Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

[gg_got_a_tesla]

Surprising that Cramer thinks that there's still a 9-month wait on the car (which is his reason for not ordering it apparently).

 

[SCW-Greg]

Surprising that Cramer thinks that there's still a 9-month wait on the car (which is his reason for not ordering it apparently).

OT, but we need a thread for "deal breakers" we've encountered.
I think the list would be hilarious, in hindsight, for a lot of people.

 

[Enadler]

Surprising that Cramer thinks that there's still a 9-month wait on the car (which is his reason for not ordering it apparently).

I guess you didn't watch the entire piece. He said he didn't reserve originally because there was a 9 month wait. Now he says it is down to 3 months and some models sooner than that. This ties pretty closely to the current reality.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Surprising that Cramer thinks that there's still a 9-month wait on the car (which is his reason for not ordering it apparently).

He does not any more. He correctly stated in the interview that it is currently 3 months, 2 months for some models.

 

[Citizen-T]

This supports the theory that the main reason people weren't reserving is because of the long wait time.

Sent from my XT912 using Tapatalk 2

 

[bollar]

This supports the theory that the main reason people weren't reserving is because of the long wait time.

I'm pretty sure that if there were a red or blue P85+ available to test drive and buy today, I'd already own one.

 

[imherkimer]

What other company has this dynamic: Charlie is looking to buy a car. Likes the Model S but thinks its too expensive and doesn't want to be a really early adopter since he doesn't have the reserves to handle any kind of major issues with the car. Charlie invests his car purchase budget in Tesla shares, thinking "one day this will earn me enough to buy a Tesla," and resolves to hang tight with his old car just a little longer. Two months later! Charliie's stock in Tesla has brought the price of a Model S to near that of a new Camry! And Consumer Reports says Model S is the best car ever! So Charlie orders his Model S right away!

How many companies have shareholders who use their capital gains to buy the companies premium product in this way?
(See the number of folks on these forums already reserving another S, and/or an X. Even some folks pleading with Tesla to do a page for the GenIII so they can put down a reservation already!)

It makes me laugh knowing how many Model S's have now been ordered by virtue of the shorts!
Tesla short-sellers have really helped to advance the adoption of the cars, the company, its fans, and the EV revolution!
Have at it, shorts! The advances in TSLA stock have pushed up demand by increasing customer purchasing power for the Model S!

 

[copyhacker]

Charlie invests his car purchase budget in Tesla shares, thinking "one day this will earn me enough to buy a Tesla,"

I did just this with Apple stock several years ago. It'll be a long time before my measly 100 shares of TSLA can buy me a car, but I'm well on my way to a nice down payment.

 

[ModelS8794]

I'm pretty sure that if there were a red or blue P85+ available to test drive and buy today, I'd already own one.

The King of Prussia store had a red P85+ on the floor at the opening last night. Gotta be for sale, right?

 

[neroden]

From running my very simple model, I've come to conclude that the core predictor of Tesla's long-term value is... how many cars it sells per year.

I have no idea how to predict that! It depends on trends in terms of car sales in general, and the general level of disposable income among the public, among other things.

I also think that the primary *risk factor* for Tesla is that their internal communications to support customer communications is currently appalling. That could really suppress car sales, and substantially. Several people at this forum alone have talked about considering cancelling their reservations just because of the mess Tesla is making of the communications. If Tesla fixes that, then I anticipate they'll take over the entire market for cars among people who can afford their cars (but I'm not sure how large that market is).

This is not investment advice, I am not your investment advisor. But I thought others might be interested in the way I am viewing the company, which seems to be quite different from the way other people look at it.

- - - Updated - - -

I believe that Tesla needs one full-time specialist (preferably trained as a paralegal) for each state's sales, just to know the laws relating to title, registration, insurance, financing, sales, warranty, etc. in that state, to provide instant, on-call expertise to any "delivery specialist" faced with anything odd. States with very few reservations could perhaps be handled by one person handling two or three states, but most states would need a dedicated person. Perhaps the upcoming capital raise will give Tesla enough money to actually employ the 50 people required.

 

[bollar]

The King of Prussia store had a red P85+ on the floor at the opening last night. Gotta be for sale, right?

Absolutely! That and just a few Superchargers, so I can get it home to Texas and I'm set.

 

[vgrinshpun]

The King of Prussia store had a red P85+ on the floor at the opening last night. Gotta be for sale, right?

Could you clarify where is the info coming from. I've exchanged e-mails with some guys at the Paramus (NJ) store and they told me that King of Prussia store will not have P85+, just P85. I am trying to test drive P85+ before placing an order.
Thanks!

 

[brianman]

Absolutely! That and just a few Superchargers, so I can get it home to Texas and I'm set.

I bet a well placed call and clear intent (and maybe a deposit) would get that car to Texas (or near) for you, bollar. Can't hurt to ask (though it can hurt to get your hopes up).

 

[ModelS8794]

Could you clarify where is the info coming from. I've exchanged e-mails with some guys at the Paramus (NJ) store and they told me that King of Prussia store will not have P85+, just P85. I am trying to test drive P85+ before placing an order.
Thanks!

I saw it with my own eyes. I cannot say whether it's going to be test driven though... perhaps it just stays in the store for the lookie-loos.

 

[NigelM]

I saw it with my own eyes. I cannot say whether it's going to be test driven though... perhaps it just stays in the store for the lookie-loos.

Might not be a fully functional, real car. But we're getting off topic guys....plenty of threads in the main Model S section discussing specific availability etc.

 

[FredTMC]

Surprising that Cramer thinks that there's still a 9-month wait on the car (which is his reason for not ordering it apparently).

He said the wait is three months or less now depending on the options P85 etc

 

[vgrinshpun]

Tesla Valuation and Production - The Insider's View

During the latest interview with Bloomberg following the re-payment of DOE loan, Elon Musk provided his take on what capital raise means for Tesla's future. During the interview linked below he indicated that roughly $1B raised will be enough to pay the loan and bring Model X to the market. He also indicated that another $1B required for developing Gen III will be generated on the Model S and X sales.

Elon Musk Interview with Bloomberg - I feel pretty good...

The stated timeline for Model S is the end of 2014, and "2016, but no later than 2017" for Gen III (interview with CNN Ali Velshi). Therefore the time to generate $1B in profit on the sales of Model S and X would be at most two years, 2015 and 2016. This means average earnings of $500M per year during the 2015 - 2016 period. This yields $20B cap (at 40x).

In terms of production, assuming average of $600M/year in R&D and SGA, $90,000 ASP, and 25% margin, the average yearly production in 2015/2016 would be ($500M+$600M) / 0.25 / $90,000 = 48,888 cars/year.
The question is what multiplier one should apply to the above numbers given Elon's habit of under promising and overachieving? :wink::smile:

This is kind of in the ball park of the benchmark given in the CEO incentive package (my post on the subject linked below): the market capitalization goal at the completion of the Gen III production vehicle of $27.2B.

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - Page 79

 

[Causalien]

During the latest interview with Bloomberg following the re-payment of DOE loan, Elon Musk provided his take on what capital raise means for Tesla's future. During the interview linked below he indicated that roughly $1B raised will be enough to pay the loan and bring Model X to the market. He also indicated that another $1B required for developing Gen III will be generated on the Model S and X sales.

Elon Musk Interview with Bloomberg - I feel pretty good...

The stated timeline for Model S is the end of 2014, and "2016, but no later than 2017" for Gen III (interview with CNN Ali Velshi). Therefore the time to generate $1B in profit on the sales of Model S and X would be at most two years, 2015 and 2016. This means average earnings of $500M per year during the 2015 - 2016 period. This yields $20B cap (at 40x).

In terms of production, assuming average of $600M/year in R&D and SGA, $90,000 ASP, and 25% margin, the average yearly production in 2015/2016 would be ($500M+$600M) / 0.25 / $90,000 = 48,888 cars/year.
The question is what multiplier one should apply to the above numbers given Elon's habit of under promising and overachieving? :wink::smile:

This is kind of in the ball park of the benchmark given in the CEO incentive package (my post on the subject linked below): the market capitalization goal at the completion of the Gen III production vehicle of $27.2B.

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - Page 79

By the way vgrinshpun, I just realized that you are the one who's been scraping TSLA public disclosures that I use to make my decision on. Thank you for the service. I am sure I can say for others that you have saved us a lot of time.

 

[DonPedro]

By the way vgrinshpun, I just realized that you are the one who's been scraping TSLA public disclosures that I use to make my decision on. Thank you for the service. I am sure I can say for others that you have saved us a lot of time.

I second that emotion. Thank you, vgrinshpun! :biggrin:

 

[kenliles]

By the way vgrinshpun, I just realized that you are the one who's been scraping TSLA public disclosures that I use to make my decision on. Thank you for the service. I am sure I can say for others that you have saved us a lot of time.

yes- that's a good shout-out; I've noticed that as well and made good use of it- thank you vgrinshpun;
On your rough calculation, it sounded to me that Elon was also applying some of the current raise/cash to GENIII and adding the sales profit. So I think your baseline of sales to generate would potentially reduce by as much as half- maybe 30% as a rough guess. I think he's counting on 30,000+/year with current mfg line and coupled with current cash not used for ModX, would be enough to cover GENIII. (I'm modeling decisions based on another cap raise needed for cushion and other frankly)