Yes, I am assuming Model 3 ASP lower than $20,000 by 2025 to 2030, which is the subject of this thread.
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Long-term Model 3 demand
- Thread starter ValueAnalyst
- Start date
Yes, I am assuming Model 3 ASP lower than $20,000 by 2025 to 2030, which is the subject of this thread.
dhrivnak
Active Member
I was just saying S sales have not dropped due to the X. They both appeared to have plateaued but the S has not dropped.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
US production of the Ford Focus ends in 2018 but that doesn't mean it goes away globally. That chart was for global sales not US.
The Focus only sold about 160,000 in the US in 2017 so take that off the top and you still have Ford Focus around 500,000 or so on the worldwide list way ahead of Tesla (for now).
Also they aren't just getting rid of the Focus in the US, they are replacing it with the "Focus Active". This Is the Ford Focus Active | News | Car and Driver
If the Focus and Focus Active get combined to one line Focus could climb on that list. If they are seperated Focus will stay on the list but will drop a few slots.
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jhm
Well-Known Member
I see Tesla with about a 10% market share by units or up to 20% by revenue. So if Tesla is selling about 10M units, what fraction of those are Model 3? My point is that I anticipate a well diversified product portfolio. Already Musk is talking about a pickup truck; yeah, bring it on. We've got 3 models in production. Semi, Model Y, Roadster and Pickup add 4 more to the portfolio in the next 4 to 5 years. Commercial vans and minivan? Boring tunnel skates could be another. What other products will developed in the 2022 to 2030 timeframe? Here we are getting out to secret master plan parte tres stuff. Part of this we can't really know right now because it depends on what segments remain strong niches for ICE. We'll need new products to crash into those segments. So for example, if station wagons were to become all the rage for gasmobile sales, Tesla would want to offer an electric station wagon. Ultimately, we need compelling electric models in every automotive segment. Some competitors may beat us to that in some segments, and some segment we don't care about. For example, Musk has been clear that he does not want to make a lower end vehicle than the Model 3. Basically the other OEMs will be clamoring to make cheap EVs under $22k, but Elon does not have much of an appetite for this. This is why I think Tesla could capture 20% market share by revenue, but have lower share by unit. Tesl
RobStark
Well-Known Member
"In response to Bill's comments, General Motors issued a press release stating: If GM had developed technology like Microsoft, we would all be driving cars with the following characteristics:
1. For no reason whatsoever, your car would crash twice a day.
2. Every time they repainted the lines in the road, you would have to buy a new car.
3. Occasionally your car would die on the freeway for no reason. You would have to pull to the side of the road, close all of the windows, shut off the car, restart it, and reopen the windows before you could continue.
For some reason you would simply accept this.
4. Occasionally, executing a maneuver such as a left turn would cause your car to shut down and refuse to restart, in which case you would have to reinstall the engine.
5. Macintosh would make a car that was powered by the sun, was reliable, five times as fast and twice as easy to drive - but would run on only five percent of the roads.
6. The oil, water temperature, and alternator warning lights would all be replaced by a single "This Car Has Performed An Illegal Operation" warning light.
7. The airbag system would ask "Are you sure?" before deploying.
8. Occasionally, for no reason whatsoever, your car would lock you out and refuse to let you in until you simultaneously lifted the door handle, turned the key and grabbed hold of the radio antenna.
9. Every time a new car was introduced car buyers would have to learn how to drive all over again because none of the controls would operate in the same manner as the old car.
10. You'd have to press the "Start" button to turn the engine off."
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Musk has already speculated about a subcompact priced below Model 3.
If Tesla does compete in the $20k-$30k range it is unlikely it will be a Model 3 although the base price may drop some.
gavine
Petrol Head turned EV Enthusiast
Now that we are doing old computer jokes. Here's one:
Q. What does PCMCIA stand for (remember those laptop cards) ?
A. "People Can't Memorize Computer Industry Acronyms"
Q. What does PCMCIA stand for (remember those laptop cards) ?
A. "People Can't Memorize Computer Industry Acronyms"
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Tesla Model Y rendered to life from Elon Musk's latest teaser image
"Apart from his renders of the Model Y, Massé also opted to take a crack at Tesla’s upcoming subcompact sedan. The vehicle was mentioned during the recently held 2018 Annual Shareholder Meeting, when a member of the audience asked Elon Musk if Tesla is planning on breaching the highly lucrative subcompact sedan market. Musk aptly responded to the inquiry, stating that he thinks Tesla will “do a (sub)compact car in less than five years.”
I can neither deny nor confirm
but even after two years, I still don't think anyone really knows isn't that hilarious?Price declines in the longer term may exceed anyone's imagination, as this industry has been left behind for a century. Note that we are talking a decade forward. Think about all the things we take for granted today that did not exist in early 2000's: Vala Afshar on Twitter Many of us could not even imagine that this list would have taken over the world by 2018. We can already imagine the positive impact of FSD, AI, NN, AR/VR, etc. on the future, and imagine what we cannot even imagine yet. Tesla is leading other automakers in many of these areas and other, as they apply to transportation and manufacturing, and the gap is only widening. Cost of transportation will likely come down quicker and more than many expect, and Tesla is leading (read: forcing) this disruption. What a day to be alive.
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RobStark
Well-Known Member
Cost declines would be realized in Tesla cars below Model 3.
You can buy a watch that tells time accurately for $10 but people still pay $7k-$100k for a Rolex.
No reason to destroy brand equity of the Model 3.
Just make a Model 2 for the $20k-$30k market.
Rolex's mission is not to accelerate the world's transition to luxury watches, and here's what Elon thinks about brands: Elon Musk on Twitter
I hate whole idea of brands and branding. So much bs. I hope it messes with our brand. Brands suck.
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
Kinda depends on whether anyone else starts making 1/10th way decent vehicles or if they just keep churning out complete crap...
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Elon also did not care about profitability. Until he did.
For someone who hates brands Musk has carefully crafted brands for Musk himself,Tesla, SpaceX, Model S , Model X and Model 3.
Tesla's mission is not to sell 10M Model 3s per year. Transitioning the world to sustainable production and consumption of energy is not best served by ignoring market realities.
Yes, and taking it one step further: can others even start making 1/10th way decent vehicles before Tesla grows to numbers indicated above? This remains to be seen, and as with any future predictions, I may be wrong. Thanks for sharing your view!
I think you probably could, but I assume you choose not to. That's fine. It's also not a binary choice any more.I can neither deny nor confirm
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
jhm
Well-Known Member
Thanks. Somehow that slipped my memory.
It does seem that Tesla keeps figuring out better ways to miniaturize their car. I love the progression of reducing the wiring. So much cost and weight to cut!
So if Tesla can pull off a fine subcompact in 5 years, that will be great. We need compelling EVs in every segment.
