If only Tesla can make that many cars! - that's the doubt everyone is having right now. Hopefully this phase will clear out soon.
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Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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- elon is an ass investing TSLA
If only Tesla can make that many cars! - that's the doubt everyone is having right now. Hopefully this phase will clear out soon.
Norse
Active Member
Well the battery deal is there. If this news would have been followed up by a chinese factory I think our calls might be worth something afterall.
Anyways, I think this is big news. The chinese needs to get their pollution down, and solar and Tesla is the only answear.
Citizen-T
Active Member
That was my first thought. But actually I'm thinking I might just get back to focusing on my actual job and personal life. It was worth the extra effort to play TSLA because I knew I could stay a step ahead of the market, not so sure I can do that in solar.
Yeah, I don't want to give the impression that I'm not hurting today. I sidestepped some serious pain because I held calls that expire on Friday, but my long-term position is taking a beating today. I do take some comfort in knowing that it could have been much worse, and that I have a bunch of cash on hand now that I can redeploy.
I want more than anything to buy TSLA with that cash, but my portfolio is too TSLA heavy right now. I need to find somewhere else to put it to diversify.
Yes. I don't think I have a good enough edge to play options right now. Two things have changed: the market's expectations for what Tesla will be have gotten really high, and the accuracy of our predictions has declined. That said, I think I've got a huge edge over the rest of the market as far as the multi-year outlook for Tesla. So I think that LEAPs and common stock remain a great investment.
In the last 12 months I see that the story has changed from "the car can't be as good as a luxury sedan from BMW, M-B, Audi" to "maybe it is a good car, but only a few environmentalists will buy it" to "OK is it a good car, but the demand will be limited, and they won't be able to make more than a few % margin (like other car companies) without emissions credits." Now I see the new story developing as "OK there is a good amount of demand, they can hit their target margins w/o credits, but they may not be able make enough to support substantial growth."
To me that is a tremendous amount of progress, and more importantly, removes alot of the nonsense and really sets up deliveries and production capacity as the most important metrics for 2014 to support current valuation (maybe with modest growth).
It may seem rather obvious but higher Q3 deliveries would have shown that TSLA is growing production substantially above plan and would have set the market with more confidence that the eventual Model E scale is reachable. At this point it seems to me that we are more stuck at the "Model S and X scale (60-80k) should be reachable within 3-4 years, but 400k+ Model E scale really won't be (or will be substantially delayed)."
So basically I think the company valuation will slowly tick upwards over 2014, unit there is more visibility on Model E scale.
To me that is a tremendous amount of progress, and more importantly, removes alot of the nonsense and really sets up deliveries and production capacity as the most important metrics for 2014 to support current valuation (maybe with modest growth).
It may seem rather obvious but higher Q3 deliveries would have shown that TSLA is growing production substantially above plan and would have set the market with more confidence that the eventual Model E scale is reachable. At this point it seems to me that we are more stuck at the "Model S and X scale (60-80k) should be reachable within 3-4 years, but 400k+ Model E scale really won't be (or will be substantially delayed)."
So basically I think the company valuation will slowly tick upwards over 2014, unit there is more visibility on Model E scale.
Norse
Active Member
Beijing had already limited the number of cars that can be registered in the city to 240,000 each year, but the number will be cut to 150,000 annually.
As fewer cars are purchased in major cities, automakers will likely move their focus to other parts of the country.
Ford will shift its emphasis to other regional markets, including in central and western China, said Ford Executive Vice President Joe Hinrichs, until recently the head of the maker's Asia/Pacific operations.
Volvo, General Motors, Nissan and Volkswagen officials have also said they will focus on emerging cities and areas where the government has been encouraging regional development.
China hopes to become the world's largest market for electric vehicles, which have undersold partly because of concerns about cost and range. In Beijing, the number of electric vehicles that can be registered will be tripled, increasing from 20,000 in 2014 to 60,000 in 2017. The higher number will amount to 40 percent of total vehicles allowed by the city.
So Beijing wants to have 40% of EV in 2017!
As fewer cars are purchased in major cities, automakers will likely move their focus to other parts of the country.
Ford will shift its emphasis to other regional markets, including in central and western China, said Ford Executive Vice President Joe Hinrichs, until recently the head of the maker's Asia/Pacific operations.
Volvo, General Motors, Nissan and Volkswagen officials have also said they will focus on emerging cities and areas where the government has been encouraging regional development.
China hopes to become the world's largest market for electric vehicles, which have undersold partly because of concerns about cost and range. In Beijing, the number of electric vehicles that can be registered will be tripled, increasing from 20,000 in 2014 to 60,000 in 2017. The higher number will amount to 40 percent of total vehicles allowed by the city.
So Beijing wants to have 40% of EV in 2017!
RobStark
Well-Known Member
It is fantastic that Nissan has 200k battery pack capacity for North America.
But they really need a temperature controlled battery pack to break into the mainstream of the auto market.
Not to mention increasing range beyond 83 miles per charge?
The really interesting thing about the article is the $1.4 billion Dept. of Energy loan to finance the plant. Safe bet that Tesla will apply for one too, I should think.
I think one thing that is spooking people is the potential slow-down in US demand. Elon stated that this was not the case - they were chosing to deliver to Europe. Is there somewhere on these threads that we can track overall new US orders to confirm that there is still ample demand? I want to believe that they are truly only "supply constrained," but on days like today would be good to have a way to back it up. His comment on the call that "he believes they can sustain 20,000 cars in the US" wasn't that exciting. If they are going to get to 500,000 cars, the demand really needs to be there. Thoughts? I really appreciate these forums - I have learned so much from everybody's insights.
I was disappointed by the 20,000 figure because he definitely mention 40,000 before (I think in the shareholder meeting), but perhaps that was for the whole of North America.
While I agree with much of your analysis, I think this particular concern is misplaced. Conglomerates didn't fare well, but a battery factory would be a vertical integration play, not an unrelated business. Sears is an interesting example: its tool and white-goods businesses are vertically integrated and the only things I buy from Sears, while its failed attempt at offering financial services was a failed conglomerate play.
That said, I am concerned about Tesla deploying its scarce capital to build a factory making a low-margin item.
Query: is it people's sense from the hints on the call that the factory would start with cells and make batteries, or start with raw materials? The former makes a lot of sense, as I gather that there is a lot of handicraft in the current battery production process that must be mechanized in order for Tesla to hit its growth targets.
I doubt Tesla will be committing much capital the the giga factory. More likely Tesla will be signing a contract for a guaranteed quantity of purchase so that the partner (e.g. Panasonic) can build the factory without the risk of not having a buyer. Well, guaranteed barring Tesla going suddenly bankrupt or demand disappearing.
Tesla Motors may not advertise through the traditional media, but today I received an offer through email to test drive a Model S this weekend in Chicagoland. Tesla emailed to me similar ads on July 31 and October 9. I assume I’m on their mailing list as a shareholder without a Tesla car. So as some posters wonder about international expansion in light of supply constraints, I might wonder about this type of domestic advertising. The implication is that either demand is slowing, or that supply constraints are expected to alleviate.
I really wouldn’t worry about demand, since the company could implement a wider form of advertising. It may be hard for TMC members or Californians to believe, but a great many Americans are still unaware of Tesla Motors and its cars. I was unaware until receiving a tip in January and performing research which resulted in my share purchase. Yesterday I received a photo from a high school 1963 classmate in Delaware seated in a replica 1927 Ford Roadster he had made (see image below.) I mentioned Tesla, and he responded, “I’ve seen some info on them, but not much.”
During the eighties I lived in Palo Alto and friends tell me there is a Model S on nearly every block. That certainly is not the case in the rest of the country. Not even close. Word of mouth can take a while to traverse a continent. I see much untapped demand. If Tesla is sending email ads to people like me, my suspicion is that supply constraints are expected to alleviate, but that Elon did not have sufficient proof to give analysts during yesterday’s conference call.
Chickenlittle
Banned
As an owner and investor I also get emails. They do not bother to discriminate. There is no cost to sending emails. They are just publicizing the events. I would not read much more into it as compared to TV ads or print media which does cost
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I thought he said from raw materials to recycling, full circle sort of thing. If cell supply is the bottleneck building a battery assembly factory wouldn't help them, they need cells.
I'm pretty sure he said raw materials, because part of the plan was recycling as well. I don't think this is Tesla doing everything, it's everything being done on one site in an efficient, integrated way in order to minimize overall cost as much as possible, including by cutting travel. He mentioned it being clean, with solar IIRC.
Of course it doesn't have to start out that way. They'd need cell manufacturing and battery manufacturing and could add other parts of the procless. As long as up front they design it right it could built in pieces so they don't have to invest all the capital up front.
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