Insightful article, my hunch is that we're going to hear more along these lines (as mentioned in other threads) during Elon's big announcement in a few days... I'm long-term on TSLA the more I read about it's non-traditional, unique approach to the stale, antiquated automotive business. Clearly, it's ahead-of-the-game.
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Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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- elon is an ass investing TSLA
Insightful article, my hunch is that we're going to hear more along these lines (as mentioned in other threads) during Elon's big announcement in a few days... I'm long-term on TSLA the more I read about it's non-traditional, unique approach to the stale, antiquated automotive business. Clearly, it's ahead-of-the-game.
Well, it just got too pricey for me. (YMMV.)
The sales, revenues, and margins came in just about where I was expecting them to, and I believe my long-run multiple is roughly correct. Which means the stock price is now above what I consider a good price.
Sigh. Gotta have discipline -- at least I snatched up some shares while it was cheap. Nice little retirement-account nest egg.
The sales, revenues, and margins came in just about where I was expecting them to, and I believe my long-run multiple is roughly correct. Which means the stock price is now above what I consider a good price.
Sigh. Gotta have discipline -- at least I snatched up some shares while it was cheap. Nice little retirement-account nest egg.
wOW. You must be psychic or have a time machine. Can you point me to report by tesla of actual margin or revenue numbers. Do you have costs too? As far as I am aware report will be early may. How far in future does your psychic reach go?
Citizen-T
Active Member
I'm also curious how you were able to already factor in the change in margin that dropping the 40kwh pack is going to have. Or the new options like the Performance Plus option.
Great thread, RobertB.
As with this post and poster JRP3:
- my greatest concern for the long-term of TM is how well Musk and his company can anticipate changes in battery technology. The storage and useful release of electrons remains at present ridiculously close to the days of voltaic piles and Leyden jars and, as 'wowed' as we can be from the perspective of 2013 at packing 85 useful kilowatt-hours under 7 butts, if and when technology has improved so that that is a risibly minuscule number, how will Tesla be faring?
I agree with neroden and hcsharp that TM likely will fare better in the long run if it sticks to the margins of the auto industry - ie, the luxury performance sector - rather than attempting to take on Toyota, Ford and the like. The analogy is not perfect, but it is instructive to examine the PV panel industry and see how its members have fared: as solar electric production became more widespread, these utterly indistinguishable, yet moderately high-tech products became market commodities which could be differentiated by one and only one factor, price, and thus the downward spiral of their price has squeezed and squeezed each producer to the lowest conceivable margins. Great for the consumer; wretched for the manufacturer.
As I have posted elsewhere, I am viewing my $95k investment in Tesla as an emotional investment. That, of course, is in the auto, not in TSLA shares. I never purchase shares for emotional reasons! I search for long-term fundamental reasons to invest in TSLA and, quite frankly, come up.....short.
As with this post and poster JRP3:
- my greatest concern for the long-term of TM is how well Musk and his company can anticipate changes in battery technology. The storage and useful release of electrons remains at present ridiculously close to the days of voltaic piles and Leyden jars and, as 'wowed' as we can be from the perspective of 2013 at packing 85 useful kilowatt-hours under 7 butts, if and when technology has improved so that that is a risibly minuscule number, how will Tesla be faring?
I agree with neroden and hcsharp that TM likely will fare better in the long run if it sticks to the margins of the auto industry - ie, the luxury performance sector - rather than attempting to take on Toyota, Ford and the like. The analogy is not perfect, but it is instructive to examine the PV panel industry and see how its members have fared: as solar electric production became more widespread, these utterly indistinguishable, yet moderately high-tech products became market commodities which could be differentiated by one and only one factor, price, and thus the downward spiral of their price has squeezed and squeezed each producer to the lowest conceivable margins. Great for the consumer; wretched for the manufacturer.
As I have posted elsewhere, I am viewing my $95k investment in Tesla as an emotional investment. That, of course, is in the auto, not in TSLA shares. I never purchase shares for emotional reasons! I search for long-term fundamental reasons to invest in TSLA and, quite frankly, come up.....short.
My friends already have a ridiculously good set of magnetic battery designs, with roughly 100 times the energy density of anything on the market, so that it should cost roughly 1/10 the cost per kilowatt of the current stuff. It's been several years now and we haven't managed to get it commercialized. It will be eventually, one hopes.
Oh, but that doesn't mean Tesla will be out of the game! I suppose if someone else gets exclusive rights, but we have no interest in exclusive rights, because we've seen them used to lock up and sit on products (remember the NiMH patents, guys?), and we want to see this widely used.
But the key thing here is that none of the other carmakers have bothered to design an electric car. They're all stuffing an electric motor into a car *shaped* like a gasoline car, and trying to make it *act* like a gasoline car. This gives bad handling, bad weight distribution, bad ergonomics, bad HVAC, etc. Now, any one of those carmakers could, at any time, design an electric car from the ground up. But with the possible exception of Nissan, *they won't*. Corporate culture prevents it. So much so that two of the carmakers are basically buying their electric car tech from Tesla (Mercedes and Toyota).
So when the super-battery becomes widely available, most carmakers will design something which feels like a home conversion, while Tesla will simply design a new battery pack, pop it into the Model S, cut the price by $20,000, and produce a highly attractive car. Ping, Tesla is way ahead.
As I said, a reputation for bad customer service could destroy that advantage.
I basically agree -- unless the "big boys" continue to screw up for a long time. I think Tesla is going to follow its original strategy. They'll conquer each segment of the market from the top down, not moving down until they're done with that segment. So I think they'll definitely get into the $60,000 car market over the next several years. And then eventually the $50,000 car market. By the time Tesla starts seriously considering putting out $40,000 cars, it's possible the "big boys" will have gotten their act together and taken that market segment and those below it (which I expect to be shrinking market segments anyway).
I have not been pricing any "Gen 3" sales into my personal stock value model, just predicted Model S and X sales. There was a period when the stock was actually reasonably priced considering only Model S and Model X, but it's pretty high-flying now.
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Oh, I just read the press releases, which were admittedly vague. I'm not trying to get real accurate here.
Norbert
TSLA will win
The chances of a successful Gen III have certainly increased in terms of proven facts: continuous Model S production at target levels with profitability. Whatever you think the chances are, it has come a lot closer to reality.
[moderator's note: discussions about @neroden's magnetic battery tech were moved to Magnetic Batteries ]
jeff_adams
Member
I have to say, this is one of the most optimistic projections I've ever seen with Tesla stock. Interesting...
Will Tesla Shorts Get Squeezed to $200?
Will Tesla Shorts Get Squeezed to $200?
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
I'm hoping that article is right and it gets to $200 (or that Tesla does even better!). With the amount I own in TSLA right now I should have enough money to buy a almost fully loaded Model X at the 5 year point they mention in the article. The 5 year point is important because I plan to have 3 kids around that point give or take a year or two and having a Model X would be handy (to say the least)! The only bad part is the plan would be for my wife to drive it. Here's for hoping for more than $200 in 5 years so I can get myself a Gen III or a model S
Until then I'll keep driving my Prius C and my wife her Hyundai Sonata Hybrid (I make less than 6 figures).
I'm hoping that article is right and it gets to $200 (or that Tesla does even better!). With the amount I own in TSLA right now I should have enough money to buy a almost fully loaded Model X at the 5 year point they mention in the article. The 5 year point is important because I plan to have 3 kids around that point give or take a year or two and having a Model X would be handy (to say the least)! The only bad part is the plan would be for my wife to drive it. Here's for hoping for more than $200 in 5 years so I can get myself a Gen III or a model S
Until then I'll keep driving my Prius C and my wife her Hyundai Sonata Hybrid (I make less than 6 figures).
I dont disagree with the presentation and certain wish it would be true however its a very sloppy analysis. It just re-iterates all the good things about TSLA that everyone knows but goes on to make a very specific claim and a very specific price ($100 in 18 months and $200 in 60 months). I have no idea on what basis they are making such a specific prediction. Its one thing to say that all the ingredients for a short squeeze are there and another completely to claim that such a squeeze will result in the stock being $x in y time period.
In fact, I'll go a bit further. It's largely a stock hype. I've seen good fundamental analysis showing how TSLA could cover $500 or more in 5 years, but this presentation doesn't do that. Further they seem to count on short squeezing having permanent effect on the long term stock. No to that. And they make inappropriate correlations to Apple and Google both in a completely different scalability and barrier to entry field. There are appropriate branding comparisons and others to Apple that make sense, but not the others.
Benz
Active Member
ModelS8794
Member
I found it rather long on hopes and dreams but short on critical thinking or justification for his quite hyperbolic claims. His description of the short thesis is a straw man (Really? Palin and "the next Solyndra" comprises the short case?) and his justifications for his long case are kinda circular. Best example: Tesla will grow a dominant market share, because iPhone did, and Tesla is cool like the iPhone. As further justification, he quoted HIMSELF (or maybe it's his boss) saying Tesla would have a dominant market share just like Google does because... well I guess just because he says so.
I am very bullish on Tesla, but this presentation doesn't add any meat to the argument IMO.
Today, it seems that this same slide presentation just "hit the mainstream" as a result of this article published this afternoon in Business Insider:
PRESENTATION: Why Tesla's The Next Apple - Business Insider
Once again, TMC is ahead of the curve. I agree there isn't much new in it or (for that matter) additional metrics or data that would merit such enthusiasm, but, for what it's worth -- it seems to have some traction. And, I'm happy to see TSLA continue to skyrocket. I know many disagree, but, I'm hanging onto it for the longterm.
PRESENTATION: Why Tesla's The Next Apple - Business Insider
Once again, TMC is ahead of the curve. I agree there isn't much new in it or (for that matter) additional metrics or data that would merit such enthusiasm, but, for what it's worth -- it seems to have some traction. And, I'm happy to see TSLA continue to skyrocket. I know many disagree, but, I'm hanging onto it for the longterm.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Not sure if this is the proper thread, but none the less an interesting bit of information:
The Norwegian state invests profits mainly from oil and the secondary profits of those investments in to several funds, the largets being what is known as "the Oil fund" valued at >4,2 billion NOK (that's norwegian billions, not US billions - an "international" billion is what americans would call a "trillion") - hence the fund is worth somewhere around 720 billion USD (american billions). Of this around 60% is in the form of equities/stock. At the end of 2012 all the holdings are made public and it turns out that this fund, hence in effect all the citizens of Norway, own 0.44% of TSLA, the equivalent of 500,000 TSLA stock which in turns ammounts to roughly 1 TSLA stock per 10 inhabitants.
(The Oil fund currenly holds exactly 0 AXPW stock :tongue: )
The Norwegian state invests profits mainly from oil and the secondary profits of those investments in to several funds, the largets being what is known as "the Oil fund" valued at >4,2 billion NOK (that's norwegian billions, not US billions - an "international" billion is what americans would call a "trillion") - hence the fund is worth somewhere around 720 billion USD (american billions). Of this around 60% is in the form of equities/stock. At the end of 2012 all the holdings are made public and it turns out that this fund, hence in effect all the citizens of Norway, own 0.44% of TSLA, the equivalent of 500,000 TSLA stock which in turns ammounts to roughly 1 TSLA stock per 10 inhabitants.
(The Oil fund currenly holds exactly 0 AXPW stock :tongue: )
Clprenz
Member
Here is my in depth analysis through 2016
Let me know if I have any errors
Average price on Model S is 92,000
4,750 Q1 - 432,250,000 , 69,160,000
6,500 Q2 - 601,250,000 , 120,000,000
7,540 Q3 - 701,220,000 , 175,305,000
8,450 Q4 - 785,850,000 , 220,038,000
27,240 2013 - 2,520,570,000 , 584,503,000
2014
41,600 Model S - 3,827,200,000 , 1,071,616,000
3,250 Model X - 322,000,000 (1000 at 106k 2250 at 96k, 15% profit) 48,300,000
2015
41,600 Model S- 3,827,200,000 , 1,071,616,000 28% profit margin
20,800 Model X- 1,996,800,000 , 559,104,000 28% profit margin
83,200 Gen 3 - 3,328,000,000 , 832,000,000 (25% margin, 40,000 each, see below)
2016
41,600 Model S- 3,827,200,000 , 1,071,616,000 28% profit margin
20,800 Model X- 1,996,800,000 , 559,104,000 28% profit margin
375,000 Gen 3 - 15,750,000,000 , 4,410,000,000 28% profit margin
Vehicle emission credits:
Q1- 9,500 , 45,125,000
Q2- 7,000 , 45,500,000
Q3- 5,000 , 37,700,000
Q4- 5,000 , 42,250,000
2013- 170,575,000
no emission credits expected in 2014+
Capital Expenditures in thousands
2013
Q1- 110,000 , 45,000 in Sales & Marketing , 65,000 in R&D
Q2- 118,000 , 49,000 in Sales & Marketing , 69,000 in R&D
Q3- 128,000 , 54,000 In Sales & Marketing , 74,000 in R&D
Q4- 138,000 , 59,000 In Sales & Marketing , 79,000 in R&D
2014
Q1- 150,000 , 65,000 In Sales & Marketing , 85,000 in R&D Model S Ramp up
Q2- 156,000 , 68,000 In Sales & Marketing , 88,000 in R&D
Q3- 162,000 , 71,000 In Sales & Marketing , 91,000 in R&D
Q4- 171,000 , 74,000 In Sales & Marketing , 97,000 in R&D Model X ramp up
2015- 715 million in expenses 12% gain
2016- 800 million in expenses 12% gain
2013
Q1 EPS - .035 115 million shares
Q2 EPS - .40 118 million shares
Q3 EPS - .69 122 million shares
Q4 EPS - .98 126 million shares
2013 EPS - 2.105
2013 P/E of 40 , share price 84.2
2014
135 million shares
Profit- 488,916,000
EPS - 3.62
P/E of 35 , share price of 126.7
2015
150 million shares (IPO of 10 million shares, generate about 1,267,000,000)
Profit- 1,747,720,000
EPS - 11.65
P/E of 30 , share price of 349.5
2016
155 million shares
Profit- 5,240,720,000
EPS - 33.81
P/E of 25 , share price of 845.27
Let me know if I have any errors
Average price on Model S is 92,000
4,750 Q1 - 432,250,000 , 69,160,000
6,500 Q2 - 601,250,000 , 120,000,000
7,540 Q3 - 701,220,000 , 175,305,000
8,450 Q4 - 785,850,000 , 220,038,000
27,240 2013 - 2,520,570,000 , 584,503,000
2014
41,600 Model S - 3,827,200,000 , 1,071,616,000
3,250 Model X - 322,000,000 (1000 at 106k 2250 at 96k, 15% profit) 48,300,000
2015
41,600 Model S- 3,827,200,000 , 1,071,616,000 28% profit margin
20,800 Model X- 1,996,800,000 , 559,104,000 28% profit margin
83,200 Gen 3 - 3,328,000,000 , 832,000,000 (25% margin, 40,000 each, see below)
2016
41,600 Model S- 3,827,200,000 , 1,071,616,000 28% profit margin
20,800 Model X- 1,996,800,000 , 559,104,000 28% profit margin
375,000 Gen 3 - 15,750,000,000 , 4,410,000,000 28% profit margin
Vehicle emission credits:
Q1- 9,500 , 45,125,000
Q2- 7,000 , 45,500,000
Q3- 5,000 , 37,700,000
Q4- 5,000 , 42,250,000
2013- 170,575,000
no emission credits expected in 2014+
Capital Expenditures in thousands
2013
Q1- 110,000 , 45,000 in Sales & Marketing , 65,000 in R&D
Q2- 118,000 , 49,000 in Sales & Marketing , 69,000 in R&D
Q3- 128,000 , 54,000 In Sales & Marketing , 74,000 in R&D
Q4- 138,000 , 59,000 In Sales & Marketing , 79,000 in R&D
2014
Q1- 150,000 , 65,000 In Sales & Marketing , 85,000 in R&D Model S Ramp up
Q2- 156,000 , 68,000 In Sales & Marketing , 88,000 in R&D
Q3- 162,000 , 71,000 In Sales & Marketing , 91,000 in R&D
Q4- 171,000 , 74,000 In Sales & Marketing , 97,000 in R&D Model X ramp up
2015- 715 million in expenses 12% gain
2016- 800 million in expenses 12% gain
2013
Q1 EPS - .035 115 million shares
Q2 EPS - .40 118 million shares
Q3 EPS - .69 122 million shares
Q4 EPS - .98 126 million shares
2013 EPS - 2.105
2013 P/E of 40 , share price 84.2
2014
135 million shares
Profit- 488,916,000
EPS - 3.62
P/E of 35 , share price of 126.7
2015
150 million shares (IPO of 10 million shares, generate about 1,267,000,000)
Profit- 1,747,720,000
EPS - 11.65
P/E of 30 , share price of 349.5
2016
155 million shares
Profit- 5,240,720,000
EPS - 33.81
P/E of 25 , share price of 845.27
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Yuri_G
Member
Good analysis! In January this year at NAIAS, Elon announced that Gen III was 3-4 years away. He reiterated that statement in March. So Gen III should come out between January 2016 and March 2017 (not in 2015). Personally I expect that Gen III will be delayed further between now and then, and will come out in summer 2017 at the earliest.
Also, I agree with Yuri that your analysis is quite optimistic. 41,000 Model S in 2014 is, as I'm sure you know, greater than Tesla has predicted.
Also, I agree with Yuri that your analysis is quite optimistic. 41,000 Model S in 2014 is, as I'm sure you know, greater than Tesla has predicted.
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