The lease on my current car runs out in May, and I’m seriously considering making the switch to EV and going with a Tesla. Probably going with the Model 3 Performance, but I’m curious if anyone that bought a Model 3 a few years ago has had any long-term issues, or heard of any other owners (Model S, etc.) that have had any common issues.
The Model 3 was introduced in 2017. Production that year was very limited, and as it was the first year of the car, reliability of those first samples would not be representative of later production. What's more, any anecdotes you hear will be just that -- anecdotes. To properly evaluate reliability of cars in the long term, you need survey data. JD Power,
Consumer Reports, and some others do this.
CR recently upgraded the Model 3's predicted reliability to Average (3 on a 5-point scale), from Below Average (2 on the 5-point scale). It looks like Model 3 reliability suffered about a year ago as Tesla ramped up production, but then it improved beginning a few months ago as they fixed production problems. This tracks with anecdotal reports of delivery-time problems like paint flaws, which are a common complaint (both anecdotally and in
CR's data).
CR requires an Average or better reliability rating to recommend a vehicle, so this bump was enough to put the Model 3 on their Recommended list. I haven't been following the JD Powers ratings recently, so I don't know where the Model 3 stands with them.
The Model S, which has been out longer, has switched several times between Average and Below Average reliability. As with many cars, reliability tends to dip when the manufacturer makes a major change and then improves as they iron out the kinks. As Tesla doesn't make its changes in batches with model year changes, as other manufacturers do, the Model S's reliability has gone up and down at random times. The Model X is much more mechanically complex and has suffered in reliability as a result. There have been problems with complex features like the rear doors, for instance. The Model 3 is much simpler than the X, and even than the S.
What about any issues selling it? Does it hold it’s value pretty well?
So far the Model 3 seems to be holding its value pretty well, from what I've heard. As to 3 or 5 years from now, I can't say -- my crystal ball isn't working at the moment, I'm afraid.
I’m currently debating between leasing or financing a new Model 3 Performance. I’m leaning towards financing it through a credit union, but I’m worried about the technology, battery performance, reliability, and re-sale value if I own it for 5-7 years.
One big advantage of Teslas is that they keep improving because of software updates. Model 3s sold a year ago now have features like Sentry Mode and true one-pedal driving that they did not have at release. Tesla is promising true full self-driving in a year or so, but I'm skeptical it'll be quite as good as Tesla is suggesting. Still, a Model 3 bought today is likely to have, in five years, features that will more-or-less match the features of another car bought in five years' time.
Battery degradation is not a big deal. Most EVs do lose a little range in the first year or so of ownership, but then the rate of degradation slows down. I don't recall the exact figures, but the expected range loss in ten years is likely to be noticeable, but not crippling -- maybe 10% or so, if I had to guess at an expected figure, with half of that drop happening in the first year. The same is true of many other EVs, too; however, Nissan Leafs have air-cooled batteries, and those tend to degrade more with time. Many early Leafs have lost 20-30%, or sometimes even more, range in under a decade. All that said, as with any product you buy, you may end up with a bum sample that degrades faster than is typical. This is especially true if you stress the battery by driving a lot more than average, by frequently going through extreme discharge cycles (draining it to 10% and then charging to 100%, say), or by making heavy use of Superchargers. The best practice is to charge to 80% or 90% on a daily basis (you can set the top charge using the car's screen or the Tesla app) and to avoid deep discharges. Normally, plugging in every night will take care of this.
Like iOS updates to older iPhones, will the Tesla software upgrades over time make the performance of the car’s computer and battery deteriorate? Has anybody heard of this happening? I’m also worried about them upgrading the car’s internal computing power, which will then prevent us long term owners from reaping the rewards of cool software updates in the future.
So far, the opposite has been true, at least for the most part; Tesla has
added features to as many cars as possible, rather than take them away. That said, there are limits on what's possible based on the hardware in the car. The earliest Model Ss lack the hardware necessary for the latest versions of Autopilot, for instance, so they don't get those features. One issue regarding batteries is that Tesla
has reduced the maximum charge rate of some Model S and X cars with 75kWh and 90kWh battery packs, as detailed in
this YouTube video. This issue affects only cars with those battery packs, though, so it looks like something that's done to prevent bigger problems, not Tesla being malicious.
All that said, we
are trusting Tesla to continue with the same policies going forward. A change in management could, in principle, result in Tesla demanding payment for new features, or refusing to offer them on current cars in the hopes of generating new sales, even when existing cars could handle the new features. So far this doesn't seem to be happening, but that's no guarantee of future behavior by Tesla. One partial exception to this rule: The "Full Self-Driving" (FSD) package keeps going up in price, and Tesla has warned that it will increase in price even more in the future. If you buy it now, you're guaranteed to get whatever FSD features Tesla releases in the future; but if you wait, you may end up paying more for the same FSD features. In a way, this is the opposite of your concern; but if you don't buy FSD right now, you may end up paying more in the long run if you decide to buy the package later.
Besides all of the concerns stated above, another thing that makes me consider leasing the vehicle is so I can re-evaluate the state of electric vehicles in 3 1/2 years. I’d imagine the electric vehicles from Tesla (and all the other luxury brands) will be far superior to where we are at the moment.
I'm skeptical that other manufacturers will have anything better than what Tesla is offering today in 3.5 years, at least in terms of the EV-specific features. You might prefer the future Ford Foo or Hyundai Bar over today's Model 3 because of things like seat comfort, cargo-hauling capacity, or price; but Tesla is far enough ahead of the competition today in terms of range, charging speed, and software that it's likely to take at least the 3.5 years you mention for other automakers to catch up to where Tesla is today. That said, in 3.5 years, Tesla will have released the Model Y and the Cybertruck, and they may well have made changes to existing products -- perhaps increased range, even faster DC fast charging speed, better computers, etc. This sort of improvement is common in all high-tech areas, though; you must decide whether to jump in now or wait for the next new thing that's expected in just a few months. In 3.5 years, there will be developments just over the horizon, too. If you always wait for the next new thing, you'll never buy anything, since something better will
always be on the horizon.
