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Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

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tftf, you're back!

what happened to the flood of EVs that were supposed to hit the market by now?

what year do you predict Tesla will fall below 50% of global market share of 200+ mile range EVs (excluding Chinese automaker vehicles sold in China)? please offer a direct answer to that question, i.e, state the year you think that will happen.


tftf, I noticed that not only did you not answer my direct question, you snipped it out when you replied to my comment (despite said question having been the only bolded part of my response to you).

I'll present the question to you again- this time bolded, in slightly larger font than the rest of this comment, and underlined... please offer a direct answer.

what year do you predict Tesla will fall below 50% of global market share of 200+ mile range EVs (excluding Chinese automaker vehicles sold in China)? please offer a direct answer to that question, i.e, state the year you think that will happen.
 
A couple of things here, saying any stock going down is a sign the company is in trouble when the whole stock market is going down is a bit ridiculous. If Tesla's stock was tanking while the rest of the market was strong, or even just holding steady might be an indication of something.

As for the claim that the market will be flooded with many 200+ mile EVs between 2018 and 2025, look at battery production capacity. It is increasing, but not at the volume necessary for anybody to out produce Tesla. There are new battery factories being built and others are expanding, but very little of that planned capacity will be online before 2020, and by 2025 when those factories are at full capacity, Tesla will likely be making 2-3X the total capacity built between 2017 and 2025 by their competitors.

If demand for EVs suddenly soars, the battery companies (probably funded by spooked automakers) can go on a crash program to build more factories, but I doubt a crash program capacity will equal Tesla's capacity by then.

There will be more long range EVs on the market soon, but battery supply is going to limit production. Demand for non-Tesla EVs so far has been tepid in most markets. A few small countries that have been pushing for EVs like Norway have seen a huge increase in EVs on the road, but in most countries total EV sales are only a small part of the total.
 
So what is a credible estimate for non Tesla EVs in 2018?

Jaguar- 5,000
Bolt - 20,000
Leaf - 35,000
VW - 5,000

I assume you mean global numbers because that is what you are using for Tesla.

Jaguar said they have orders with deposits for 25k I Paces and have a contract with Magna Steyr to manufacture 13k per year in Austria.

Bolt sold 23k in the US last year and has 5k on back order in South Korea.

Nissan sold 60k of a lame duck LEAF 1.0 it its 7th year. Nissan should do at least 80k units this year. Plus a few thousand of electric e-NV200 small van.

VW sold 30k eGolfs world wide last year and stopped taking orders in some European countries. PHEVs plus a few eUP! addes another 40k sales. VW is to Europe what Toyota is to California. Even if not that great a car it still sells in large numbers because the power of its brands.
 
How’s this?

2018
Jaguar- 0 (autocar UK now saying 2019)
Bolt - 25,000
Nissan - 80,000
VW - 40,000

2019
Jaguar- 20,000
Bolt - 35,000
Nissan -100,000
Porsche - 2,000
VW - 45,000

Your numbers are off. As others pointed out you mix US sales for some brands with Tesla’s global sales. Use global data for everyone.

Look at the 2017 numbers to get a good indication (except for Nissan, 2017 was a transition from Leaf I to Leaf II obviously, 2018 numbers will be much higher):

http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2018/01/world-top-20-december-2017.html?m=1

Nissan-Renault-Mitsubishi alone will sell well over 100k EVs per year.
 
I’m not here to predict arbitrary marketshare on long-range EVs.

Sufficient to say that with 100-150 long-range EV models coming from major car makers in 2018-2025 it will happen in that time frame.

your whole thesis is that Tesla will be lost in a “red ocean” of competiton, but you are not willing to commit to Tesla having under 50% global long range EV market share (with that China caveat) before 2025?

how inadvertently bullish of you.

what’s more, you have just written one extremely informative yet concise post for anyone lacking familiarity with your posting history.
 
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"I think BMW, Nissan-Renault and lately also VW Group (Audi...) and unnamed Asian car brands are adding more resources in EVs - this can be seen in hirings and key initiatives over the past months. I think competition will be very intense in 2017-2022 when the next generation of mass-market EVs and PHEVs (around $35k or lower) is launched."

Did you note the word PHEVs in that quote from 2014?

It’s obvious that PHEV releases were/are front-loaded in earlier years whereas pure (long-range) BEV releases will arrive later in this timeframe.

Look at the release schedules of every major car maker - BMW is a good example:

bmw-electrification-roadmap_100635723_m.jpg


More PHEVs were/are coming before ~2020, then (2021-2025) a 50 : 50 mix of BEVs and longer-range PHEVs.

BMW alone will offer more BEV models than Tesla by the early 2020s (see chart above).

The schedule is intact - all major car makers will launch dozens f EVs in volume until 2022 on dedicated platforms.

Same for high-speed charging networks at 150-350 kW (because that’s the next question coming up from Tesla bulls).

Europe and NA will have high-speed CCS networks in place by the time these cars are sold in large volumes (ElectrifyAmerica, Ionity etc.):

screen-shot-2018-02-06-at-11-23-07-am.jpg


These networks will be in place by ~ 2020.

I have drawn my conclusions what this means for Tesla’s long-term valuation a long time ago - and I haven’t changed my mind given recent developments.

The problem for Tesla’s fundamentals is that the balance sheet is weak and the debt load is alraming already as of early 2018 - that’s before massive, deep-pocketed global competition strikes.

(And before Tesla can build up a global manufacturing base - something all their larger peers have on all continents).

The Model3 segment at $35-60k (if Tesla ever ships the $35k base model “variant” at all in high volume in 2019+...an open question) in partcular is a shark tank with very low margins.
 
Last edited:
How’s this?

2018
Jaguar- 0 (autocar UK now saying 2019)
Bolt - 25,000
Nissan - 80,000
VW - 40,000

2019
Jaguar- 20,000
Bolt - 35,000
Nissan -100,000
Porsche - 2,000
VW - 45,000

Don't forget Renault. Zoe must be doing a significant number. Audi is also supposed to start delivering this year but likely only small numbers maybe 5k? From next year on, the Brussels plant will only build electric Audi's. Current production is 100k/year. Likely much lower when doing exclusively electric cars, but 30-50k seems realistic. Rumours say 45k.
 
Your numbers are off. As others pointed out you mix US sales for some brands with Tesla’s global sales. Use global data for everyone.

Look at the 2017 numbers to get a good indication (except for Nissan, 2017 was a transition from Leaf I to Leaf II obviously, 2018 numbers will be much higher):

http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2018/01/world-top-20-december-2017.html?m=1

Nissan-Renault-Mitsubishi alone will sell well over 100k EVs per year.

What are your numbers for NRM?
 
Did you note the word PHEVs in that quote from 2014?

It’s obvious that PHEV releases were/are front-loaded in earlier years whereas pure (long-range) BEV releases will arrive later in this timeframe.

Look at the release schedules of every major car maker - BMW is a good example:

bmw-electrification-roadmap_100635723_m.jpg


More PHEVs were/are coming before ~2020, then (2021-2025) a 50 : 50 mix of BEVs and longer-range PHEVs.

BMW alone will offer more BEV models than Tesla by the early 2020s (see chart above).

The schedule is intact - all major car makers will launch dozens f EVs in volume until 2022 on dedicated platforms.

Same for high-speed charging networks at 150-350 kW (because that’s the next question coming up from Tesla bulls).

Europe and NA will have high-speed CCS networks in place by the time these cars are sold in large volumes (ElectrifyAmerica, Ionity etc.):

screen-shot-2018-02-06-at-11-23-07-am.jpg


These networks will be in place by ~ 2020.

I have drawn my conclusions what this means for Tesla’s long-term valuation a long time ago - and I haven’t changed my mind given recent developments.

The problem for Tesla’s fundamentals is that the balance sheet is weak and the debt load is alraming already as of early 2018 - that’s before massive, deep-pocketed global competition strikes.

(And before Tesla can build up a global manufacturing base - something all their larger peers have on all continents).

The Model3 segment at $35-60k (if Tesla ever ships the $35k base model “variant” at all in high volume in 2019+...an open question) in partcular is a shark tank with very low margins.

very cheeky tftf, trying to change the topic with a new long post about a minnow of a question regarding an old comment rather than the whale of the current comment, ie,

your whole thesis is that Tesla will be lost in a “red ocean” of competiton, but you are not willing to commit to Tesla having under 50% global long range EV market share (with that China caveat) before 2025?

how inadvertently bullish of you.

what’s more, you have just written one extremely informative yet concise post for anyone lacking familiarity with your posting history.
 
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Electric Jaguar XJ (Model S competitor) will launch in 2019.

Do you have link saying I-pace electric compact CUV delayed til 2019 because I can't find one.

BTW Hyundai Kia should sell some significant number of Ioniq EV, Kona EV, Soul EV plus PHEVs.

Why should hybrids / PHEVs go on this list?

Also given that this is a 2018/2019 list I’d rather stick to models with at least prototype testing ongoing otherwise we would need to also add the significant number of top secret EVs from Audi and VW.


2018
Jaguar- 5,000
Bolt - 25,000
Nissan - 80,000
VW - 40,000
Hyundai - 5,000

2019
Jaguar- 20,000
Bolt - 35,000
Nissan -100,000
Porsche - 2,000
VW - 45,000
Hyundai - 20,000
 
I assuming everyone is replying to @tftf since I have that person on ignore.

I see a lot of discussion on competition. Just want to say a couple of things:

1) I don't think competition will be bad for Tesla, or any EV for that matter. I say having more EV around is a great thing, it educates the public that EVs are easy to use/maintain. I remember the1st 1-2 years when the Prius started to become popular, around 2004, at 1st there were lots of FUD about how dangerous the hybrid batteries are in crashes, and how hard it is to service it. A couple of years later when most people have seen them and a lot have driven them, those FUD all went away. So whenever people start spouting Bolt vs Tesla, or Leaf vs Bolt, remember that animosity towards those cars just play into the "EV is a zero-sum game" narrative. Hate the people that only want to make them in compliance car quantity, don't hate the cars.

2) Specifically regarding Tesla's competition, as history shows that all other automakers seem to be on perpetual Elon time in brining their EV concepts to high volume production, I think we're missing the most significant competition, Tesla itself. If you want to know if a cheaper and possibly better "MS-killer" will actually kill the MS, look no further than how many reviews out there that say the M3 may potentially be a better car than the MS, and see if that has any negative impact on MS sales. I'm betting on history repeating itself here, Tesla will sell all the MS/X/3 they can make for many years to come.
 
I assuming everyone is replying to @tftf since I have that person on ignore.

I see a lot of discussion on competition. Just want to say a couple of things:

1) I don't think competition will be bad for Tesla, or any EV for that matter. I say having more EV around is a great thing, it educates the public that EVs are easy to use/maintain. I remember the1st 1-2 years when the Prius started to become popular, around 2004, at 1st there were lots of FUD about how dangerous the hybrid batteries are in crashes, and how hard it is to service it. A couple of years later when most people have seen them and a lot have driven them, those FUD all went away. So whenever people start spouting Bolt vs Tesla, or Leaf vs Bolt, remember that animosity towards those cars just play into the "EV is a zero-sum game" narrative. Hate the people that only want to make them in compliance car quantity, don't hate the cars.

2) Specifically regarding Tesla's competition, as history shows that all other automakers seem to be on perpetual Elon time in brining their EV concepts to high volume production, I think we're missing the most significant competition, Tesla itself. If you want to know a cheaper and possibly better "MS-killer" will actually kill the MS, look no further than how many reviews out there that say the M3 may potentially be a better car than the MS, and see if that has any negative impact on MS sales. I'm betting on history repeating itself here, Tesla will sell all the MS/X/3 they can make for many years to come.

Agreed.
Plus:
All EVs use E, as in Tesla Energy. What owner of a plug in would not like free-after-inital-purchase-and-lower-cost-than-the-utility power from solar panels on their roof?