RobStark
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Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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- elon is an ass investing TSLA
RobStark
Well-Known Member
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RobStark
Well-Known Member
Buddha, Change and Stock Prices
We often lament why doesn’t the stock price mirror the fundamentals of the market and Tesla’s in particular which is based on physics first principles? Usually, in my case, I just say the market is irrational or retreat into the vocabulary of Prigogine, that it is “emergent.” There may be another way to say the same thing and make a point about our perceptions of reality and reality itself. Smug longs like myself are less agitated than others because we bought early, but in amounts like gnat-nuts compared to some bull nuts here. However, even my nerves were tested last week as we moved from almost an 8 percent gain in our portfolio this year to an over ten percent loss from our all-time high reached in January. Worse, the percentage of our portfolio of Bidu and Tsla went from near 60 to 53, explaining the exaggerated change.
Diversion to Bollywood for Enlightenment
I have a friend who frequently comments about statistics, "they are like a bikini, what they reveal is interesting, what they conceal is crucial." The same for words generally. Buddha was always questing for truth and exposing the superficiality of conventional wisdom, much like his contemporary in time, Socrates.
My wife has become enamored of a Bollywood TV series about Buddha called Siddartha. It is fifty episodes long! She's a night owl so I have time for only a few episodes. Whether true to life Buddha or not I learn some good—no—great stuff. Example, last night a take on enlightenment included "when perception is reality." Enlightenment solves the puzzle. Here's another from the realm of art, bearing in mind that words are like bikini, too. Plus, be patient, the real meat of meaning is the extended comment by the models themselves. As Socrates might say, “don’t be fooled by appearances, these models are philosophers too.”
SI Swimsuit models bare all for 'In Her Own Words'
A wish: may your perceptions of positive returns always become reality, bearing in mind their identity is only for the enlightened.
We often lament why doesn’t the stock price mirror the fundamentals of the market and Tesla’s in particular which is based on physics first principles? Usually, in my case, I just say the market is irrational or retreat into the vocabulary of Prigogine, that it is “emergent.” There may be another way to say the same thing and make a point about our perceptions of reality and reality itself. Smug longs like myself are less agitated than others because we bought early, but in amounts like gnat-nuts compared to some bull nuts here. However, even my nerves were tested last week as we moved from almost an 8 percent gain in our portfolio this year to an over ten percent loss from our all-time high reached in January. Worse, the percentage of our portfolio of Bidu and Tsla went from near 60 to 53, explaining the exaggerated change.
Diversion to Bollywood for Enlightenment
I have a friend who frequently comments about statistics, "they are like a bikini, what they reveal is interesting, what they conceal is crucial." The same for words generally. Buddha was always questing for truth and exposing the superficiality of conventional wisdom, much like his contemporary in time, Socrates.
My wife has become enamored of a Bollywood TV series about Buddha called Siddartha. It is fifty episodes long! She's a night owl so I have time for only a few episodes. Whether true to life Buddha or not I learn some good—no—great stuff. Example, last night a take on enlightenment included "when perception is reality." Enlightenment solves the puzzle. Here's another from the realm of art, bearing in mind that words are like bikini, too. Plus, be patient, the real meat of meaning is the extended comment by the models themselves. As Socrates might say, “don’t be fooled by appearances, these models are philosophers too.”
SI Swimsuit models bare all for 'In Her Own Words'
A wish: may your perceptions of positive returns always become reality, bearing in mind their identity is only for the enlightened.
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Ulmo
Active Member
Morality accounting took a turn. Take a look at the hinted handle for relevent threads to see what I mean, and then ... well, you know the rest.
Ulmo
Active Member
The referenced thread didn't start the way I thought it did, but the conclusion is the same. Many other threads by same person paint same picture.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Tesla’s bonds show dark yellow warnings 
:
Source: A Terrible Tuesday for Tesla's Stock, But Watch the Bonds
PS: I have been ridiculed for my signature, but I’m quite confident the TSLA stock story will play out as predicted by around 2020.
:Source: A Terrible Tuesday for Tesla's Stock, But Watch the Bonds
PS: I have been ridiculed for my signature, but I’m quite confident the TSLA stock story will play out as predicted by around 2020.
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Welcome back, @tftf. After being away since Sept, 2017, you returned several minutes ago. I'm sure this has nothing to do with the share price today. 
tftf, you're back!
what happened to the flood of EVs that were supposed to hit the market by now?
what year do you predict Tesla will fall below 50% of global market share of 200+ mile range EVs (excluding Chinese automaker vehicles sold in China)? please offer a direct answer to that question, i.e, state the year you think that will happen.
Welcome back, @tftf. After being away since Sept, 2017, you returned several minutes ago. I'm sure this has nothing to do with the share price today.
I’m not a day-to-day short-term trader.
Wait and see what happens with TSLA till / by around ~ 2020.
This is the year when competitive forces will hit Tesla with full force on a global scale.
I just came here to post the bond opinion piece - more than often bond markets predict long-term outcomes better than stocks or stock futures / options.
Musk’s latest distractions (tunnels, Mars and what not...) and ongoing Model3 ramp problems (I projected both massive ramping / QA issues and the $35k base price an unrealistic carrot on a stick to get more reservations back in 2016) as well as SCTY remains are the latest implosion catalysts.
No focus, massive cash burn, high executive turn-over - and the problems are accelerating as competition gears up for a massive wave of long-range EV launches by 2018-2025.
Just look at the Tesla Z-Score.
See you at the end of 2020.
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By now?
No, this is what I wrote (my April 2017 SA article on TSLA):
“Tesla will encounter direct competition in all EV segments by 2018-2021 for the first time.
By 2020-2025, all major car makers will have launched cars on dedicated EV platforms (bringing down costs further and enable economies of scale with large suppliers, including battery supplies).”
Source:
We are only at the beginning of this as of early 2018 - and Tesla is already under immense financial stress with almost no direct (long-range) EV competitors yet.
Emphasis in quote above mine.
Krugerrand
Meow
Tesla’s bonds show dark yellow warnings
Source: A Terrible Tuesday for Tesla's Stock, But Watch the Bonds
PS: I have been ridiculed for my signature, but I’m quite confident the TSLA stock story will play out as predicted by around 2020.
We’ll be here ‘by around 2020’ when you walk back your comments and move the goalposts, yet again.
Nobody can predict the future but 2020 is my educated bet based on growing competitive pressures*, Tesla’s current debt and balance sheet / financials as well as the general state of the stock market (US bull market in a very, very long cycle since early 2009 is coming to an end one day).
In addition, Tesla and its CEO still have no focus - they keep expanding product lines and Musk is spending time on all sorts of pet projects:
Tunnels, bricks, loops, brain implants, Mars rockets, satellites...and endless list while Model3 buyers wait(ed) for 2-3 years on their cars.
A waste of time and limited resources - especially when the tide turns in a recession / market downturn and access to fresh $ is cut off for Tesla.
In that scenario, 2020 is even optimistic.
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* Tesla will face direct competition on a global scale by ~ 2020: Dozens of long-range EV models will be on sale and 150-350 kW charging networks will be in place.
Krugerrand
Meow
That was quick, already started the walk back. How about ‘by around the time Elon lands on Mars’? Is that a long enough time frame for your prediction?
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Over in the BMW thread you complained that BMW should be given time because it takes a long time to develop a new car. Here you are complaining that people had to wait for their cars. At least Tesla is actually delivering cars to buyers, not just press releases and concept cars.
I would love to see more options for EVs it's just that everyone is dragging their feet. BMW is even hedging their bets by saying that they'll wait until it's "economic" to sell the cars and they think this won't be until 2020 (or maybe later). They're just not willing to make the investments to make it economic.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Right, because there is a lot of crossover between car manufacturing and all those other endeavors. Even with his other interests Musk is still more hands on than most CEO's.
You just listed a number of potential sources for fresh $.
Implying that you only started on that ~"Tesla about to be lost in a wave of competition" mantra in 2017?
That is exceptionally cheeky of you tftf in the face of your extensive, many years long, post history here on TMC repeating that mantra over and over.
here's a nice tftf example from 2/12/14,
"I think BMW, Nissan-Renault and lately also VW Group (Audi...) and unnamed Asian car brands are adding more resources in EVs - this can be seen in hirings and key initiatives over the past months. I think competition will be very intense in 2017-2022 when the next generation of mass-market EVs and PHEVs (around $35k or lower) is launched."
I'm not related to JP, but I'm shorting TSLA...
next generation of EVs arriving from BMW, Nissan-Renault, VW and Asian car brands leading to "very intense" competition starting in 2017?
Care to refer to Elon as full of promises he never delivers on?
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