Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

[dqd88]

If self driving ever becomes real, it can transform the industry faster. They will be easier to regulate (no ICE robotaxis !) and the poor, the young and the elderly may not want to own cars at all. This sinks new ICE car sales and causes a glut n the used car market.

If I may... I think to optimize transportation we have to look at how people drive. We need a type of urban vehicle, a pod let's call it. Seats 1-2. Only needs 70 or so miles of range. For the daily commute. Smaller than a Smart car. That could sell for <$15k and still provide profit since the battery will be very small. Charge at home, charge at work. Jump bikes and scooters are getting popular in the cities. Options now are: Regular car, Bike, Scooter. A pod would fit between car and bike.
Then normal car for long distance driving.

 

[wdolson]

Govts can and should mandate EVs today to the extent that battery production allows. All other cars should be hybrid. That is feasible and would help reduce emissions.

That is being done in parts of Europe and in China. It's going to be a tough sell in parts of the US.

As for commuting vehicles, I think we should be focusing on trying to eliminate commuting as much as possible. A lot of modern office jobs can be done by telecommuting. For those for whom working at home isn't very feasible (lack of space, noisy family, etc.), there is an opportunity for offices for one in the suburbs. Instead of commuting for an hour each way, it's only 5-10 minutes to a place in your town. The extroverts might opt for these too as they would have people to talk to at the coffee bar.

Some of the office spaces in urban centers can be converted to downtown condos for those who want to live in town and have a short commute.

In the US and some other countries we've allowed where people work to get way too distant from where people work. Some people need to be onsite to do their job, but not everyone. If just 20% of those on the freeways every day were working at or closer to home, it would drastically reduce congestion in a lot of cities.

I've telecommuted from Washington state to California since 2010 and other than having to take a haircut because of the trade war, it's been great. The only time I leave home is to get to an appointment or run errands and I always time things to not be out at rush hour.

 

[JRP3]

If I may... I think to optimize transportation we have to look at how people drive. We need a type of urban vehicle, a pod let's call it. Seats 1-2. Only needs 70 or so miles of range. For the daily commute. Smaller than a Smart car. That could sell for <$15k and still provide profit since the battery will be very small. Charge at home, charge at work. Jump bikes and scooters are getting popular in the cities. Options now are: Regular car, Bike, Scooter. A pod would fit between car and bike.
Then normal car for long distance driving.

Tiny vehicles don't sell well.

 

[jerry33]

As for commuting vehicles, I think we should be focusing on trying to eliminate commuting as much as possible. A lot of modern office jobs can be done by telecommuting.

Good luck with that one. Although we knew this was a good solution thirty years ago, almost every upper manager and every executive believes that work from home equals not working (regardless of studies showing the opposite). Many don't even like people in remote offices where they can't see them. (The last company I worked for had a big push to move all the remote workers to just a few offices even though that meant some of them had to move several states over. Of course, many quit rather than move.) Jobs that are telecommuting always pay 30-50% less than jobs where there is an office. And when telecommuting is allowed, the rules are often such that productivity is down by as much as 80%.

 

[jerry33]

Tiny vehicles don't sell well.

In North America. They are very popular in Asia.

 

[copyhacker]

almost every upper manager and every executive believes that work from home equals not working (regardless of studies showing the opposite).

True for now, maybe, but this will change as the older execs retire and the younger ones replace them.

Jobs that are telecommuting always pay 30-50% less than jobs where there is an office.

Do you have a source for this? I don't poll my coworkers, but I haven't found it to be true during 13 years as a telecommuter. In fact, living where cost of living is low and working for a California company means you typically get paid in California dollars. And the smart employers realize that every remote worker means less rent, utilities, and random perks costs.

And when telecommuting is allowed, the rules are often such that productivity is down by as much as 80%.

Having to live by office rules that don't really apply can be a drag on productivity, as I found lately when someone at IT decided no one should need admin access to their laptop. Then it turned out hundreds of developers suddenly couldn't do their jobs and there was no way to reverse the problem without having the laptop be physically plugged in to the network. They're actually having to ship me a whole new laptop. Geniuses.

[edit: snipped some redundant quoteage]

 

[jerry33]

True for now, maybe, but this will change as the older execs retire and the younger ones replace them.

That's what I though thirty years ago.

 

[wdolson]

Tiny vehicles don't sell well.

It depends on the environment. The size of cars varies depending on the cost of fuel, size of roads, and what other people are driving. In Portland you see a lot more small cars than in the suburbs because large cars on the small rabbit warren streets in the residential neighborhoods. Out in the suburbs there are lots of trucks and smaller cars end up fenced in. People drive larger vehicles out of self defense.

Smart cars don't sell very well in the US, but I see more in Portland than here in the burbs.

Where gasoline is expensive, you see more scooters and motorcycles as well as small cars. That's common in developing countries. Outside of North America full sized pickups are rare and vehicles are smaller in general. Tiny cars have more of a market there.

Good luck with that one. Although we knew this was a good solution thirty years ago, almost every upper manager and every executive believes that work from home equals not working (regardless of studies showing the opposite). Many don't even like people in remote offices where they can't see them. (The last company I worked for had a big push to move all the remote workers to just a few offices even though that meant some of them had to move several states over. Of course, many quit rather than move.) Jobs that are telecommuting always pay 30-50% less than jobs where there is an office. And when telecommuting is allowed, the rules are often such that productivity is down by as much as 80%.

I make a decent income telecommuting. Even cut back to 3 1/2 days a week I pay the bills. And I'm quite productive, far more than any office I've ever worked in. For me one of the least productive environments in the world is a cube farm.

It depends on the individual though. Some people like a busy environment, others like it quiet. For those who want a busier environment, office spaces where people can collect to work is a good alternative. The office spaces don't even need to be the same company. My SO mostly works from home but rents a small office in a local office space to meet clients. The office is tiny, but it does the job. She's an attorney/counselor and there is another attorney across the hall, but next door is an accountant, and down the hall is some kind of medical office and upstairs is a financial consultant.

 

[EVNow]

Jobs that are telecommuting always pay 30-50% less than jobs where there is an office. And when telecommuting is allowed, the rules are often such that productivity is down by as much as 80%.

Depends. Most companies now on West coast (tech) allow telecommute. I mostly work with people in 4 or 5 cities, anyway. Makes little difference whether I call from office or home.

For small agile teams in one location, telecommute is problematic.

 

[neroden]

This is the major risk to the company in the long term.

Tesla customer service problems, 99% communications:
(Model X forum)
Non-existent Customer Service
4 day old New Model X - AC failure while on road trip vacation?
Tesla must not want to actually sell their inventory cars
Order cancellation by Tesla
$%&#! Customer service frustration. Don't know what to do.

(Model S forum)
Unable to Get Service for MAJOR problems
New screens now available (check out the end)
Tesla is either extremely incompetent, or extremely dishonest, or both.
Misleading/False Information on my Used Tesla Inventory Purchase
Is getting a Model S really that hard?
cancelled my order
Body Work Parts Delay
Tesla ext. service agreement NIGHTMARE. Hey say driver electronic seat function is a wear & tear
What are my options after paying in-full but failed delivery of used S?
2015 85D CPO Experience - March 2019

(Model 3 Forum)
Tesla online store sucks!
Took Delivery Of My Car 5 Days Ago, Waiting On Paperwork? (louisiana)
What is the process to refuse delivery and get your money back?
Cancellation Refund Check

I keep an eye on this stuff, and I think all investors should. The individual employees at the bottom doing service are all excellent, and those doing delivery are *mostly* good, but the communications is a god-awful mess due to extremely poor management. There are a more and more people who are deliberately buying gasoline cars or buying electric cars which *they acknowledge to be inferior cars to Teslas* because attempting to communicate with Tesla is so maddening.

I myself have to call Tesla to try to schedule some service. After two weeks, they managed to acknowledge my purchase of a used Model S, so that's good. But now I have to try to reach the Rochester service center, which cannot be scheduled online, and so it may be back to the phone tree from hell.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

This is the major risk to the company in the long term.

Tesla customer service problems, 99% communications:
(Model X forum)
Non-existent Customer Service
4 day old New Model X - AC failure while on road trip vacation?
Tesla must not want to actually sell their inventory cars
Order cancellation by Tesla
$%&#! Customer service frustration. Don't know what to do.

(Model S forum)
Unable to Get Service for MAJOR problems
New screens now available (check out the end)
Tesla is either extremely incompetent, or extremely dishonest, or both.
Misleading/False Information on my Used Tesla Inventory Purchase
Is getting a Model S really that hard?
cancelled my order
Body Work Parts Delay
Tesla ext. service agreement NIGHTMARE. Hey say driver electronic seat function is a wear & tear
What are my options after paying in-full but failed delivery of used S?
2015 85D CPO Experience - March 2019

(Model 3 Forum)
Tesla online store sucks!
Took Delivery Of My Car 5 Days Ago, Waiting On Paperwork? (louisiana)
What is the process to refuse delivery and get your money back?
Cancellation Refund Check

I keep an eye on this stuff, and I think all investors should. The individual employees at the bottom doing service are all excellent, and those doing delivery are *mostly* good, but the communications is a god-awful mess due to extremely poor management. There are a more and more people who are deliberately buying gasoline cars or buying electric cars which *they acknowledge to be inferior cars to Teslas* because attempting to communicate with Tesla is so maddening.

I myself have to call Tesla to try to schedule some service. After two weeks, they managed to acknowledge my purchase of a used Model S, so that's good. But now I have to try to reach the Rochester service center, which cannot be scheduled online, and so it may be back to the phone tree from hell.

I agree. I see lots of trouble brewing too. I haven’t been experiencing any problems other than the fear of Version 9. Troubling that I’ve been pondering selling my Tesla for the last couple of weeks to avoid being A victim of Tesla’s growth and lack of customer service experience. I’ll probably end up hanging in there and seeing what happens. Hopefully I’m not kicking myself later.

 

[hcsharp]

There are a more and more people who are deliberately buying gasoline cars or buying electric cars which *they acknowledge to be inferior cars to Teslas* because attempting to communicate with Tesla is so maddening.

Sadly this is true. We have three different friends who were recently planning to purchase Model 3s. Two of them bought gas cars and the third bought an i3 after hearing "my car was x weeks in service" stories, or delivery chaos. All 3 would have converted to sales if it weren't for bad management with comms.

I tried to convince all three of them that the fabulous cars are worth a few miner service issues, but it didn't work. It's sad because I want Tesla to succeed and I know all three of those people would have been better off choosing Tesla.

 

[mongo]

This is the major risk to the company in the long term.

Tesla customer service problems, 99% communications:
(Model X forum)
Non-existent Customer Service
4 day old New Model X - AC failure while on road trip vacation?
Tesla must not want to actually sell their inventory cars
Order cancellation by Tesla
$%&#! Customer service frustration. Don't know what to do.

(Model S forum)
Unable to Get Service for MAJOR problems
New screens now available (check out the end)
Tesla is either extremely incompetent, or extremely dishonest, or both.
Misleading/False Information on my Used Tesla Inventory Purchase
Is getting a Model S really that hard?
cancelled my order
Body Work Parts Delay
Tesla ext. service agreement NIGHTMARE. Hey say driver electronic seat function is a wear & tear
What are my options after paying in-full but failed delivery of used S?
2015 85D CPO Experience - March 2019

(Model 3 Forum)
Tesla online store sucks!
Took Delivery Of My Car 5 Days Ago, Waiting On Paperwork? (louisiana)
What is the process to refuse delivery and get your money back?
Cancellation Refund Check

I keep an eye on this stuff, and I think all investors should. The individual employees at the bottom doing service are all excellent, and those doing delivery are *mostly* good, but the communications is a god-awful mess due to extremely poor management. There are a more and more people who are deliberately buying gasoline cars or buying electric cars which *they acknowledge to be inferior cars to Teslas* because attempting to communicate with Tesla is so maddening.

I myself have to call Tesla to try to schedule some service. After two weeks, they managed to acknowledge my purchase of a used Model S, so that's good. But now I have to try to reach the Rochester service center, which cannot be scheduled online, and so it may be back to the phone tree from hell.

So I spent way more time reading each item and critiquing it (or at least their titles (the order did not get canceled). Then I realized I was being petty and that comms are an issue.
However, I will provide the update from one of the listed items, specifically the X that lost AC:

--UPDATE--

OP here. As planned, kept calling Monday am when shops opened until I spoke with someone. After expressing deep concern and calling back an hour later, I finally spoke to a technician. Pulled logs, and saw nothing specifically wrong with AC. While working on setting up a loaner/tow situation with Boston shot, he decided to take a shot on re-pushing out the newest firmware update 2019.20.4.2.

Thirty minutes later, while I'm sunning on the beach, i get a remote notification that install is finished. I take a deep breath, and turn the climate on LOW from my app.

I watch in near disbelief as the interior cabin temperature displayed on my app drops. 106...104.... 98....96.... and on down to 64. I shout to the wife, "watch the kids," and spring back over the dunes. I was thrilled as I approached the car to hear that noisy compressor doing it's thing.

From human contact with service department to fix: 1 hour and 45 minutes.

I called the technician back--even he was surprised it worked. So surprised that they are doing to continue to monitor things for the next many days and maybe check out in person next week when we are back.

I'm happy it's fixed and hope it stays that way. Impressed that they could fix remotely. Even the wife is pleased. Let's hope it keeps working!

For those of you with a new Raven who just got the update--keep an eye out for this! Could be a buggy thing. Let me know if it happens to you too!

 

[N5329K]

I keep an eye on this stuff, and I think all investors should.

I sure do.
Robin

 

[neroden]

Another example of the problem which is going to KILL TESLA STONE COLD DEAD if they don't get it fixed:

Cameras work but radar doesn't, one day left to return

I tried that - it isn't possible to get through to a human (at least during the two hours I tried) The recordings after pressing "service" kept telling me to use the web and there was no option to talk to a human, same thing when I called the service center directly - only was I was able to talk to service was to call sales and ask to be transferred to service (the phone did give option of dialing an extension, but when I asked sales for it they said they didn't know could only transfer internally).

This is my only concern about the copmany right now. WTF, Tesla. This is beyond unacceptable.

Customer was within minutes of returning the car for a refund when this forum explained that his problem was a known software bug which could be fixed at home.

OMG, Tesla, are you trying to throw away money?!?

 

[wdolson]

Sandy Munro who took apart a couple of Model 3s observed that Tesla was many years ahead of the competition in some areas that are quite difficult, but were blowing it in the easy areas that are old hat throughout the rest of the industry.

 

[Mader Levap]

Most likely reason is that those "easy areas" are considered very low priority by Tesla. Results are, well. Predictable.

 

[Baggy]

I am both a long term investor and a trader. I own a number of shares and will reduce the amount when the price seems to have run too far (or sell a covered call or two) and will buy more when people are pessimistic (or sell a put or two). I won't ever be completely out because I believe in the long run potential but the price swings are just too juicy to not take advantage of.

I bought the stock after I bought the car. Biggest jump in auto tech I have ever seen. That said, I did not buy the stock because of current car sales expectations, it is way over valued for that. I like the autonomous driving idea, I think it is going to change the car industry and I think that Tesla is attacking it the right way to be the first one to mass market it. The key is being first because once three or four people are doing it well, the profit margins will go very low. I like the idea of turning power into an internet grid vs centralized power creation and storage. I like the idea of fast tunnels underground; not Tesla, I know but the ideas are coming from the same place.

I love the companies vision, ability to re-invent and execute. This is a rare company and most of the value is not in what they are currently selling but rather in what they will be selling in 5,10 and 20 years.

 

[neroden]

So, I still think the only thing which can actually kill Tesla is not answering the phone.

But... in things which will *hurt* Tesla if they manage to start answering the phone....

(A) I'm beginning to get worried that Tesla is trying to avoid complying with its warranty obligations, express or implied.
I really hate to say this, but here, look at

(1) This lawsuit, which I really hope is a one-off:
Sudden Loss Of Range With 2019.16.x Software

(2) The thread about Tesla removing range, and being unwilling to tell the truth about the reasons:
Sudden Loss Of Range With 2019.16.x Software
Frankly, customers might cut Tesla more slack if Tesla were being honest, but Tesla is obviously not being honest or forthright, so the talk is all lawsuits. So communications would help.

(3) The threads about Tesla trying to avoid warranty repairs on the yellowing screens (despite losing three arbitration cases):
MCU Yellow Border - Fixed!
Update from Tesla service on screen yellowing

There are others; these are sort of the high points.

It might cost a lot to actually comply with warranty obligations, but the customer ill-will being created is serious. Not as bad as the ill-will from not answering the phone.

(B) I'm seeing pretty much nothing but negative reviews of the process of buying used cars from Tesla, with the biggest problems being

(1) Tesla usually not allowing people to inspect the cars before purchase, and people discovering major problems at delivery
(2) Tesla trying to get people to sign before inspecting
(3) Tesla failing to agree to due bill repairs, or returns, or otherwise evading obligations (obligations which mostly wouldn't exist if the inspection happened before purchase agreement)
(4) Tesla failing to actually provide the registration & title paperwork promptly

(I suppose you could consider these communications problems too)

Tesla seems to make very little money or lose money on the used car business *and* it's generating ill-will. Why are they even in the used car business?

 

[Doggydogworld]

Tesla seems to make very little money or lose money on the used car business *and* it's generating ill-will. Why are they even in the used car business?

They are only in the used Tesla business. They can't let off-lease and trade-in Teslas go to auction, used car dealers lack the know-how and the tech docs needed to resell them. They could do a deal with someone like CarMax, but that's not the way Elon rolls.