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Even if there is a line for Model 3s, a lot of people will keep driving their old ICE for a couple of years while they save for a Model 3 or they will buy a used ICE and wait. The scramble will be on to make compelling EVs, but Tesla will be way ahead.

the EV wave is going to be similar and like the 1970s, the big automakers are going to be stuck with a bunch of cars nobody wants and they will be scrambling to make a compelling EV instead of something that's punishment for being ecological. There will also be a rush on to secure supplies of batteries for all these new EVs and the price of these batteries will be more expensive than Tesla's supply forcing the margins down for EVs from other car makers while Tesla sells the car everyone really wants at high margins.
I believe that GM, Ford, and Honda could all build compelling EV's. A major problem that they face is that in general they don't seem to understand the basic concept. I.e. when they showed the Chevy Bolt a GM engineer said that they understood that they needed to make it a compelling car!
 
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I believe that GM, Ford, and Honda could all build compelling EV's. A major problem that they face is that in general they don't seem to understand the basic concept. I.e. when they showed the Chevy Bolt a GM engineer said that they understood that they needed to make it a compelling car!

When I worked at Boeing, there was a phrase everyone used to describe the internal cultural resistance to change, even if the change made perfect sense: "The Boeing Way". Most large organizations have "The xx Way" that prevents them from going in new directions unless someone comes along to really shake them up, or they are faced with a change or die situation.

Car companies are facing this same problem. There is a lecture on Youtube by an early Tesla exec who is now out of the company. It may have been the guy Musk forced out when the Roadster turned into a fiasco. He made the point that he and the other founders of Tesla had investigated how to do EVs and they concluded it would have to come from outside the car industry because inside the car industry there is too much group think.

The Bolt is probably one of the best designed EVs other than Tesla, but it's still way behind Tesla in many ways. It's obvious they were still thinking about ICEs when they designed it. The layout is more ICE-like than Tesla's designs. I also heard they had problems with the torque of the electric motor in turns, so instead of actually solving the problem, they governed the motor. That shows an institutional problem with EV design. I'm sure there are people on the Bolt team dedicated to making the best car possible, but largely management wants something out there so they can claim they are complying and making EVs too.
 
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There is a lecture on Youtube by an early Tesla exec who is now out of the company. It may have been the guy Musk forced out when the Roadster turned into a fiasco.

The guy giving the lecture is Marc Tarpenning. The guy forced out as CEO by Musk for f'ing up the roadster is Martin Eberhard




The Bolt is probably one of the best designed EVs other than Tesla, but it's still way behind Tesla in many ways. It's obvious they were still thinking about ICEs when they designed it. The layout is more ICE-like than Tesla's designs. I also heard they had problems with the torque of the electric motor in turns, so instead of actually solving the problem, they governed the motor. That shows an institutional problem with EV design. I'm sure there are people on the Bolt team dedicated to making the best car possible, but largely management wants something out there so they can claim they are complying and making EVs too.

GM based the Bolt Platform on the ICE Sonic Platform which is front wheel drive. Providing "torque steer" with high output motors. I have discussed being held hostage by your current customers before. There are many people that insist front wheel drive is superior to rear wheel drive for snow/inclement weather conditions. In ICE vehicles that is true because you have the big ICE over the front wheels pushing the tires down into the ground. With a proper BEV with a skateboard battery pack the weight is more equitably distributed. Add rear engine over the rear axle and modern traction/ yaw control then front wheel drive offers no advantage. Rear wheel drive or rear wheel drive biased all wheel drive eliminates torque steer. But there are certain people that "know" front wheel drive is superior for winter conditions and will not consider a rear wheel drive car.

Many of these same people "know" that front wheel drive offers interior room packaging advantages. They grew up driving Honda Civics,Toyota Corollas, Honda Accords and Toyota Camry. All front wheel drive. So they "know" front wheel drive is superior. But the advantage in a front wheel drive ICE car is that you can put the transmission right up against the engine without a transmission tunnel running to the rear transaxle. Guess what ? BEVs don't have 4,5,6,7,8,9, or 10 speed transmissions only simple small reduction gears. No packaging advantages to front wheel drive BEVs.
 
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The guy giving the lecture is Marc Tarpenning. The guy forced out as CEO by Musk for f'ing up the roadster is Martin Eberhard



I remember the essence of things, but I'm terrible at remembering names. :(

GM based the Bolt Platform on the ICE Sonic Platform which is front wheel drive. Providing "torque steer" with high output motors. I have discussed being held hostage by your current customers before. There are many people that insist front wheel drive is superior to rear wheel drive for snow/inclement weather conditions. In ICE vehicles that is true because you have the big ICE over the front wheels pushing the tires down into the ground. With a proper BEV with a skateboard battery pack the weight is more equitably distributed. Add rear engine over the rear axle and modern traction/ yaw control then front wheel drive offers no advantage. Rear wheel drive or rear wheel drive biased all wheel drive eliminates torque steer. But there are certain people that "know" front wheel drive is superior for winter conditions and will not consider a rear wheel drive car.

Many of these same people "know" that front wheel drive offers interior room packaging advantages. They grew up driving Honda Civics,Toyota Corollas, Honda Accords and Toyota Camry. All front wheel drive. So they "know" front wheel drive is superior. But the advantage in a front wheel drive ICE car is that you can put the transmission right up against the engine without a transmission tunnel running to the rear transaxle. Guess what ? BEVs don't have 4,5,6,7,8,9, or 10 speed transmissions only simple small reduction gears. No packaging advantages to front wheel drive BEVs.

Being held hostage by your current customers is a very apt way of saying it. What really drew me in with Tesla was their design which reinvented the car from the ground up. It still looks like a lot of cars out there, but under the sheet metal it's completely different. As an engineer, I was very impressed to a point I redid my budget for buying the car.

My understanding is that most of the design work was done by LG not GM for the drive train.

Yes, I've read this too. I've also speculated that LG wants to build their own EVs in a few years and they were using GM to pay them to learn how to make cars.
 
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Without reading the article why would trump be concerned?

The Supreme Court will take care of it for him.
Because the case itself, once allowed for Discovery, requires the preservation and exposure of the underlying facts (something the Trump administration specifically deny as existing).

Here's the applicable section from the article:
"
The Trump administration is combating this request in its motion to stay litigation, along with its motion to appeal. The administration charges that the United States could be “irreparably harmed” if the case’s proceedings are not halted pending consideration of its appeal, claiming that “the extraordinary scope of this litigation and the concomitant scope of discovery that Plaintiffs appear to be seeking set this case apart.”
“One of the things that the government argues is that the preservation of documents itself represents a burden on the government,” said Michael Burger, executive director of the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law at Columbia Law School. “What they’re arguing is that they’ll be irreparably injured by having to go through discovery here.”
This, he added, “sends kind of the wrong signal, or at least a very dangerous signal, in terms of what the government’s priorities are or what it’s thinking of doing. It shouldn’t be any kind of burden for the government to preserve documents that are already in existence.”
But given the broad implications of the case for U.S. climate action, especially if the plaintiffs prevail, “it’s not surprising that the Trump administration would want to quash it,” said Gallagher, the Sierra Club legal director.
"

p.s.
Maybe if we get all our children to all file, the Administration would have to rehire and repurpose some of the 46! Tesla fixes demand problems :p
 
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Because the case itself, once allowed for Discovery, requires the preservation and exposure of the underlying facts (something the Trump administration specifically deny as existing).
Are you saying that the trump administration denies the existence of facts (as opposed to alternative facts :D)?
 
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Are you saying that the trump administration denies the existence of facts (as opposed to alternative facts :D)?
Yeah, because in the legal evidence realm that's the way it's fought. Alternative facts don't work well or at all (as it can with the public);
Unfortunately for the Admin position, the only way out is to suppress affirmative causation facts which do in fact now exist.
IOW - The underlying facts that apply to the judgement show affirmatively so it's no longer avoidable by alternative mitigation
[Liken to the legal transition we made from 'prove your cancer is from smoking' to 'smoking is definitely proven to increase your risk of cancer', so if you weren't adaquately protected from that known risk, you were damaged, regardless of whether your cancer was actually caused from smoking or not].
Legally once the case is allowed forward for deposition and discovery, all of that scientific evidence plays against all such cases going forward. This is why the scientific community has begun archiving the data, being fearful of potential purging by the new Administration. Once the case (or other with this breadth of application) is allowed to enter Discovery, it's unlawful to delete any information and any that exists must be preserved.
 
I am surprised that the Washington Post pointed out that "......And in November, the case cleared a major early hurdle when U.S. District Judge Ann Aiken denied motions filed by the Obama administration, as well as the fossil fuel industry, to have the lawsuit dismissed, ordering that it should proceed to trial." Was this an oversight by their editor?

While the last administration was at least willing to say 'climate change' out loud, this effort to suppress has been going on for decades. In fact, we entered in to 5 new military campaigns in the middle east under the last administration, expanding the war effort from 2 countries to 7, dropping more than 26,000 bombs in 2016, and even running out of bombs in Syria in the process.........all in the name of fossil fuel development. Perhaps it was because we were finally hearing the words Climate Change being spoken from DC that we let ourselves be lulled to sleep while the machine marched on. The fact that the message coming from the new administration is SO insane actually gives me hope. While the last administration spoke eloquently about the problems and provided us some comfort that 'someday' this may change.............the troglodyte-like message of the new administration has finally stirred the masses , and the result could be the grassroots efforts for change that have been sorely missing in the past. It will take the public to hold politicians accountable, and that is beginning to happen. I very much want to see the current administration held accountable for its statements and pressured to do the right things by an awaking public............and I don't want to see the last handful of administrations let off the hook in the process so that future generations can do better than us by having all of the facts.
 
Trump Plans Historic Cuts Across Government to Fund Defense

1600x-1.jpg




President Trump Wants to Kill This Clean Energy Program Even Though It Has Bipartisan Support - TIME
President Trump Wants to Kill Clean Energy Program Both Parties Support

Trump’s budget is very bad news for science research - The Verge
Trump’s budget is very bad news for science research
 
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Complete idiocy. He's actually trying to cut the Brownfields program at the EPA, which primarily benefits *property developers*, who depend heavily on it to convert worthless land into valuable land. He has no idea what sort of pushback he's going to get. Probably doesn't even realize what lobby supports that program.

Just gross incompetence.

Also, nobody has EVER successfully cut the Agriculture Department budget significantly. Farm subsidies have an extremely powerful lobby in Congress.
 
Complete idiocy. He's actually trying to cut the Brownfields program at the EPA, which primarily benefits *property developers*, who depend heavily on it to convert worthless land into valuable land. He has no idea what sort of pushback he's going to get. Probably doesn't even realize what lobby supports that program.

Just gross incompetence.
I have a history in Large Scale Planned Land Development and saw that as well. And It's littered with MANY other examples I won't detail here--
but it's across many multiple agencies....
even reaching to decimate basic research to Universities,
completely eliminates many traditionally funded - health, arts etc.
(and many/most directed to the detriment of his very constituent base-- )

I can't believe we're depending on Congress to apply temper and intellectual counter-balance.
I have more words, but lack the energy... I'm in need of mental Solar
 
I can't believe we're depending on Congress to apply temper and intellectual counter-balance.
Depending on congress?!

I listened to a show in which a conservative and a liberal were debating Obama. One thing that they both agreed on was that he did an excellent job when there was a terrorist incident being a calming influence. They both expressed concern about what trump might do. It's something that concerns me.
 
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For your weekend pleasure reading- hilarious:
Opinion | Trump’s budget makes perfect sense and will fix America, and I will tell you why

excerpt
"
This budget will make America a lean, mean fighting machine with bulging, rippling muscles and not an ounce of fat. America has been weak and soft for too long. BUT HOW WILL I SURVIVE ON THIS BUDGET? you may be wondering. I AM A HUMAN CHILD, NOT A COSTLY FIGHTER JET. You may not survive, but that is because you are SOFT and WEAK, something this budget is designed to eliminate.

What are we cutting?

Environmental Protection Agency: We absolutely do not need this. Clean rivers and breathable air are making us SOFT and letting the Chinese and the Russians get the jump on us. We must go back to the America that was great, when the air was full of coal and danger and the way you could tell if the air was breathable was by carrying a canary around with you at all times, perched on your leathery, coal-dust-covered finger. Furthermore, we will cut funding to Superfund cleanup in the EPA because the only thing manlier than clean water is DIRTY water.
"
 
So far this administration is incompetent at just about everything. If implemented, this budget would be a disaster for many. The majority hurt would be in areas Trump is popular.

I agree that agriculture subsidies keep going because of a strong lobby in Washington, but they are so big, the agriculture system in large parts of the US depend on them. Slash them quickly and it will send agriculture into chaos and drop the food supply, raising food prices, reducing imports, which can both hurt American farmers dependent on export income and destabilize some of the poorest parts of the world. The Arab Spring started over the soaring costs of grain in the Arab world due to Russia, the US, and Australia having to cut back exports due to natural disasters in their own countries over a couple of year span.
 
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ICE vs EV Conversion
First, it is not so much the ICE manufacturers that are driving lawlessness (lack of regulations). It is the fossil fuel industry forcing the hands of the ICE industry which has/continues to paint (leaded) themselves into a corner. The last two years have been record years, and sales continue to be in ICE vehicles obtaining better gas milage. So, why revert? Makes no Cents $$$ to make drunk gas guzzlers.
Second, as hinted above and as a specific example, for years now Average Joe has been buying Prius (even before plug-in) and other hybrid cars ~ not just gas hogs ~ driving miss piggy to the market.
The people are who have driven the EPA standards, not politicians.
The Tesla model design from the ground up as opposed to ICE direct conversion and quality are what drive the EV market. I have avoided not buying american cars for 85% of my lifetime (66+ yrs), not because of cost of labor, but due to incompetent management and gas guzzling. It is management's call when it comes to inferior parts, not the labor. It is management's incompetence when it comes to gas guzzling to include fossil fuel industry.
I do not see the auto industry going backwards; I see more VW type tactics ~ fake news like we achieved this, but in reality you get thisss. More White Lies or corruption, and no one being held accountable.
Trust will then be on Tesla's shoulders to build pure anti-fossil fuel and quality products. The middle class, guys like me, or the backbone of what used to be democracy will defy leadership by hate and buy Tesla. Putting my money where my mouth is has long been my behavior, this one is costing me by a long stretch, but then I give a damn about my grandkids (grandpups) and leaving a place better than I found it. Not to mention those falcon wings:)
Kicking down of the doors of the EPA is because fossil fuel/auto industry has screwed themselves by not embracing change. If they were intelligent, they would have reinvested heavily (early) in alternative fuels; but they would rather crush it for the gD dollar and ego.
People that hate regulations, usually are corrupt. As a lieutenant and higher once the law/regulation required us to read a bad guy his or her rights the hatred rose by corrupt individuals, not the bad guys that used to be railroaded into prison. As a newly commissioned officer it was a good stop sign making me think through what it was that I was doing.
Ask yourself questions here as to what is really going on, not just the fake news ~ fake news is usually diverting your attention. Sadly "real" news is either incomplete or leaves out key details.
You have to ask questions, and be able to discern truth from fiction and then form an opinion. Remember that whatever you come up with is only an opinion, just as this is my opinion. While I may have missed a fact or two; or forgot something along the way (what do you want for 66+ years)? And, remember a lot of this point of view is based on what I have actually experienced. My buying a Tesla, Leaf or Bolt is a sour cream pie in the face of Fossil Fuels and the ICE industry. Oh, and takes money away from them too:)
Because it was the people that drove the EPA standards, people will drive the shift from ICE to EV. The middle of the country, they can drink oil. Even the best village idiot knows that oil is not good for human consumption; maybe someday they will wake up ~ I do not use that bank by the way:)
 
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