can accomplish with its competitive advantage in AP technologies: it's seems to me that the lead is almost definitive.
My rationale is that:
  • more Tesla are on the streets: and the rate of deliveries is increasing rapidly
  • the more a driver uses AP, the more she will use it
  • they will likely change sensors in new MS and MX versions (upgrade hardware)
Tesla gains millions AP-driven miles per day, and that is a *unique* asset.


So, what to do you think will they be doing with that?
  • Just keep Apple at distance?
  • Use it as a competitive advantage against all other EVs
  • provide an Uber-like service in the level 4 future?
  • (unlikely, but possible) Sell the data to competitors at a very high price to sustain their growth?
  • All (or some of) the above?

Tesla is ahead of the competition in AP and they will likely stay ahead of the competition for years to come. No matter what they do with AP, everybody is working on the tech and the competition will eventually catch up. I wouldn't be too worried about Apple, what they have now is vaporware and it seems like their car program is dysfunctional.

Google has a lot of autonomous miles, but they are all at low speed. They may develop something marketable eventually. Their program is not fraught with problems though.

Most traditional car companies are working on AP systems. They have the advantage of having a lot of experience with cars. At least some of those companies will come up with decent systems if not all.

The killer combo for Tesla is they will not only be offering high quality AP systems, but they will be way ahead of everyone in full production full EVs and they are going to be the only company with a large enough battery supply to be in full production for at least the next five years.

I think it will be likely that the Model 3 is going to be a big hit and if so, the combo of EV capabilities and AP will give Tesla a major competitive advantage for a long time.
 
Tesla and Real Estate?

Build Roadster, get investors and buyers. ==> Buy NUMMI ==> Build more cars/Model S, get more investors and buyers.

Rent(?) and buy space for Superchargers. ==> Make cars usable for long distance travel. Get more buyers.

Build more cars, announce Model 3 ==> Build GF with Panasonic; expand NUMMI

GF will need power to charge cells, Superchargers will need more energy, TE getting contracts, as well as other reasons ==> TSLA/SCTY merger. From merger ==> Get Buffalo Factory (lease) ==> Get Panasonic on board again!

SMP2 ==> AP 2.0 with Autonomy optional! Self charging capable with "snake" charger ==> Will Tesla start buying/building parking structures to include automated "snake" chargers and allow Autonomous Teslas a place to wait, charge and possibly "park"? Potentially use these structures as sales/service centers (thus not pay rent) or rent out space (generate extra income)?

Also for major urban centers (e.g.--NYC) could provide an added incentive to buy a Tesla: "Parking and extra income included! Just summon when you need your car..."

Wonder if a Tesla REIT could be in the future?
 
Tesla and Real Estate?

[...]

Wonder if a Tesla REIT could be in the future?
I have no idea what a REIT is, but Real Estate is a basic function of any large footprint company. Of course they make it part of their corpus, their life body blood and soul, as it were. If they don't, they practically don't exist.

Now, looking up REIT: Ok, I see that as a way to turn real estate into a publicly tradable item. I'd be concerned what the risks are to the underlying functions of that land. One of the main benefits of being an owner is that you control it. The value to Tesla of controlling their factory is immense; they are attacked literally on almost all sides by those who wish to muck up their works, so, more than anyone, or as much as anyone who needs to avoid outsider attacks, Tesla needs to control its own stuff. If there's even a hint that the land under their very own factory could become at risk because of outside control, then that would jeopardize and cost the factory, and therefore, their entire product lineup. That is entirely unacceptable to a vertically integrated new product type market creating company like Tesla while they don't have complete redundancy at every level, and even if they do arbitrage such jeopardy by having redundancy, they can't even over-risk their redundancy itself. I don't even want to read more about what a REIT is without knowing more about their general history, and I assume that what I would learn would be overly opposed to the principles of Tesla itself.

Having said all that, I think and assume from the very general inputs I've seen so far, that any and all Real Estate considerations that allow Tesla to perform its goals without interference should be and probably are already considered. I know this sounds like a boring conclusion, but it really isn't in my opinion, but here it is: without looking into it and just getting a "general sense" of what I've read so far from Tesla and other companies, I assume Tesla probably is close to doing the right things with Real Estate, and that mucking it up by trying out dangerous Real Estate functions would not be good.

Specifics of what Tesla is doing with Real Estate, on the other hand, would go beyond my particular knowledge level (to varying degrees). I'd be fascinated to know some of it, and kind of mildly interested in the rest.

For instance, we learned that Tesla is doing some sort of landlord-tenant thing with their Nevada and soon New York factories to Panasonic. Probably, the idea was infectious: Panasonic, Tesla employees, etc., probably all said "hey that's how everyone does it", and indeed, I've run into the same factory-as-hotel concept at Intel in Santa Clara, and I assume it's endemic. I also think that by now, that is a worked out system, and once they trust all the parties (in the more specific case of Tesla-Panasonic, at least), the real estate portions of the agreements aren't any more risky than the agreements they made to perform work, which are, of course, all about doing stuff, so the real estate stuff is basically just a subordinate consideration (terms of which could easily be made appropriate to the main) to the goals of the agreement, so that type of real estate deal seems just fine to me. I'm sure there are those in this field who would, with decades under their belt, complain that I have an incorrect "beginner's view" of the topic, making "beginner's" mistakes, but whatever, since the idea is that they probably have a pretty good track record doing this type of real estate deal.

It's kind of like going up to a family's house, and saying "Hey, can you give me your house? I'll play with its ownership! Lots of money will be involved, and other people will have control of what used to be your land!" Although, it's even worse with a factory: instead of risking one family's homelessness and life savings, you're risking an entire planet and species, in the case of Tesla, as well as the livelihoods of multiple families. The family might get enough money out of the REIT to walk away and get a tent to camp in, at least, but a whole factory? Forget about it. Way too much integrated into that thing for it to be worth the risk.

How many large profitable chain stores have you seen close because they refused to succeed, and the main part of that is that they sold their land and the landlords raised their rent? Practically all of them here in Silicon Valley. Probably, they had a benefit to failing, for whatever reason --- their owners probably had bought a lot of Put options in the stock market against their own companies. But, they were only selling commodity goods. Tesla isn't some damn commodity, yet. (We can only dream that one day it will be, but that's at least a quarter century away, if not longer.) For now, the risk is too great for those shenanigans.
 
Last edited:
I have no idea what a REIT is, but Real Estate is a basic function of any large footprint company. Of course they make it part of their corpus, their life body blood and soul, as it were. If they don't, they practically don't exist.

Now, looking up REIT: Ok, I see that as a way to turn real estate into a publicly tradable item. I'd be concerned what the risks are to the underlying functions of that land. One of the main benefits of being an owner is that you control it. The value to Tesla of controlling their factory is immense; they are attacked literally on almost all sides by those who wish to muck up their works, so, more than anyone, or as much as anyone who needs to avoid outsider attacks, Tesla needs to control its own stuff. If there's even a hint that the land under their very own factory could become at risk because of outside control, then that would jeopardize and cost the factory, and therefore, their entire product lineup. That is entirely unacceptable to a vertically integrated new product type market creating company like Tesla while they don't have complete redundancy at every level, and even if they do arbitrage such jeopardy by having redundancy, they can't even over-risk their redundancy itself. I don't even want to read more about what a REIT is without knowing more about their general history, and I assume that what I would learn would be overly opposed to the principles of Tesla itself.

Having said all that, I think and assume from the very general inputs I've seen so far, that any and all Real Estate considerations that allow Tesla to perform its goals without interference should be and probably are already considered. I know this sounds like a boring conclusion, but it really isn't in my opinion, but here it is: without looking into it and just getting a "general sense" of what I've read so far from Tesla and other companies, I assume Tesla probably is close to doing the right things with Real Estate, and that mucking it up by trying out dangerous Real Estate functions would not be good.

Specifics of what Tesla is doing with Real Estate, on the other hand, would go beyond my particular knowledge level (to varying degrees). I'd be fascinated to know some of it, and kind of mildly interested in the rest.

For instance, we learned that Tesla is doing some sort of landlord-tenant thing with their Nevada and soon New York factories to Panasonic. Probably, the idea was infectious: Panasonic, Tesla employees, etc., probably all said "hey that's how everyone does it", and indeed, I've run into the same factory-as-hotel concept at Intel in Santa Clara, and I assume it's endemic. I also think that by now, that is a worked out system, and once they trust all the parties (in the more specific case of Tesla-Panasonic, at least), the real estate portions of the agreements aren't any more risky than the agreements they made to perform work, which are, of course, all about doing stuff, so the real estate stuff is basically just a subordinate consideration (terms of which could easily be made appropriate to the main) to the goals of the agreement, so that type of real estate deal seems just fine to me. I'm sure there are those in this field who would, with decades under their belt, complain that I have an incorrect "beginner's view" of the topic, making "beginner's" mistakes, but whatever, since the idea is that they probably have a pretty good track record doing this type of real estate deal.

It's kind of like going up to a family's house, and saying "Hey, can you give me your house? I'll play with its ownership! Lots of money will be involved, and other people will have control of what used to be your land!" Although, it's even worse with a factory: instead of risking one family's homelessness and life savings, you're risking an entire planet and species, in the case of Tesla, as well as the livelihoods of multiple families. The family might get enough money out of the REIT to walk away and get a tent to camp in, at least, but a whole factory? Forget about it. Way too much integrated into that thing for it to be worth the risk.

How many large profitable chain stores have you seen close because they refused to succeed, and the main part of that is that they sold their land and the landlords raised their rent? Practically all of them here in Silicon Valley. Probably, they had a benefit to failing, for whatever reason --- their owners probably had bought a lot of Put options in the stock market against their own companies. But, they were only selling commodity goods. Tesla isn't some damn commodity, yet. (We can only dream that one day it will be, but that's at least a quarter century away, if not longer.) For now, the risk is too great for those shenanigans.

Yes, definitely now is not the time for a Tesla REIT. And I do not know how they structured their Supercharger location deals, are they leasing space? Did they buy sections of the lots? I know some are located with Service/Sales Centers. But many of those are rented/leased as well.

It would seem to be a good way to decrease expenses if they actually owned the land. As time goes on, if Tesla begins to become more of an infrastructure company, even a "utility" with SCTY/TSLA merger, then they may need to start to look at owning properties and land.

Assuming Tesla Network comes online, they will need a place to store their rentable fleet. IIRC, they have already said they will keep Tesla owned vehicles available for hire, separate from you and me. Presumably this place will have the snake chargers to allow the cars to charge autonomously, and be powered with Solar and power packs. This all needs land and space. Better to own the land than rent it.

The REIT would allow them to get additional money from investors outside of the TSLA stock, for the expressed purposes of buying and developing and using real estate. Obviously they would have to pay dividends for that, but if they can generate income with electricity and autonomous vehicle rentals it could allow them to expand their properties and presence. And over time, since Teslas vehicles are "clean", the land itself could be expanded into retail and or commercial use as well (more income). I mention this last part because most automobile dealerships/repair companies typically are sectioned away due to their polluting qualities, thereby reducing property values and resale and cross-usability.

They would of course leave NUMMI/GFs out of the REITs as those are the core holdings of the company (Sorry if I didn't make that clear). But for additional expansion a REIT could be of benefit as it could provide additional sources of investment money separate from TSLA/SCTY.

I was thinking of this because some on the short-term thread were disparaging the Solarcity factory arrangements with Panasonic, yelling "What, is Tesla becoming a real estate company?!" And I kept thinking, typically real estate companies don't do that badly.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: SW2Fiddler
Yes, definitely now is not the time for a Tesla REIT. And I do not know how they structured their Supercharger location deals, are they leasing space? Did they buy sections of the lots? I know some are located with Service/Sales Centers. But many of those are rented/leased as well.

For those who don't know and are curious (I was), it sounds like at least as of a few years ago, Supercharger stations were done as mutually beneficial agreements between Tesla and the local land owner, such as a restaurant or other business. Granted, this might have changed since then, but assuming it was working out, I would see no reason to discontinue the practice. Agreements appear to be 5-10 years.

Tech Crunch: What It Takes To Be A Tesla Supercharger Partner - Inside EVs
Inside Tesla’s Supercharger Partner Program: The Costs And Commitments Of Electrifying Road Transport
 
Yes, definitely now is not the time for a Tesla REIT.

...

Assuming Tesla Network comes online, they will need a place to store their rentable fleet. IIRC, they have already said they will keep Tesla owned vehicles available for hire, separate from you and me. Presumably this place will have the snake chargers to allow the cars to charge autonomously, and be powered with Solar and power packs. This all needs land and space. Better to own the land than rent it.

The REIT would allow them to get additional money from investors outside of the TSLA stock, for the expressed purposes of buying and developing and using real estate. Obviously they would have to pay dividends for that, but if they can generate income with electricity and autonomous vehicle rentals it could allow them to expand their properties and presence. And over time, since Teslas vehicles are "clean", the land itself could be expanded into retail and or commercial use as well (more income). I mention this last part because most automobile dealerships/repair companies typically are sectioned away due to their polluting qualities, thereby reducing property values and resale and cross-usability.

They would of course leave NUMMI/GFs out of the REITs as those are the core holdings of the company.

Yes, I agree that Solar City is doing everything the way Silicon Valley does things, so no problem there (leasing to Panasonic). I agree that they have to keep their "core" holdings part of the company, as you put it. Now that you explained that the REITs would be for their flexible assets, such as solar panels, car rentals, superchargers, i.e., anything that would be pretty easy to move, then that cost to move the goods would be calculated into a risk pool, and a certain % of those positions (superchargers, solar collectors, car rental land) could be farmed out to REITs. I think they'd have to be strategic: never REIT two superchargers that are within 5 miles of each other, and other things like that, so that if one goes belly-up due to landlord squeezes, the other one just putters along fine. Here, both the REIT and the local establishment have a different ownership profile, so two superchargers next to each other would de-risk each other by having different ownership profiles.

Yes, please leave the factories out of the REITs! That would be bad. (Until, that is, the factories themselves are commodities, which Tesla is working on, so that may come to pass, but only then, and only if the cost risks would be OK, and redundancy OK, etc.).
 
  • Like
Reactions: GoTslaGo
I posted this in the Short term thread, but I think it belongs here as well. The Analysts are really clueless. 2.5 Billion in sales next quarter = 10 Billion/year. With 50% growth in S and X next year, that is 15 Billion in S and X sales. Add another 3 Billion for 50,000 Model 3 at average price of $60k, and another 2 Billion in TE, we are looking at 20 Billion in sales next year. In 2018, 20 Billion in S and X, 30 Billion in Model 3, and ? (10-30 Billion in TE). We are talking 50-70 Billion in Sales two years from now. I think a capital raise early next year will be the last. I'm not selling any shares for at least 3-5 years. Shorts and "Analysts" have NO IDEA what is coming.
 
I'm wondering a lot about what Tesla can accomplish with its competitive advantage in AP technologies: it's seems to me that the lead is almost definitive.
My rationale is that:
  • more Tesla are on the streets: and the rate of deliveries is increasing rapidly
  • the more a driver uses AP, the more she will use it
  • they will likely change sensors in new MS and MX versions (upgrade hardware)
Tesla gains millions AP-driven miles per day, and that is a *unique* asset.


So, what to do you think will they be doing with that?
  • Just keep Apple at distance?
  • Use it as a competitive advantage against all other EVs
  • provide an Uber-like service in the level 4 future?
  • (unlikely, but possible) Sell the data to competitors at a very high price to sustain their growth?
  • All (or some of) the above?

You did indeed call the AP 2.0 hardware not long before it happened. Good show.
 
The feeling you get with Tesla, in general, is that the tend to get you the best hardware possible,
very often overkill, so that they can add value incrementally, in time, with software.
They did it not only with AP (1, 2, also with OTA updates and fleet learning), but also with the battery.
It's brilliant.

I agree it's brilliant, and decidedly counter-intuitive I believe to most other manufacturers. For most, they will see the hardware as a cost and won't put it in without also having revenue coming in as a result. They will see themselves as selling hardware, and thus won't even think of giving away the hardware to enable future functionality.

I believe Tesla sees themselves as selling a service (transportation) and using software to refine and extend that service over time. The hardware will generate the revenue it needs to, and as a 'bonus', having the hardware on board means Tesla is busy collecting fleet learning miles at a scale nobody else can approach.

Did you notice that Tesla still isn't charging for the LTE / cellular connection for the car? More of that free stuff that generates more value for Tesla than the money out of pocket costs them.
 
  • Like
Reactions: aubreymcfato
I agree it's brilliant, and decidedly counter-intuitive I believe to most other manufacturers. For most, they will see the hardware as a cost and won't put it in without also having revenue coming in as a result. They will see themselves as selling hardware, and thus won't even think of giving away the hardware to enable future functionality.

Well, you know what they say about printer manufacturers. They sell them cheap to make money off the ink.
 
  • Like
Reactions: SBenson
Mod Note:

(not specifically directed toward any recent post; rather, this note is going to ALL active Investor threads).

LAST day of tolerance toward posts that otherwise would have been, and are, unacceptable. One week of election-related wailing and gnashing of teeth and blaming it on others and overall unproductive posts is enough.
 
I was wondering about Tesla miles,
and I made this:
Tesla miles

You're welcome to correct it if I missed something.

The idea is that we have at least 3 classes of miles:
  1. pure electric miles (ie. miles driven on a Tesla)
  2. AP hardware miles (ie. miles driven on a Tesla with AP hardware)
  3. AP miles (ie. miles with AP on)
Of course, each one is a subset of the former.
At the moment, we are at:
  1. ~3250 (and counting)
  2. 1300
  3. ~300
Source: Tesla has now 1.3 billion miles of Autopilot data going into its new self-driving program

The Electric miles (1) counter tells us that we will reach 3500 mln miles just before the end of the year, slightly a better forecast than this:
tesla-miles-chart_large.jpg


Has anyone any other data point?
I'd love to see if we can forecast some milestones with AP (3) and hardware (2) miles.
 
***MOD NOTE***

Okay, fun time is over. I hope all were able to let off all the steam needed, because from now on
we will have only decorum, and that of the highest order.

Besides, these Mod Notes are suffering from a bit of overuse.