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Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Robert.Boston, Feb 24, 2013.

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  1. dqd88

    dqd88 Member

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    If I may... I think to optimize transportation we have to look at how people drive. We need a type of urban vehicle, a pod let's call it. Seats 1-2. Only needs 70 or so miles of range. For the daily commute. Smaller than a Smart car. That could sell for <$15k and still provide profit since the battery will be very small. Charge at home, charge at work. Jump bikes and scooters are getting popular in the cities. Options now are: Regular car, Bike, Scooter. A pod would fit between car and bike.
    Then normal car for long distance driving.
     
  2. wdolson

    wdolson Supporting Member

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    That is being done in parts of Europe and in China. It's going to be a tough sell in parts of the US.

    As for commuting vehicles, I think we should be focusing on trying to eliminate commuting as much as possible. A lot of modern office jobs can be done by telecommuting. For those for whom working at home isn't very feasible (lack of space, noisy family, etc.), there is an opportunity for offices for one in the suburbs. Instead of commuting for an hour each way, it's only 5-10 minutes to a place in your town. The extroverts might opt for these too as they would have people to talk to at the coffee bar.

    Some of the office spaces in urban centers can be converted to downtown condos for those who want to live in town and have a short commute.

    In the US and some other countries we've allowed where people work to get way too distant from where people work. Some people need to be onsite to do their job, but not everyone. If just 20% of those on the freeways every day were working at or closer to home, it would drastically reduce congestion in a lot of cities.

    I've telecommuted from Washington state to California since 2010 and other than having to take a haircut because of the trade war, it's been great. The only time I leave home is to get to an appointment or run errands and I always time things to not be out at rush hour.
     
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  3. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

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    Tiny vehicles don't sell well.
     
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  4. jerry33

    jerry33 S85 - VIN:P05130 - 3/2/13

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    Good luck with that one. Although we knew this was a good solution thirty years ago, almost every upper manager and every executive believes that work from home equals not working (regardless of studies showing the opposite). Many don't even like people in remote offices where they can't see them. (The last company I worked for had a big push to move all the remote workers to just a few offices even though that meant some of them had to move several states over. Of course, many quit rather than move.) Jobs that are telecommuting always pay 30-50% less than jobs where there is an office. And when telecommuting is allowed, the rules are often such that productivity is down by as much as 80%.
     
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  5. jerry33

    jerry33 S85 - VIN:P05130 - 3/2/13

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    In North America. They are very popular in Asia.
     
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  6. copyhacker

    copyhacker Member

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    True for now, maybe, but this will change as the older execs retire and the younger ones replace them.

    Do you have a source for this? I don't poll my coworkers, but I haven't found it to be true during 13 years as a telecommuter. In fact, living where cost of living is low and working for a California company means you typically get paid in California dollars. And the smart employers realize that every remote worker means less rent, utilities, and random perks costs.

    Having to live by office rules that don't really apply can be a drag on productivity, as I found lately when someone at IT decided no one should need admin access to their laptop. Then it turned out hundreds of developers suddenly couldn't do their jobs and there was no way to reverse the problem without having the laptop be physically plugged in to the network. They're actually having to ship me a whole new laptop. Geniuses.

    [edit: snipped some redundant quoteage]
     
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  7. jerry33

    jerry33 S85 - VIN:P05130 - 3/2/13

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    That's what I though thirty years ago.
     
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  8. wdolson

    wdolson Supporting Member

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    It depends on the environment. The size of cars varies depending on the cost of fuel, size of roads, and what other people are driving. In Portland you see a lot more small cars than in the suburbs because large cars on the small rabbit warren streets in the residential neighborhoods. Out in the suburbs there are lots of trucks and smaller cars end up fenced in. People drive larger vehicles out of self defense.

    Smart cars don't sell very well in the US, but I see more in Portland than here in the burbs.

    Where gasoline is expensive, you see more scooters and motorcycles as well as small cars. That's common in developing countries. Outside of North America full sized pickups are rare and vehicles are smaller in general. Tiny cars have more of a market there.

    I make a decent income telecommuting. Even cut back to 3 1/2 days a week I pay the bills. And I'm quite productive, far more than any office I've ever worked in. For me one of the least productive environments in the world is a cube farm.

    It depends on the individual though. Some people like a busy environment, others like it quiet. For those who want a busier environment, office spaces where people can collect to work is a good alternative. The office spaces don't even need to be the same company. My SO mostly works from home but rents a small office in a local office space to meet clients. The office is tiny, but it does the job. She's an attorney/counselor and there is another attorney across the hall, but next door is an accountant, and down the hall is some kind of medical office and upstairs is a financial consultant.
     
  9. EVNow

    EVNow Well-Known Member

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    Depends. Most companies now on West coast (tech) allow telecommute. I mostly work with people in 4 or 5 cities, anyway. Makes little difference whether I call from office or home.

    For small agile teams in one location, telecommute is problematic.
     
  10. neroden

    neroden Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan

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    This is the major risk to the company in the long term.

    Tesla customer service problems, 99% communications:
    (Model X forum)
    Non-existent Customer Service
    4 day old New Model X - AC failure while on road trip vacation?
    Tesla must not want to actually sell their inventory cars
    Order cancellation by Tesla
    $%&#! Customer service frustration. Don't know what to do.

    (Model S forum)
    Unable to Get Service for MAJOR problems
    New screens now available (check out the end)
    Tesla is either extremely incompetent, or extremely dishonest, or both.
    Misleading/False Information on my Used Tesla Inventory Purchase
    Is getting a Model S really that hard?
    cancelled my order
    Body Work Parts Delay
    Tesla ext. service agreement NIGHTMARE. Hey say driver electronic seat function is a wear & tear
    What are my options after paying in-full but failed delivery of used S?
    2015 85D CPO Experience - March 2019

    (Model 3 Forum)
    Tesla online store sucks!
    Took Delivery Of My Car 5 Days Ago, Waiting On Paperwork? (louisiana)
    What is the process to refuse delivery and get your money back?
    Cancellation Refund Check

    I keep an eye on this stuff, and I think all investors should. The individual employees at the bottom doing service are all excellent, and those doing delivery are *mostly* good, but the communications is a god-awful mess due to extremely poor management. There are a more and more people who are deliberately buying gasoline cars or buying electric cars which *they acknowledge to be inferior cars to Teslas* because attempting to communicate with Tesla is so maddening.

    I myself have to call Tesla to try to schedule some service. After two weeks, they managed to acknowledge my purchase of a used Model S, so that's good. But now I have to try to reach the Rochester service center, which cannot be scheduled online, and so it may be back to the phone tree from hell. :mad:
     
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  11. ⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️

    ⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️ Concerned citizen

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    I agree. I see lots of trouble brewing too. I haven’t been experiencing any problems other than the fear of Version 9. Troubling that I’ve been pondering selling my Tesla for the last couple of weeks to avoid being A victim of Tesla’s growth and lack of customer service experience. I’ll probably end up hanging in there and seeing what happens. Hopefully I’m not kicking myself later.
     
  12. hcsharp

    hcsharp Active Member

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    Sadly this is true. We have three different friends who were recently planning to purchase Model 3s. Two of them bought gas cars and the third bought an i3 after hearing "my car was x weeks in service" stories, or delivery chaos. All 3 would have converted to sales if it weren't for bad management with comms.

    I tried to convince all three of them that the fabulous cars are worth a few miner service issues, but it didn't work. It's sad because I want Tesla to succeed and I know all three of those people would have been better off choosing Tesla.
     
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  13. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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    So I spent way more time reading each item and critiquing it (or at least their titles (the order did not get canceled). Then I realized I was being petty and that comms are an issue.
    However, I will provide the update from one of the listed items, specifically the X that lost AC:
     
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  14. N5329K

    N5329K Active Member

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    I sure do.
    Robin
     
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  15. neroden

    neroden Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan

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    Another example of the problem which is going to KILL TESLA STONE COLD DEAD if they don't get it fixed:

    Cameras work but radar doesn't, one day left to return

    This is my only concern about the copmany right now. WTF, Tesla. This is beyond unacceptable.

    Customer was within minutes of returning the car for a refund when this forum explained that his problem was a known software bug which could be fixed at home.

    OMG, Tesla, are you trying to throw away money?!?
     
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  16. wdolson

    wdolson Supporting Member

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    Sandy Munro who took apart a couple of Model 3s observed that Tesla was many years ahead of the competition in some areas that are quite difficult, but were blowing it in the easy areas that are old hat throughout the rest of the industry.
     
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  17. Mader Levap

    Mader Levap Member

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    Most likely reason is that those "easy areas" are considered very low priority by Tesla. Results are, well. Predictable.
     
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  18. Baggy

    Baggy New Member

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    I am both a long term investor and a trader. I own a number of shares and will reduce the amount when the price seems to have run too far (or sell a covered call or two) and will buy more when people are pessimistic (or sell a put or two). I won't ever be completely out because I believe in the long run potential but the price swings are just too juicy to not take advantage of.

    I bought the stock after I bought the car. Biggest jump in auto tech I have ever seen. That said, I did not buy the stock because of current car sales expectations, it is way over valued for that. I like the autonomous driving idea, I think it is going to change the car industry and I think that Tesla is attacking it the right way to be the first one to mass market it. The key is being first because once three or four people are doing it well, the profit margins will go very low. I like the idea of turning power into an internet grid vs centralized power creation and storage. I like the idea of fast tunnels underground; not Tesla, I know but the ideas are coming from the same place.

    I love the companies vision, ability to re-invent and execute. This is a rare company and most of the value is not in what they are currently selling but rather in what they will be selling in 5,10 and 20 years.
     

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