I'm long TSLA and generally very positive on the company, but am somewhat leery about the next six months for the following reasons: 1) The initial gross margins on the X are probably much lower than most realize (10-12%). 2) The introduction of the Model X may temporarily sap demand for the S, which is nearly three times as profitable. 3) As well, we now have a meaningful number of used Model S cars hitting the market, which may also sap demand from those buyers that would have otherwise stretched for a new S. 4) If Tesla temporarily sees less demand than anticipated for the S, it will have a huge impact on gross margins. 5) My experience is that changes in the perceived profitability of a company -- even short term -- often have a disproportionate impact on stock prices. 6) Musk also suggested that initial gross margins on storage will be low – just slightly positive gross margins. 7) Tesla is investing heavily right now on cap ex and operating expense. It is counting on a decent mix of Model S sales to contribute to profitability and cash flow in the second half of the year. Weaker than expected S sales, combined with low profitability on the X and still huge cap ex spend, makes for an ugly near term financial picture. 8) Unlike the perma-bears, I do believe there is latent demand for the S, which could be generated with marketing spend. However, if they are forced to ramp up marketing spend in the second half of the year, it will occur precisely when profitability is getting squeezed because of low gross margins on the X and on storage. In addition, it would take some time for marketing spend to translate into sales, even for Tesla. To be clear, I’m bullish on TSLA long term and I certainly don’t see the above dynamics as fatal to the company. But I do see the possibility of a 30-60% decline in the stock price and perhaps a dilutive capital raise at a much lower valuation. Of course, we’ll know much more about the plausibility of the above scenario after the second quarter call, but I’m interested in the views of those on this forum now. What am I missing?