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Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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- elon is an ass investing TSLA
The overly blue-ness you speak of is a problem with cheap LED lights. Buy quality (High CRI - 90-95+) LED bulbs and the problem is basically non-existent.
A good example of this is early LED street lights vs newer ones. (Then again, we've been conditioned to accept crappy quality outdoor lighting from decades of sodium based fixtures, so early LED units looked amazing in comparison...)
Tesla is using cheap LEDs as backlights on their displays then. Most LED lighting still has too much blue too. The only LEDs I can stand to be around are ones that specifically advertise they got rid of the extra blue.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Maybe not cheap, but not intelligently selected. MIT did a study with fluorescent lights and people were more productive and more comfortable using daylight bulbs. When I replaced the bulbs in an office I worked in with Ott-lites the woman I shared the office with got angry at me. I told her that they helped me and asked her if she would mind trying them. She agreed. When I got another job and removed the bulbs she told me that when I put them in she stopped having headaches.
If the problem is the color of the bulbs (blue), it can definitely be solved with some combination of high CRI and/or color temperature.
For white LEDs to work, they need a very narrow notch filter. They are made by coating a blue LED with a coating that spreads the spectrum of the light. However, there is still a very narrow spectrum spike of blue. That color happens to be one of the primary components of the light of moonlight. Our eyes have moonlight receptors that kick in when exposed to that type of light. If the light is otherwise strong, those receptors get overwhelmed. I think that's what's happening to me with LED lighting. I do have good night vision.
The tech is beginning to come around, you can get glasses with notch filters for that specific spectrum, and a lot of the screen protectors for car displays have that filter in them now. I think it will become a universal thing eventually but it isn't there yet, even in some rather high end items. For example I can't look at my SO's Mac for more than a few minutes without my eyes beginning to feel the strain. They did cut down on the flicker which is another problem with LED backlights, but they didn't deal with the blue.
Materials Sourcing-
I've been following this a bit- as it's one of those key long term elements for Tesla.
It's one of those problems that (especially for battery mfg) can get out of hand and needs constant focus (Apple does a good job on this as others do). Looks like Tesla doing a good job as well. I've had a couple of conversations with IR on it and am glad to see they are living up to assurances. Not that slips won't occur - it's a difficult issue;
I believe Elon's goal to directly source to the manufacturing as vertically as possible contributes to their ability to apply a focus on this.
Anyway electrek has a good summary of their recent SEC filing--
Keep up the good work Team Tesla ...
Tesla gives an update on its strategy to avoid conflict minerals as pressure mounts on battery makers
I've been following this a bit- as it's one of those key long term elements for Tesla.
It's one of those problems that (especially for battery mfg) can get out of hand and needs constant focus (Apple does a good job on this as others do). Looks like Tesla doing a good job as well. I've had a couple of conversations with IR on it and am glad to see they are living up to assurances. Not that slips won't occur - it's a difficult issue;
I believe Elon's goal to directly source to the manufacturing as vertically as possible contributes to their ability to apply a focus on this.
Anyway electrek has a good summary of their recent SEC filing--
Keep up the good work Team Tesla ...
Tesla gives an update on its strategy to avoid conflict minerals as pressure mounts on battery makers
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MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Mostly useless, but this is good:
Every major vehicle manufacturer is either producing or eyeing electric or hybrid vehicles. With global warming a reality and the economies of mass production beckoning, it's only a matter of time before price points on electric vehicles drop into the economy zone -- less than $25,000. When that happens, then every car-owning household will want to own one, or least want one for its second or third vehicle.
The vehicle of the future is a component of a clean, integrated energy system, not a stand-along gas guzzler. This is what the market -- and lofty stock price of Tesla -- has embraced. Ford needs to get with that program to survive.
Reciprocity
Active Member
This is already reality with the base Model 3 and people just dont realize it yet. Humor me a bit with this analysis:
If you take a 19,000 car and compare it to a 35,000 Model 3 over a 5 year loan period:
| Cars | Purchase Price | Residual Value (1/3rd) | 10 Year Residual (1/5th) | Model 3 | 35,000 | 11,667(1/3) | 7,000 |
| Generic ICE | 19,000 | 6,333 | 3,800 | ||||
| Difference | 16,000 | 5,333 | 3,200 | Gas Cost (15K M/Y x $2.50 x 30mpg) | ICE | 6,250 | 12,500 |
| Electricity Cost (15K M/Y x 280Wh/M/1000 x 4c/KWh) | EV + Solar | 810 | 1,620 | ||||
| Maintenance (Oil + Brakes + Other | ICE | 1,500 | 3,500 | ||||
| Maintenance (12v) | EV | 150 | 300 | ||||
| Maint. Cost Difference | - | 1,350 | 3,200 | ||||
| Cost Difference | - | -771 (more expensive) | 6,425 (savings) | ||||
| Cost Difference | w/Solar | 1,457 (savings) | 10,880 (savings) |
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Some of these people do, which is why they stood in line last year. ;-)
tesla.com/compare said:
I wonder if there is any relationship of the 'forth version' in this recent communication to the very brief musings of an 'even cheaper gen 4' .
I suppose we can expect that even more automated manufacturing and scale of MY on a 'fifth version' to cause price points to tilt even further.
Reciprocity
Active Member
I of course was not referring to the smart Model 3 reservation holders, that was more directed at the silly analysts who are calling the model 3 an expensive car compared to a Camry, which it really isnt if you dig deeper. Now there is a slight chance that the residual values will not be good for the Model 3, but based on the fact that the EV will last longer, break down less, and will have full FSD hardware onboard to be turned into an automated taxi, I think it will hold its value pretty well.
Julian Cox did a similar analysis comparing the cost of ownership between a Model 3 and a base model Corolla.
This is a very information dense video that lays out the case for the Model 3 revolutionizing the car industry.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Yes, everyone should watch this video. I think a lot of what he talks about you are starting to see come into people analysis of the changes that automated around autonomous + EV and why ice + autonomous isn't really competitive. The combination is what will completely change how people used cars way more then reach individual technology could. The way he communicates his thoughts is also very easy for anyone to understand so it's great for non techy types to watch as well.
And one of his predictions might already be coming true:
Off-Lease Vehicles Are Flooding The Market, Now Might Be The Time To Buy
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Elon's planning to produce a MY every 2.5-5 seconds . So Tesla will probably sell the MY with talon wing doors for less than the M3.
I had the Epiphany that the reason that they haven't talked more about the MY is because they are planning to use falcon wing doors and they want to avoid the potential FUD storm before the M3 launch and ramp.
Reciprocity
Active Member
People can argue until they are blue in the face about the FWD, but one thing is for absolute certain, they are eye catching and they almost act as an advertisement for the car. You get noticed in a MX. People are even renting them over limos for Proms and stuff because the look is so much more exotic and S3XY. I want suicide Lambo doors on my Y, haha.. ok I joke.
Reciprocity
Active Member
One thing I wanted to add to this analysis... I purposely left off the Tax Credit. This makes the model 3 competitive with the cheapest cars on the road over a 10 year period as long as you have solar which is compounded by having multiple Model 3s. Truly astounding.
This is already reality with the base Model 3 and people just dont realize it yet. Humor me a bit with this analysis:
If you take a 19,000 car and compare it to a 35,000 Model 3 over a 5 year loan period:
This is already reality with the base Model 3 and people just dont realize it yet. Humor me a bit with this analysis:
If you take a 19,000 car and compare it to a 35,000 Model 3 over a 5 year loan period:
| Cars | Purchase Price | Residual Value (1/3rd) | 10 Year Residual (1/5th) |
| Model 3 | 35,000 | 11,667(1/3) | 7,000 |
| Generic ICE | 19,000 | 6,333 | 3,800 |
| Difference | 16,000 | 5,333 | 3,200 |
| Gas Cost (15K M/Y x $2.50 x 30mpg) | ICE | 6,250 | 12,500 |
| Electricity Cost (15K M/Y x 280Wh/M/1000 x 15c/KWh) | EV | 3,038 | 6,075 |
| Electricity Cost (15K M/Y x 280Wh/M/1000 x 4c/KWh) | EV + Solar | 810 | 1,620 |
| Maintenance (Oil + Brakes + Other | ICE | 1,500 | 3,500 |
| Maintenance (12v) | EV | 150 | 300 |
| Maint. Cost Difference | - | 1,350 | 3,200 |
| Cost Difference | - | -771 (more expensive) | 6,425 (savings) |
| Cost Difference | w/Solar | 1,457 (savings) | 10,880 (savings) |
direct personal experience
DO NOT open suicide doors to finish closing them at about 45mph as it is "a very bad idea" 1962 lincoln continental
Reciprocity
Active Member
Hah, my dad had a t-bird, I think, with suicide doors. So Cool when the doors open backwards.
Before the Model X hit the market, Elon tweeted about the Model 3 or Y would have falcon wing doors, but I think they are rethinking that now. It's been a reliability nightmare on the X and added quite a bit to the production cost for the car. They are focused on making the Model Y as cheap as possible to produce, which rules out falcon wing doors.
The Model Y probably will not have a third row of seats and falcon wing doors really aren't needed on a car with only two rows until the car is a 2 door car, but I strongly doubt that. My SO is interested in a Model Y if it isn't too weird. At a Tesla event at the new Tesla service/sales center in Portland last night she looked at a Model X on the floor and said, "I hope they don't put those doors on the Model Y!"
She does think falcon wing doors are cool, but doesn't want them on her car. She loves sports cars, but doesn't want one, she just likes looking at them (and occasionally driving one).
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