Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Long-term Model 3 demand

What is the long-term annual demand level for Model 3

  • 500k or less

    Votes: 25 30.5%
  • 500k to 1m

    Votes: 27 32.9%
  • 1m to 2m

    Votes: 17 20.7%
  • 2m to 3m

    Votes: 5 6.1%
  • 3m to 4m

    Votes: 2 2.4%
  • 4m to 5m

    Votes: 2 2.4%
  • 5m to 6m

    Votes: 1 1.2%
  • 6m to 7m

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 7m to 8m

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 8m to 9m

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 9m to 10m

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 10m or more

    Votes: 3 3.7%

  • Total voters
    82
  • Poll closed .
This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
This can help put things into perspective. 25 best-selling vehicles in the world in 2017... - CAR magazine
jato.jpg


So it is a pretty big deal just for Model 3 to make it into the Top 25 Models list, a range of 500k to 1M per year. I think the Model 3 can do this. But to go beyond 1M is quite an extraordinary feat. I'd love to see the Model 3 beat out the F-Series.

I can't believe Volkswagen is still at the top. I really thought the Dieselgate scandal would drop them way down, at least in the near term. Who are these people still buying VW's and forgiving them so quickly.
 
  • Love
Reactions: ValueAnalyst
44,000 iphones fit in a standard shipping container.

Pteronophobia is the irrational fear of being tickled by feathers. In other words, I don't think Tesla will be limited by shipping infrastructure. In the longer term, defined herein as 2025 to 2030, I expect several smaller Gigafactories at each continent along with FSD "delivery" of vehicles.
 
Last edited:
This can help put things into perspective. 25 best-selling vehicles in the world in 2017... - CAR magazine
jato.jpg


So it is a pretty big deal just for Model 3 to make it into the Top 25 Models list, a range of 500k to 1M per year. I think the Model 3 can do this. But to go beyond 1M is quite an extraordinary feat. I'd love to see the Model 3 beat out the F-Series.

I'd be happy if by 2020 or so it's beating out the spot the Ford Focus has (currently around 650,000 a year), but I'm willing to bet that Focus will drop down to meet model 3 as it's rising up. Crossing point around 450,000 a year?

I'd be even happier to see it take the lead from the Civic and the Corrolla both bouncing around in the 800,000 to 1,000,000 range from year to year. Maybe a crossover around 700,000 in whatever year that happens?

The F series pickup, that'll take multiple Tesla Models to unseat (Model Y will help, but 3 and the Pickup will have a big place as well). Even if one car takes the top spot, multiple cars/trucks helped dethrone the prior king.
 
  • Like
  • Disagree
Reactions: Troy, KJD and jhm
Pteronophobia is the irrational fear of being tickled by feathers. In other words, I don't think Tesla will be limited by shipping infrastructure. In the longer term, defined herein as 2025 to 2030, I expect several smaller Gigafactories at each continent along with FSD "delivery" of vehicles.

My point wasn't shipping costs, but relative scale. But thanks for the laugh about model 3 self delivery.
 
I'd be happy if by 2020 or so it's beating out the spot the Ford Focus has (currently around 650,000 a year), but I'm willing to bet that Focus will drop down to meet model 3 as it's rising up. Crossing point around 450,000 a year?

Ford is not going to be making the Focus any longer. They are only going to make trucks, SUVs and Mustangs.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: Olle
I am actually betting on a pretty high peak sales number, though I think it will drop as more alternatives become available. Think Model T -- peaked at over 2 million per year, but then started declining, and the new Model A never reached that level.

I think the Model 3 is more analogous to the Model A, as opposed to the model T.

Prior to the Model T the middle class walked, rode a horse or took a train. The model A was a modern and substantially improved version of older auto tech.

I've been wondering if Tesla might build some cars in Nevada in 2020/2021. Its the easiest place to add capacity in the middle term. The paint shop would probably be the biggest commitment. Otherwise I don't see how Tesla scales smoothly in 2020 - 2022.
 
How would Model 3 even approach 10M in one year? With over a 10% share of the market, they'd be so common place on the road that anyone wanting an ounce of self-expression would run screaming away from them. So this would run counter to the consumer mindset that one's car is an extension of oneself. To get there you have to have a much more utilitarian or conformist kind of mindset, which may be the secret to the F-series.

So possibly the Model 3 as a service vehicle (self-driving cars for hire) would be a route to 10M. But even that would be dependent on Transport-as-a-Service taking a huge bite out of private auto ownership. If the TaaS model approaches that sort of scale, I believe we will see vehicles models dedicated exclusively to that purpose. Every detail would be optimized for TaaS and only TaaS. As it stands I think the Model 3 is designed with private ownership in mind.
 
How would Model 3 even approach 10M in one year? With over a 10% share of the market, they'd be so common place on the road that anyone wanting an ounce of self-expression would run screaming away from them. So this would run counter to the consumer mindset that one's car is an extension of oneself. To get there you have to have a much more utilitarian or conformist kind of mindset, which may be the secret to the F-series.

So possibly the Model 3 as a service vehicle (self-driving cars for hire) would be a route to 10M. But even that would be dependent on Transport-as-a-Service taking a huge bite out of private auto ownership. If the TaaS model approaches that sort of scale, I believe we will see vehicles models dedicated exclusively to that purpose. Every detail would be optimized for TaaS and only TaaS. As it stands I think the Model 3 is designed with private ownership in mind.

"With over a 10% share of the market"

I expect lower ASP, FSD, and bulging middle classes in China, India, and Africa to expand TAM to beyond what many currently expect.

Further, please note that both Model S and X have captured more than 10% market share in their respective, niche U.S. segments.
 
  • Like
Reactions: dhrivnak
Longer term price of Model 3 will be lower than $35,000. Way, way lower.
For the base model only, agreed.

A few years down the line when competitors can finally produce enough EVs to actually influence the market, Tesla will use their big cost advantage in batteries to fuel continued expansion.

But 10 million per year won't ever happen for the Model 3. That is ludicrous.
 
Just like the Model S tanked when the X came out. Seriously I think there is a huge market out there especially if they sell the $35k model.

Hasn't demand for the S/X stabilized at around 100K? Certainly the X took S demand. The car market certainly prefers the small "SUV". A four door sedan with a trunk is the first choice of only a small percentage of buyers.
 
Hasn't demand for the S/X stabilized at around 100K? Certainly the X took S demand. The car market certainly prefers the small "SUV". A four door sedan with a trunk is the first choice of only a small percentage of buyers.
No, production has stabilized. There's no sign that they aren't still production limited.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ValueAnalyst
"With over a 10% share of the market"

I expect lower ASP, FSD, and bulging middle classes in China, India, and Africa to expand TAM to beyond what many currently expect.

Further, please note that both Model S and X have captured more than 10% market share in their respective, niche U.S. segments.
It's one thing for a single model to gain 10% of a particular narrowly defined segment, quite another thing to capture 10% of the entire automotive market.

I certainly agree that there is a lot of emerging demand in developing markets. Will this rising middle class all want to drive the same car? Perhaps, but 10 million seems a stretch to me. If the Model 3 were priced 50% lower, your suggestion would be more compelling. The $35k to $70k price range is pretty high end for an aspiring middle class in the developing world. As a fleet vehicle, however, you could get enough fuel displacement value out of a long life battery to make this work, but that is the sort of thing you would find in a purpose built commercial vehicle. I don't think Model 3 is sporting a million mile battery at this point in time (not to say it couldn't at some point in the future). I'd also point out that in countries were the pay scale is a tenth of what it is in the US, FSD is not nearly as valuable because human drivers are not expensive to hire.

So sure, while I am optimistic about these opportunities and think that the Model 3 can reach 1M to 2M, I struggle to see how this scales to 10M.

On the supply side, 10M Model 3 would require some 750 GWh of pack supply. Just scaling up to that sort of volume would take 6 or more years. But hopefully Tesla will bring other product to market in that time rapidly increasing demand for pack supply. Let's suppose Tesla can get to 1000 GWh by 2025. Do we really want Model 3 to consume over 70% of that supply? That would really not leave much capacity for Model Y, Tesla Semi, Power products, or anything else. I think Tesla may do better with a more diversified product mix, which also will go a long way to tapping these growth markets in emerging economies. I think aggregate demand for battery pack grows faster with a diverse portfolio of products than with a single killer product.
 
You already are.

If GM had kept up with technology like the computer industry has, we would all be driving $25 cars that got 1,000 MPG.
- Bill Gates

This, and more, is what Tesla has set out to accomplish.
Yes. That's exactly what they set out to accomplish, and FWIW, it remains part of their "vision statement" . But the pen can write anything. Meanwhile, reality has intervened and while Tesla is talking like a company out to change the world, while they are building out in a way intended to change the world, they are still selling very expensive cars to a small niche market. The transition from niche to mass market has gotten seriously stretched out by the costs of getting there. While I understand why Tesla must do this, it is running the risk of getting trapped in the cozy confines of a rich but small and less globally-significant market sector.
Robin
 
  • Helpful
Reactions: ValueAnalyst
No, production has stabilized. There's no sign that they aren't still production limited.
That's how I understand it. I think we need Gigafactories in China and Germany to have the abundance of floor space to open up additional S/X lines. Adding additional S/X lines in Fremont would come at the expense of space for Model 3 lines at Fremont.

So right now testing the upper limits of demand for S and X is simply not a priority. I'd love to see China and Germany GFs add 50k capacity each, to double the production of S/X. Moreover, a European buyer is more quickly served by a made to order car in Germany than one that is shipped from California. Cutting that delivery time can add to demand in Europe. Also the price in Euros can stabilize for a vehicle primary built in Euros, while cutting some delivery costs. So there are many ways that a GF Germany can carve out an even better market for S/X in Europe. We have not tested the limits Europen demand until we are making them in Europe.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Esme Es Mejor
It's one thing for a single model to gain 10% of a particular narrowly defined segment, quite another thing to capture 10% of the entire automotive market.

I certainly agree that there is a lot of emerging demand in developing markets. Will this rising middle class all want to drive the same car? Perhaps, but 10 million seems a stretch to me. If the Model 3 were priced 50% lower, your suggestion would be more compelling. The $35k to $70k price range is pretty high end for an aspiring middle class in the developing world. As a fleet vehicle, however, you could get enough fuel displacement value out of a long life battery to make this work, but that is the sort of thing you would find in a purpose built commercial vehicle. I don't think Model 3 is sporting a million mile battery at this point in time (not to say it couldn't at some point in the future). I'd also point out that in countries were the pay scale is a tenth of what it is in the US, FSD is not nearly as valuable because human drivers are not expensive to hire.

So sure, while I am optimistic about these opportunities and think that the Model 3 can reach 1M to 2M, I struggle to see how this scales to 10M.

On the supply side, 10M Model 3 would require some 750 GWh of pack supply. Just scaling up to that sort of volume would take 6 or more years. But hopefully Tesla will bring other product to market in that time rapidly increasing demand for pack supply. Let's suppose Tesla can get to 1000 GWh by 2025. Do we really want Model 3 to consume over 70% of that supply? That would really not leave much capacity for Model Y, Tesla Semi, Power products, or anything else. I think Tesla may do better with a more diversified product mix, which also will go a long way to tapping these growth markets in emerging economies. I think aggregate demand for battery pack grows faster with a diverse portfolio of products than with a single killer product.

If Model 3 is at 1m to 2m, then who is supplying the other 100m+ annual units in 2025 to 2030, which is the subject of this thread?
 
  • Like
Reactions: Olle