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Loose long-term projections 2020-2030

Robocop

Member
Jul 10, 2017
241
1,617
US
Was making a spreadsheet to calculate various net worth projections for the next 4-5 years, things like home equity, emergency savings, multiple retirement accounts, etc. In doing so, I needed to make a loose projection of TSLA's stock price, as my brokerage acct. etc. is nearly entirely TSLA stock.

I did a very simple 20% growth per year, essentially from this August, to 12 months later, then another 12, etc. And I filled in the gaps monthly. Note: This ignores the wild downswings and volatility, and will likely be very wrong in any given month/year. But I thought the very long term projection fit surprisingly well with what others here have been saying recently.

Year - Share Price
2020 - $514 (Today - 480B Market Cap)
2021 - $627
2022 - $765
2023 - $933
2024 - $1138 (This would be 1T Market Cap)
2025 - $1387
2026 - $1692
2027 - $2063
2028 - $2516
2029 - $3038
2030 - $3741 (This would be 3.5T Market Cap)

That is just 20% growth, technically starting on August of each year.

What are your thoughts? I think in the short term it's actually too conservative, 2021 could be pretty great. But realistically I'd expect the growth RATE to slow halfway through this. I can see TSLA hitting 1T market cap easily (sooner than 2024), but the unprecedented 3+T market cap could take who knows how long.

Pretty interesting how this mimics some of ARK invest's projections. And of course this ignores future splits, future recessions, crazier stuff than Covid, who knows! But this is what I'm using, personally, for some light share projection. That is all!

EDIT: The calculator I was using was compounding monthly, I think, hence the small discrepency in not simply being multiples of 1.2
 

CLK350

Member
Oct 15, 2019
303
2,223
New York City
Was making a spreadsheet to calculate various net worth projections for the next 4-5 years, things like home equity, emergency savings, multiple retirement accounts, etc. In doing so, I needed to make a loose projection of TSLA's stock price, as my brokerage acct. etc. is nearly entirely TSLA stock.

I did a very simple 20% growth per year, essentially from this August, to 12 months later, then another 12, etc. And I filled in the gaps monthly. Note: This ignores the wild downswings and volatility, and will likely be very wrong in any given month/year. But I thought the very long term projection fit surprisingly well with what others here have been saying recently.

Year - Share Price
2020 - $514 (Today - 480B Market Cap)
2021 - $627
2022 - $765
2023 - $933
2024 - $1138 (This would be 1T Market Cap)
2025 - $1387
2026 - $1692
2027 - $2063
2028 - $2516
2029 - $3038
2030 - $3741 (This would be 3.5T Market Cap)

That is just 20% growth, technically starting on August of each year.

What are your thoughts? I think in the short term it's actually too conservative, 2021 could be pretty great. But realistically I'd expect the growth RATE to slow halfway through this. I can see TSLA hitting 1T market cap easily (sooner than 2024), but the unprecedented 3+T market cap could take who knows how long.

Pretty interesting how this mimics some of ARK invest's projections. And of course this ignores future splits, future recessions, crazier stuff than Covid, who knows! But this is what I'm using, personally, for some light share projection. That is all!

EDIT: The calculator I was using was compounding monthly, I think, hence the small discrepency in not simply being multiples of 1.2

Excellent idea - I don't have time to modify this model - but if anyone can, I would suggest figuring out how to account for the earlier 2012-2019 period when the SP (but apparently not the funding required) was artificially suppressed. This would be a first period - then there would be the Jan 2019 onwards period when Tesla really figured out how to build the Gigafactories. That growth would likely be more explosive. Even more so if we have a new government approach towards modern/ logical response to what is possible technologically - just how the Chinese (sic), the Germans, and the EU in general have done.
 

Robocop

Member
Jul 10, 2017
241
1,617
US
This would be a first period - then there would be the Jan 2019 onwards period when Tesla really figured out how to build the Gigafactories.

Yeah 2017/2018 really felt supressed. Like I thought I was crazy knowing it'd go up in value but simply was not. I think *some* barriers have been removed, and we may see more steady growth from this point forward. Not w/o any drops, but I just can't forsee another 3-4 years of sideways trading like before.
 

jeewee3000

Active Member
Sep 1, 2015
1,055
5,531
Belgium
Seems conservative.

My personal view: by 2030 the SP (before split) should be around 10k bear case. Bull case 60k (including succesful FSD, big if).

So in current post-split value my range for the SP in 2030 is $2.000 - $12.000.

$3.741 therefore seems reasonable. Might be reached way sooner if FSD pans out (that's the big unknown for me in Tesla's future. Energy and automotive should work out nicely).
 

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