Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

[30seconds]

Agreed.
Plus:
All EVs use E, as in Tesla Energy. What owner of a plug in would not like free-after-inital-purchase-and-lower-cost-than-the-utility power from solar panels on their roof?

I think the idea is that a single EV drivetrain is cheaper / less complex than a dual EV ICE setup.

We are already at the point where the Model 3 cheaper & has better performance than a BMW 3-Series plug in. That is not a development that will be going in reverse

 

[mongo]

I think the idea is that a single EV drivetrain is cheaper / less complex than a dual EV ICE setup.

We are already at the point where the Model 3 cheaper & has better performance than a BMW 3-Series plug in. That is not a development that will be going in reverse

That is also a valid idea. I was going for the "even competitors' EVs are potential revenue for Tesla".

 

[wdolson]

All this talk about the competition overwhelming Tesla by 2025 doesn't take into account Tesla's historic nimbleness. 2025 is 7 years away. For traditional car makers, 7 years usually doesn't result in a lot of change. Look at what ICEs were on the market in 2011. There is not all that much difference from what's available in 2018.

Now look at where Tesla was in 2011. Production of the Roadster was winding down and they had the vast NUMMI plant in Fremont they got for a song, but nothing was being built there yet. The Model S had been announced, but wasn't in production yet. They would trickle a few Model Ss out in 2012, but real production didn't start until 2013.

Today they have three car models on the market with a semi and next gen Roadster already unveiled and planned for production by 2020. The Model Y hasn't been announced, but everyone expects something to be announced soon. Talks in China are progressing to build a factory there, and several cities in Europe are courting Tesla for building a factory there too. There will almost certainly be an announcement for a second and possible third final assembly plant in the US soon. They need to build the Model Y and truck somewhere.

Many of the established car makers will still have more models for sale, most will have many more divisions, but I think Tesla will hold its own.

Most of the global competition will be from Europe. European car makers were hit the hardest with the success of the Model S so they are taking Tesla more seriously than the American and Japanese car makers. Additionally new laws coming into effect in many European cities and some European countries by 2025 will force auto makers to produce more EVs to be able to drive in European city centers. The European auto makers don't want to yield that market to foreign competition.

Tesla has had some issues getting production of the Model 3 going, but there is a thread here on TMC started by someone who has been monitoring the lot at the factory where all the newly produced cars are parked. Over the last few days the lot has been filling up faster and a lot more trucks are loading up and leaving. A few weeks ago most of the cars in the lot were Model S and X, but now a significant number are Model 3. It looks like production is ramping up.

My biggest concern with Tesla is their maintenance and repair network breaking. With Model S/X production the last couple of years, some service centers are more than maxed out. Portland expanded into a bigger facility a year ago and it was more than topped out by the end of last year. Ranger service helped alleviate the load a bit, but they are still over loaded. There is talk of a second Portland area service center, but I haven't heard anything more than talk from the people working at the service center.

Tesla has also been poor in getting spare parts to service centers and body shops. As the fleet grows, demand for repair parts is going to grow and so far I have not seen much effort put into improving that system. In that area most of the established car companies have them beat.

Tesla doesn't tend to announce anything until they are pretty much done with design. That's usually later than most car companies which do a lot of concept designs for car shows. We have seen a lot of teasers from car companies with EV concepts shown off at car shows, or just in animation. Only a few of those designs have made it to pre-production prototype stage. There are pictures around the web of the Porsche Mission E in testing and some other European cars are coming along.

But even if those cars become available in the next few years, quantities might be small. Car companies know how to generate a lot of buzz over something that is fairly small potatoes to the overall bottom line. GM produces more Corvettes than Bolts with no firm plans to change that anytime soon, but the Bolt was unveiled as a major triumph. The Model 3 is planned to be the first BEV to be truly mass produced and there are noises about a mass produced BEV fro other car makers, but we'll see which car will be the second mass produced (long range) BEV. The Model Y might end up being the second.

 

[30seconds]

Given Tesla's growth they will be at Millions of cars annually by 2025. 2M a year puts them near BMW & Mercedes.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Nikola Motors on Twitter
Nikola Motor Company on Twitter

 

[mspohr]

Here's one that looks interesting: SF Motors (China)
Meet SF Motors, the latest Tesla killer - Roadshow
SF Motors is exactly the kind of EV startup Elon Musk complained to Trump about | The Verge

 

[Waiting4M3]

Nikola Motors on Twitter
Nikola Motor Company on Twitter

If they can succeed that's great for them, it replaces dirty diesel and that's what's important. 28 stations won't matter much in terms of competing with Tesla semi sales. I wish both Nikola and Tesla luck.

 

[JRP3]

I just hate to see time, money, and energy wasted on inefficient technology.

 

[mongo]

If they can succeed that's great for them, it replaces dirty diesel and that's what's important. 28 stations won't matter much in terms of competing with Tesla semi sales. I wish both Nikola and Tesla luck.

Clean/ green depends on the hydrogen source. Electrolysis via solar would be clean, steam reforming methane: not so much,
I hope this well known purchaser is aware of the implications of working on/ garaging hydrogen fueled vehicles
https://dps.mn.gov/divisions/sfm/pr...e Fuels/FuelCellHydrogenFuelVehicleSafety.pdf

How do you service a hydrogen fuel-cell car at a dealer?

 

[wdolson]

Given Tesla's growth they will be at Millions of cars annually by 2025. 2M a year puts them near BMW & Mercedes.

I came across this on BMW's plans:
BMW explains its electric vehicle plans in more details and it’s going in the right direction

They make about 2 million cars a year and plan to have 15-25% of their fleet electrified as pure EVs or PHEVs by 2025. At best that's 500K a year, and a portion of those (possibly a majority) will be hybrids, not pure EVs. Tesla will most likely be producing around 2 million+ pure EVs then.

Here's one that looks interesting: SF Motors (China)
Meet SF Motors, the latest Tesla killer - Roadshow
SF Motors is exactly the kind of EV startup Elon Musk complained to Trump about | The Verge

With their financial backing, they might make it, but so far EV start ups have struggled to get off the ground. Tesla is the only one to get past infancy at this point, though I'm sure more will be coming down the pike.

 

[RobStark]

With their financial backing, they might make it, but so far EV start ups have struggled to get off the ground. Tesla is the only one to get past infancy at this point, though I'm sure more will be coming down the pike.

SF Motors is a wholly owned subsidiary of Chongqing Sokon Industry Co Ltd, and a US $17B automaker established in 1986.

It is a new brand/division from an established company not a startup.

 

[wdolson]

New divisions do sometimes fail to make it. But being a new division of a well established company is a leg up.

 

[tftf]

There are pictures around the web of the Porsche Mission E in testing and some other European cars are coming along.

(...) The Model 3 is planned to be the first BEV to be truly mass produced and there are noises about a mass produced BEV fro other car makers, but we'll see which car will be the second mass produced (long range) BEV. The Model Y might end up being the second.

Only some others? Maybe in 2018-2019, but not by 2020.
100-150 pure BEV models will be available around the world by 2022-2025 (not all of them in all regions, hence the wide range).

Second, the Model3 is not the first mass-produced EV, that was/is the Nissan LEAF - (still) made in three plants around the world:

Production will pick up further once the LEAF with a larger (likely ~60kWh) battery version becomes available.
The internatiobal Model3 rollout is so slow that the upcoming LEAF could even be available first in some markets.

The VW ID (or what its final name wil be) will also be mass-produced by the end of 2019:

Volkswagen ID hatchback: first prototypes to be built next month | Autocar

That’s the start date (late 2019, early 2020) for most large car makers.

Virtually all mass-market cars coming after 2020 will be built based on dedicated EV platforms with mass-production in mind - these are not one-offs or small runs to comply with regulations any longer.

Anyone with a buy and hold position in Tesla ignoring this massive competition (not just long-range EVs, also high-speed charging networks at 150-350 kW) will be in for a rude awakening.

The coming seven to ten years will be great for EV buyers, but bad for most EV investors (margin squeeze even as revenues multiply, shark tank in mass-market segment...).

We have seen this scenario play out in solar panels from 2008-2015* and we will see it play out in EVs from 2018-2025.



——-
* Sector pioneer Solarworld just went bankrupt for a second time in 2018.

 

[K_Dizzle]

Given Tesla's growth they will be at Millions of cars annually by 2025. 2M a year puts them near BMW & Mercedes.

I honestly think they could hit it by 2021 if they did a cap raise now

 

[SteveG3]

no time better than the present to share something here I had posted in the general thread an hour ago,



I think we’re heading in a very constructive direction here : ) !

I think when we (acting as “jurors” in the terms of Tim Urban’s excellent 2 minute video below) perceive with high confidence that this sort of intellectually dishonest posting has been made (someone is posting in the manner of an “attorney” or “witch doctor” in the terms of the video), the disagree button hit 50+ times, ie, a disagree count obviously way beyond a typical post, with no written response, is likely an improved response (communicates well with very little time spent and no clogging up the threads with futile attempts at intellectual engagement).

If someone new to the forum can’t understand what is going on,

- they can ask, and we can explain, that when in our opinion as “jurors” someone is here simply making posts here in the role of an “attorney and/or witchdoctor” rather than for a facts and reason based exchange, hitting disagree and leaving it at that is all we have time for

and/or

- we can place in our signatures comments that express this idea... ie, “I mark “disagree” and give no further time to comments I deem to be intellectually dishonest”


Here is that outstanding two minute video from Tim Urban. If you are not familiar with Tim, Elon Musk was so impressed by Tim’s long form article website, Elon invited Tim to Tesla and SpaceX to be interviewed by him.

 

[mspohr]

Only some others? Maybe in 2018-2019, but not by 2020.
100-150 pure BEV models will be available around the world by 2022-2025 (not all of them in all regions, hence the wide range).

Second, the Model3 is not the first mass-produced EV, that was/is the Nissan LEAF - (still) made in three plants around the world:

Production will pick up further once the LEAF with a larger (likely ~60kWh) battery version becomes available.
The internatiobal Model3 rollout is so slow that the upcoming LEAF could even be available first in some markets.

The VW ID (or what its final name wil be) will also be mass-produced by the end of 2019:

Volkswagen ID hatchback: first prototypes to be built next month | Autocar

That’s the start date (late 2019, early 2020) for most large car makers.

Virtually all mass-market cars coming after 2020 will be built based on dedicated EV platforms with mass-production in mind - these are not one-offs or small runs to comply with regulations any longer.

Anyone with a buy and hold position in Tesla ignoring this massive competition (not just long-range EVs, also high-speed charging networks at 150-350 kW) will be in for a rude awakening.

The coming seven to ten years will be great for EV buyers, but bad for most EV investors (margin squeeze even as revenues multiply, shark tank in mass-market segment...).

We have seen this scenario play out in solar panels from 2008-2015* and we will see it play out in EVs from 2018-2025.



——-
* Sector pioneer Solarworld just went bankrupt for a second time in 2018.

I think it's important to make a distinction between "compliance" vehicles and actually useful BEVs. Most of the vehicles being showcased for production "real soon now" are plug in hybrids with pathetically poor battery range or BEVs with less than 200 miles range which leads to chronic range anxiety and gives them limited appeal.
The Leaf has limited range and it you don't ever want to go anywhere, it's useful. The Model 3 is the first long range BEV which is reasonably affordable.
Interesting videos from Fully Charged on the Geneva Auto Show gives a good idea of the vehicles which will be released soon as well as some wild concepts:

On the one hand it is good to see the many electrified vehicles which might see the light of day. On the other hand, most of these are plug in hybrids or anemic low energy BEVs. It seems automakers just can't resist sticking an ICE in an EV since it gives them a chance to sell their old ICE technology for a few more years. At some point the extra cost and complexity of a hybrid will become too much of a burden and as soon as batteries get cheap enough, the ICE will go.
I'd love to see a list of long range BEVs that will be available "soon" but I still think Tesla has a few more years to capture (or lose) the market.

 

[JRP3]

not just long-range EVs, also high-speed charging networks at 150-350 kW) will be in for a rude awakening.

Which will likely be open standard, thus available for Tesla vehicles as well. That would mean Tesla always will have more high speed charging options than any other OEM.

 

[roblab]

Tesla has never wanted to be the leader in EV sales and technology. Their goal was to show other car makers that it could be done, and to inspire them to start moving into the EV future. I think they've done that.

 

[Reciprocity]

no time better than the present to share something here I had posted in the general thread an hour ago,



I think we’re heading in a very constructive direction here : ) !

I think when we (acting as “jurors” in the terms of Tim Urban’s excellent 2 minute video below) perceive with high confidence that this sort of intellectually dishonest posting has been made (someone is posting in the manner of an “attorney” or “witch doctor” in the terms of the video), the disagree button hit 50+ times, ie, a disagree count obviously way beyond a typical post, with no written response, is likely an improved response (communicates well with very little time spent and no clogging up the threads with futile attempts at intellectual engagement).

If someone new to the forum can’t understand what is going on,

- they can ask, and we can explain, that when in our opinion as “jurors” someone is here simply making posts here in the role of an “attorney and/or witchdoctor” rather than for a facts and reason based exchange, hitting disagree and leaving it at that is all we have time for

and/or

- we can place in our signatures comments that express this idea... ie, “I mark “disagree” and give no further time to comments I deem to be intellectually dishonest”


Here is that outstanding two minute video from Tim Urban. If you are not familiar with Tim, Elon Musk was so impressed by Tim’s long form article website, Elon invited Tim to Tesla and SpaceX to be interviewed by him.

Oh I finally get.. msnbc and cnn are the which hunters. Them and college campuses.

I'm sorry but I'm an attorney in this case and I apologize in advance.. but your probably wrong unless you agree with me anyway. So I take back my apology.

 

[SteveG3]

Oh I finally get.. msnbc and cnn are the which hunters. Them and college campuses.

I'm sorry but I'm an attorney in this case and I apologize in advance.. but your probably wrong unless you agree with me anyway. So I take back my apology.

don’t want to go OT or political and overstep here, but, OF COURSE I agree with you... nearly all mass media (so MSNBC... agree, Fox News... agree). over 90% of US media is owned by 6 companies (now maybe 5, haven’t checked on that lately). nearly all mass media has a non-“jury” constituency they are looking to serve foremost.