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Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Robert.Boston, Feb 24, 2013.

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  1. Driver Dave

    Driver Dave Member

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    Congrats on that buy!

    I got in 2016 end of year dip. So it is indeed getting interesting.

    Not as very interesting as 2010-2012 lots, but can't complain at all.

    Long term 10 year hold should be very very very interesting for all involved.
     
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  2. gene

    gene Supporting Member

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    Damn, 2010-2012! Lucky you. My buys were all beginning 2013.
     
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  3. DragonWatch

    DragonWatch Small FootPrint

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    I fell like Silas Manor ~ just sayin':D
     
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  4. heltok

    heltok Member

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    I am trying to find long term projections for 2030. Do you have any or seen any? Like this one by Gali:

    upload_2020-6-16_10-25-39.jpeg
     
  5. petit_bateau

    petit_bateau New Member

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    This is my corresponding projection, based upon figuring the maximum rate at which they could reasonably add industrial (production) capacity. If one simply does annualised growth projections it gets to 30 mln vehicles in 2030 as even then one does not hit the upper-bound constraint of the S-curve. Since financial capital is not a constraint (TSLA are passing through the fully self-financing barrier at present), the real constraints are either the market, or the industrial capacity (which is either set by battery capacity, or assembly capacity. I don't see product design as a constraint, nor charging roll-out etc. So far I do not see other manufacturers becoming a market constraint - this means that TSLA are absolutely correct to accelerate as fast as they absolutely can.

    [​IMG]
     
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  6. jeewee3000

    jeewee3000 Member

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    It will be interesting to compare the two charts above with the Battery Day roadmap regarding battery production. That should give us a more accurate view of the first coming years.

    Regarding the Hyperchange graph, I disagree with how little Cybertruck will sell comparatively. Cybertruck has the potential to equal Model 3 or even Y in sales, since it's more EV for less money (albeit aimed at a different consumer base).

    Either way I agree with the sentiment of both graphs that 1 million cars annual production/deliveries will be taken for granted soon, with the next goals way more lofty as Elon has hinted at immense and continuous growth. Good days (years) lay ahead.
     
  7. EinSV

    EinSV Active Member

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    #5027 EinSV, Jul 6, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 6, 2020
    In May 2016, with the SP at $207, I estimated the 2020 share price at $1205 based on Elon's target of 1 million cars in 2020.

    Tesla is probably ~6-9 months from hitting the 1 million car per year rate, but with performance far exceeding pessimistic market expectations we have now hit and exceeded the $1205 target.

    What will 2025 bring?

    Elon has estimated that revenue growth will likely exceed 50% per year. Assuming 50% annual growth from 2019 and 10% net margins results in revenues of $280B and earnings of $28B in 2025.

    For a company growing at 50% into enormous markets, a P/E of 50-100+ is reasonable.

    Using the low end of that range results in a market cap of $1400B. Assuming ~15% dilution results in a share price of ~$6350.

    IMO this rough estimate is likely to be too low rather than too high, because by 2025:

    • Tesla Network likely will be up and running in a significant number of markets, which should increase margins and P/E
    • P/E 50 is very conservative for a company growing ~50% per year
    • 50% annual growth is extreme by normal standards, but Tesla could grow even faster given its innovation, ability to sprout factories quickly and at low cost, rapidly falling costs, lack of strong competition and other factors
     
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  8. EinSV

    EinSV Active Member

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    #5028 EinSV, Jul 6, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 6, 2020
    My "rather be lucky than good" 2020 estimate (link below) was far too low on Model 3/Y margins, wrong on the 3/Y v S/X mix as Tesla pushed S/X up market, and Tesla is a bit behind schedule in hitting 1 million cars per year. But to some extent the mistakes canceled each other out, Tesla far outperformed market expectations, and here we are.

    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)
     
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  9. Makofoto

    Makofoto Member

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    Tesla just announced that they are already expanding on the planned facilities for the Berlin Giga Factory. Btw. My TSLA profits paid for my new 3 in less than 6 months. :)
     
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  10. Doggydogworld

    Doggydogworld Active Member

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    Your 2020 estimates vs. (probable) reality:
    S/X - 180k ("Actual likely to be 200-250k") vs..... 50k
    3/Y - 800k vs 450k
    Rdstr - 20k vs 0k
    Tesla Energy Storage - 3b revenue vs 1b Profit - 7b vs 0.5b
    Shares out - 164m vs 200m

    Share price - 1205 vs 1400 (so far)

    Tesla massively under-performed your conservative estimates and raised much more money to do it. But share price exceeds your target! Hope you send Chairman Powell a nice Christmas present :)
     
  11. EinSV

    EinSV Active Member

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    I look at it differently. Tesla Model 3 margins have massively outperformed my 2016 estimate of 15%, and all indications are Model Y margins will be even better. Given 3/Y volumes this fundamentally changes the financial picture of the company and its future prospects. It also makes it easier to see how Tesla can make a substantial profit on lower-priced, even higher volume vehicles like the car being designed in China and the potential European-designed hatchback Elon discussed recently.

    Tesla appears to be about 6-9 months behind schedule on the 2020 target of 1 million vehicles (up from 500K), which is not significant in the grand scheme of things, especially since in the meantime Tesla has proven to be light years ahead of the competition, which continues to stumble.

    The market appears to be finally recognizing that EVs are the future of the automotive industry and that Tesla has a massive growth runway as well as strong and rapidly improving financials, which justifies a richer valuation. As Tesla continues its relentless, explosive growth over the next 5 years, more and more market players will catch on, and want a piece of the action.

    And once Tesla Network is up and running, all bets are off ....
     
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