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Long-term Model 3 demand

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by ValueAnalyst, Jun 26, 2018.

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What is the long-term annual demand level for Model 3

Poll closed Jul 3, 2018.
  1. 500k or less

    25 vote(s)
    30.5%
  2. 500k to 1m

    27 vote(s)
    32.9%
  3. 1m to 2m

    17 vote(s)
    20.7%
  4. 2m to 3m

    5 vote(s)
    6.1%
  5. 3m to 4m

    2 vote(s)
    2.4%
  6. 4m to 5m

    2 vote(s)
    2.4%
  7. 5m to 6m

    1 vote(s)
    1.2%
  8. 6m to 7m

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  9. 7m to 8m

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  10. 8m to 9m

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  11. 9m to 10m

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  12. 10m or more

    3 vote(s)
    3.7%
  1. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Closed

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    #1 ValueAnalyst, Jun 26, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 26, 2018
  2. dhrivnak

    dhrivnak Active Member

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    I think a lot rides on the $35k Model. Do they sell it in volume or do they really push upgrades? If they sell the $35k version in volume then they will sell well over 500,000 cars.
     
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  3. ewoodrick

    ewoodrick Active Member

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    It will depend on what happens to pricing after the rebate ends.
     
  4. trentbridge

    trentbridge Member

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    Assuming a plant in Europe and China - both producing 200,000 a year plus 250,000 ex Fremont = 650,000 per annum.
    Five year's production = 3.25 million.

    By that time, serious competitors may emerge..and the technology may change to make the Model 3 less attractive..
     
  5. dhanson865

    dhanson865 Active Member

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    Long term? Elon says long term in Tesla's eyes is about 2 years. Is that the time frame you consider long term?
     
    • Like x 1
    • Disagree x 1
  6. KJD

    KJD Supporting Member

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    Demand will remain strong until the Model Y appears and then it will taper off. Same thing will happen again to the Model Y when the Tesla pickup truck arrives.
     
    • Disagree x 3
  7. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Closed

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    Let's say average annual unit sales from 2025 to 2030.
     
  8. Reality

    Reality Member

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    are we assuming the 35k variant is offered at some point? yes right?
     
    • Like x 1
  9. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Closed

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    Annual global vehicle sales are approaching 100 million, no other automaker has even started building their own GWh+ battery manufacturing facilities, and the three products you mentioned can grow for many, many years before global demand is satisfied, not to even mention that they appeal to different consumer segments.
     
  10. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Closed

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    Longer term price of Model 3 will be lower than $35,000. Way, way lower.
     
    • Like x 2
  11. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Closed

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    "Long-term" so "10 to 12 Gigafactories, maybe more."
     
  12. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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    Nothing will happen. The price is not based on any rebate anywhere in the world.
     
    • Like x 4
  13. Reality

    Reality Member

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    lol @ 10m or more guy


    this place is awesome
     
  14. defc0n

    defc0n Member

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    Truth be told, ValueAnalyst tends to be quite optimistic in his/her poll options ;)
     
  15. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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    • Informative x 2
    • Helpful x 1
  16. Reality

    Reality Member

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    ya no doubt, i was looking to see something like under 100k, 100k to 300k, 300k -500k, or 500k plus


    Then BAM! Those options right to the face. He got me. I seriously do like people here, lot of optimism that makes me think there is good in this world. Everyone seems to have their heart in the right place, you are backing the right ideas, but the wrong guy/company.
     
  17. Reality

    Reality Member

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    bro, someone says its going to beat it 10 fold


    just book it now
     
  18. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Closed

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    Thanks! Do you also have a comparison of how many Nokia/Motorola/Blackberry used to produce vs. Apple's 200+ million today?
     
    • Like x 2
  19. azred

    azred Active Member

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    That's a guess and probably not one I'd bet on.
     
    • Like x 1
  20. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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    No. I'll let you pull up that data. I do think that looking at sales by brand is more relevant to that sort of comparison. As Tesla rounds out their portfolio with Model Y and a pickup truck, I think were are looking at a Top 10 Brand, >2.5M. It looks like Geely could be the one to beat.
     
    • Like x 1

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