Now that a couple of months have passed, we can see that Tesla is set to fill a substantial fraction of AWD orders by the end of Q3. Our own family's order, from a 2016/03/31 reservation and 2018/06/27 order, is scheduled for delivery in the coming days, and this is true for many others.
Based on my reading of AWD delivery thread and AWD / Performance Order Tracker, it appears that many outstanding orders are also likely to be delivered in Q4. The AWD/performance tracker spreadsheet (thanks to @jkirkwood001) may be underreporting the percentage of vehicles scheduled for Q3 because of folks not updating their entries, but we also see that there are posters in the AWD Delivery Thread who are frustrated because they haven't yet been contacted by Tesla with status or to arrange delivery.
Given this, the fact that orders are likely growing significantly as more people get exposed to the Model 3, and that Q4 orders will be motivated by the US federal tax credit dropping in half at the conclusion of Q4, I don't think Tesla will have any trouble selling, in North America alone, every Long Range Model 3 (RWD, AWD, and Performance) that it can manufacture before the end of the year.
As for the wait for a "custom order car", we and many others are waiting a full three months from time of order, not to mention the wait since reserving in 2016. And Tesla isn't really building custom order cars - they're just building all configurations and assigning them to orders at the last minute.
In early 2019, though, it seems most likely that Tesla will need to open up orders in overseas markets in order to sell its entire, increasing volume of Long Range production. This seems especially critical since Short Range cars won't go into production until Spring 2019. Once the Model 3 Short Range is on the market, my guess is that Tesla will be production constrained for some time.
Longer term, the biggest limiting factor for Model 3 sales is probably that it's a sedan in a market that has shifted toward CUVs, SUVs, and trucks. Enter Model Y and the Tesla Pickup.
Based on my reading of AWD delivery thread and AWD / Performance Order Tracker, it appears that many outstanding orders are also likely to be delivered in Q4. The AWD/performance tracker spreadsheet (thanks to @jkirkwood001) may be underreporting the percentage of vehicles scheduled for Q3 because of folks not updating their entries, but we also see that there are posters in the AWD Delivery Thread who are frustrated because they haven't yet been contacted by Tesla with status or to arrange delivery.
Given this, the fact that orders are likely growing significantly as more people get exposed to the Model 3, and that Q4 orders will be motivated by the US federal tax credit dropping in half at the conclusion of Q4, I don't think Tesla will have any trouble selling, in North America alone, every Long Range Model 3 (RWD, AWD, and Performance) that it can manufacture before the end of the year.
As for the wait for a "custom order car", we and many others are waiting a full three months from time of order, not to mention the wait since reserving in 2016. And Tesla isn't really building custom order cars - they're just building all configurations and assigning them to orders at the last minute.
In early 2019, though, it seems most likely that Tesla will need to open up orders in overseas markets in order to sell its entire, increasing volume of Long Range production. This seems especially critical since Short Range cars won't go into production until Spring 2019. Once the Model 3 Short Range is on the market, my guess is that Tesla will be production constrained for some time.
Longer term, the biggest limiting factor for Model 3 sales is probably that it's a sedan in a market that has shifted toward CUVs, SUVs, and trucks. Enter Model Y and the Tesla Pickup.
