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Hah, my dad had a t-bird, I think, with suicide doors. So Cool when the doors open backwards.

When a kid we lived on a cotton ranch near Visalia. The owner was renovating the outbuildings for rental. One of the garages involved driving up a ramp into it. We had a black 4 door 1948 Ford sedan with suicide doors in the back. Once when my mother failed to close one tightly as she drove up the ramp it opened and she tore it off. I didn't see it happen but its funny just thinking about it. (She probably laughed too. But my dad didn't.)
 
Yes, everyone should watch this video. I think a lot of what he talks about you are starting to see come into people analysis of the changes that automated around autonomous + EV and why ice + autonomous isn't really competitive. The combination is what will completely change how people used cars way more then reach individual technology could. The way he communicates his thoughts is also very easy for anyone to understand so it's great for non techy types to watch as well.
Going to be interesting to see what happens to demand when people starts buying Tesla's (and other electrics) because they realize how much cheaper they are to own than ice cars. Will be extra interesting if/when gas prices go up, it's no coincidence that tsla has traded in correlation with oil prices.
 
Going to be interesting to see what happens to demand when people starts buying Tesla's (and other electrics) because they realize how much cheaper they are to own than ice cars. Will be extra interesting if/when gas prices go up, it's no coincidence that tsla has traded in correlation with oil prices.

This is a way under reported aspect. The narrative is still that they are very expensive and not that good. The model S/X are very expensive but also very competitive in their markets, S has 40% of the large luxury sedan market for instance. Model 3 is really something new. Even if you remove the tax incentives, the Model 3 in a few years could really span several market segments that starts at a Toyota Corolla and goes all the way to a BMW M3 high performance sedan. It could actually go up M5, but that market will be left to the Model S. It will take a few years because it will take some time to build out capacity and cut costs. Could see the base model 3 with a smaller battery at $25,000 in a couple of years, though I doubt they would do that. At that price it could compete with the cheapest cars in the world as long as you have solar or charge at a Tesla solar powered Supercharger (same price as having solar).

Here is another thought. What if they take all CPO Model 3's and put them on a boat to the third world. Would keep people buying new model 3s and would allow Tesla to service a market that they couldn't hope to otherwise.
 
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Julian Cox compared the 5 year cost of ownership between an $18,000 Toyota Corolla and a $35,000 Model 3. Even assuming a modest used value after 5 years (average depreciation), the Model 3 was a little cheaper than the Corolla. It gets even cheaper if you have solar power.

I think the market for CPO Model 3s will be very robust for some time and if they were shipped to 3rd world countries they would be competing against cheaper new cars from China. The Chinese EV makers are taking the road Hyundai took to get onto the world stage, they are beginning to introduce their cars that wouldn't pass safety tests in developed countries to third world markets. They are only doing so in small numbers right now because the huge demand at home sucks up most of the supply, but that's the route they are taking. They will use these countries as guinea pigs working out the flaws before introducing them to developed countries en masse with all the safety features required in those countries added.

There is also the problem that in the poorest countries, there isn't enough of an electrical grid to support EVs right now. They are getting solar, but just enough to power some lights, a TV, and maybe a refrigerator. In many of these countries the gasoline infrastructure is so poor gasoline is sold in jars or jerry cans by roadside vendors.

There are many developing countries that have enough of an infrastructure like India or Brazil, but these countries also have a growing domestic car manufacturing market.
 
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Julian Cox compared the 5 year cost of ownership between an $18,000 Toyota Corolla and a $35,000 Model 3. Even assuming a modest used value after 5 years (average depreciation), the Model 3 was a little cheaper than the Corolla. It gets even cheaper if you have solar power.

I think the market for CPO Model 3s will be very robust for some time and if they were shipped to 3rd world countries they would be competing against cheaper new cars from China. The Chinese EV makers are taking the road Hyundai took to get onto the world stage, they are beginning to introduce their cars that wouldn't pass safety tests in developed countries to third world markets. They are only doing so in small numbers right now because the huge demand at home sucks up most of the supply, but that's the route they are taking. They will use these countries as guinea pigs working out the flaws before introducing them to developed countries en masse with all the safety features required in those countries added.

There is also the problem that in the poorest countries, there isn't enough of an electrical grid to support EVs right now. They are getting solar, but just enough to power some lights, a TV, and maybe a refrigerator. In many of these countries the gasoline infrastructure is so poor gasoline is sold in jars or jerry cans by roadside vendors.

There are many developing countries that have enough of an infrastructure like India or Brazil, but these countries also have a growing domestic car manufacturing market.

I think for developing countries the main question will be how to develop their infrastructure.

If I had to start from scratch the question in my mind would be what infrastructure would give the best bang for the buck. Currently we have essentially dual infrastructures, an electric grid and a petroleum distribution system.

With EVs (either Tesla or Chinese) a developing country could focus entirely on the grid. And depending on location and sunlight, focus power generation on durable renewables with no need for additional capital for the "fuel".
 
Interesting Tesla looks exactly like Apple pre-iPhone era, says venture capitalist

Without the charts & darts, I've been saying this for some time now. Going one step further Tesla which we all know and supported was the merger with SolarCity at which time I added more Tesla shares as I worked thru the pain. Now where this article falls woefully short is what is beyond the iPhone 7? This is where all the chaff falls away. While the S and X will continue to grow market share, the 3 is seconds away followed by the eTruck, and Model Y. I would not be surprised to see one day a eTiny car just for out and about travel and you are betting on the driverless individual taxi money maker. Should your thought process follow me here, while everything is electric, it is not just a computer that allows you to call or text your wife, the boss. Tesla is going well beyond the iPhone 7:rolleyes:

Yep, a rocky road to travel, but the road is being repaved by Tesla. Does anyone remember rocky road ice cream?:eek:
 
A Super Computer Thinks Tesla's CEO Elon Musk Isn't Much of a Risk Taker

I was initially a bit surprised...but then not really. The risks involved with Mars leave no room for error due to unnecessary, or unevaluated, risk taking; and so $TSLA benefits. This underlying caution is why I believe the secret master plan will materialize.

Anybody who believes EM didn't learn significantly from Model X self-admitted hubris, and invests accordingly, is digging a very deep hole.
 
It's a fun article (entertainment), but with little or no insight into the methodology, what is meant by risk, how it's measured and scored on a scale of 0 to 1, what 1 means and what 0 means, etc.. Well, it's entertainment.

I think by risk 1 means = 100% chance of failure (of the goal), and 0 = 0% chance of failure.
If someone has for mission to shut down the sun, the risk would be very high...
 
A Super Computer Thinks Tesla's CEO Elon Musk Isn't Much of a Risk Taker

I was initially a bit surprised...but then not really. The risks involved with Mars leave no room for error due to unnecessary, or unevaluated, risk taking; and so $TSLA benefits. This underlying caution is why I believe the secret master plan will materialize.

Anybody who believes EM didn't learn significantly from Model X self-admitted hubris, and invests accordingly, is digging a very deep hole.

I can sort of see this. There are some tech leaders who take off in a given direction without knowing for sure the goal is achievable. Elon Musk is willing to do big things, but only after he has proven that the idea is possible within the limits of current technology. He started SpaceX to make better rockets because he figured out where massive cost saving improving on that technology. He didn't set out to build a space elevator
Space elevator - Wikipedia

Which can't quite be done today because we don't quite have the material tech to do it, though we're relatively close. Though a space elevator will make rockets mostly obsolete when we can do it. It will be staggeringly cheaper than rockets.

Another thing Elon has going for him that many other CEOs don't have is he doesn't get ego invested in doing things any particular way. He is always looking to do things the best way possible and if he discovers what he thought was the best way isn't, the old idea is scrapped ASAP in favor of the better way.

When Tesla did the lessons learned on the Model X, Elon was right up front about how they made mistakes and he poured all his energy into figuring out how to correct every one of those problems.

That's where analysts underestimate him and his companies. The vast majority of people double down on what they have been doing in the face of criticism and few people are willing to go back to scratch and start over when they realize they made a mistake, and it's easy to predict their future behavior as a result.

A lot of newer versions of software that has been on the market a while is massive bloatware because they are carrying along a lot of old stuff that sometimes dates back to the 1980s. Cars evolve slowly because car companies are resistant to jettison old tech until new tech has completely proven itself. Hybrids are hyped more because they are less scary a change than a pure EV.

About the only prediction anyone can make about Elon Musk that will be true is he's very unlikely to repeat the same mistake twice.
 
I can sort of see this. There are some tech leaders who take off in a given direction without knowing for sure the goal is achievable. Elon Musk is willing to do big things, but only after he has proven that the idea is possible within the limits of current technology. He started SpaceX to make better rockets because he figured out where massive cost saving improving on that technology. He didn't set out to build a space elevator
Space elevator - Wikipedia

Which can't quite be done today because we don't quite have the material tech to do it, though we're relatively close. Though a space elevator will make rockets mostly obsolete when we can do it. It will be staggeringly cheaper than rockets.
The space railgun (electromagnetic acceleration launch) can be done today (we do have the material tech), but he isn't doing that either.

After doing some math, I figured out he can't finance it. It's another order of magnitude beyond anything he's raised. For starters, you have to buy a mountain, and then the earthmoving, and THEN the gigantic rails of superalloy... also, massive batteries and capacitors to put out that huge jolt of electricity...

(I keep expecting Musk to propose the space railgun someday, since his businesses are busily making all the necessary parts from superalloys to batteries to tunnel digging cheaper and better)

Anyway, Elon will start talking about ideas before they're ready. But he won't put *money* into them until they're not only ready technically, but have decent odds of paying off. Which does make him way less of a risk-taker than a lot of CEOs.

Another thing Elon has going for him that many other CEOs don't have is he doesn't get ego invested in doing things any particular way. He is always looking to do things the best way possible and if he discovers what he thought was the best way isn't, the old idea is scrapped ASAP in favor of the better way.
Yes, and that is particularly impressive and unique.

That's where analysts underestimate him and his companies. The vast majority of people double down on what they have been doing in the face of criticism and few people are willing to go back to scratch and start over when they realize they made a mistake, and it's easy to predict their future behavior as a result.
Yep. This is why I actually hold out hope that one day Tesla will fix the media player and stop introducing regressions in the software. If it were another company, I'd be *sure* they'd never fix it.
 
(I keep expecting Musk to propose the space railgun someday, since his businesses are busily making all the necessary parts from superalloys to batteries to tunnel digging cheaper and better)

For starters, you have to buy a mountain, ...

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;)
 
The space railgun (electromagnetic acceleration launch) can be done today (we do have the material tech), but he isn't doing that either.
After doing some math, I figured out he can't finance it. It's another order of magnitude beyond anything he's raised. For starters, you have to buy a mountain, and then the earthmoving, and THEN the gigantic rails of superalloy... also, massive batteries and capacitors to put out that huge jolt of electricity...
(I keep expecting Musk to propose the space railgun someday, since his businesses are busily making all the necessary parts from superalloys to batteries to tunnel digging cheaper and better).

here is an epiphany, Elon buys a mountain, or the rights to the minerals underneath a mountain (hint hint), brings in the boring machine and the hyperloop.....What is the hyperloop? a vacuum tube transport system! how fast does it go? (how fast is realy really hauling arse). Is the hyperloop maglev? Why surprisingly yes it is, Is it in a vacuum or partial vacuum, is it magnetically and electrically powered? whoops! yes again. Is it Being done in plain sight? aka purloined letter. is the capsule ok in vacuum of hyperloop tunnel or space? whoops, right again.
Could the hyperloop actually be the space rail gun to send a lot of suppiles to the Moon and Mars? or link up into a really big transport? like a GCU?
 
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Saw this one coming a mile away
Growth-Starved Utilities Have Found a New Way of Making Money
"<
Here’s how it works: Some utilities that for years contracted to buy electricity from wind and solar farm owners are now shifting away from these so-called power purchase agreements, or PPAs. They’re instead seeking approval from state regulators to buy the assets outright and recover the costs from customers through rates. While the takeovers are being branded as a cheaper way of securing power, saving ratepayers millions in the end, they also guarantee profits for utilities.

“We keep wondering why utilities are always signing PPAs that pass the cost through to customers,” said Amy Grace, an analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance. “If you put it in your rate base, you can get a guaranteed return on it. There’s a big upside to ownership.”
>"

Growth-Starved Utilities Have Found a New Way of Making Money | Bloomberg New Energy Finance