Was making a spreadsheet to calculate various net worth projections for the next 4-5 years, things like home equity, emergency savings, multiple retirement accounts, etc. In doing so, I needed to make a loose projection of TSLA's stock price, as my brokerage acct. etc. is nearly entirely TSLA stock.
I did a very simple 20% growth per year, essentially from this August, to 12 months later, then another 12, etc. And I filled in the gaps monthly. Note: This ignores the wild downswings and volatility, and will likely be very wrong in any given month/year. But I thought the very long term projection fit surprisingly well with what others here have been saying recently.
Year - Share Price
2020 - $514 (Today - 480B Market Cap)
2021 - $627
2022 - $765
2023 - $933
2024 - $1138 (This would be 1T Market Cap)
2025 - $1387
2026 - $1692
2027 - $2063
2028 - $2516
2029 - $3038
2030 - $3741 (This would be 3.5T Market Cap)
That is just 20% growth, technically starting on August of each year.
What are your thoughts? I think in the short term it's actually too conservative, 2021 could be pretty great. But realistically I'd expect the growth RATE to slow halfway through this. I can see TSLA hitting 1T market cap easily (sooner than 2024), but the unprecedented 3+T market cap could take who knows how long.
Pretty interesting how this mimics some of ARK invest's projections. And of course this ignores future splits, future recessions, crazier stuff than Covid, who knows! But this is what I'm using, personally, for some light share projection. That is all!
EDIT: The calculator I was using was compounding monthly, I think, hence the small discrepency in not simply being multiples of 1.2
I did a very simple 20% growth per year, essentially from this August, to 12 months later, then another 12, etc. And I filled in the gaps monthly. Note: This ignores the wild downswings and volatility, and will likely be very wrong in any given month/year. But I thought the very long term projection fit surprisingly well with what others here have been saying recently.
Year - Share Price
2020 - $514 (Today - 480B Market Cap)
2021 - $627
2022 - $765
2023 - $933
2024 - $1138 (This would be 1T Market Cap)
2025 - $1387
2026 - $1692
2027 - $2063
2028 - $2516
2029 - $3038
2030 - $3741 (This would be 3.5T Market Cap)
That is just 20% growth, technically starting on August of each year.
What are your thoughts? I think in the short term it's actually too conservative, 2021 could be pretty great. But realistically I'd expect the growth RATE to slow halfway through this. I can see TSLA hitting 1T market cap easily (sooner than 2024), but the unprecedented 3+T market cap could take who knows how long.
Pretty interesting how this mimics some of ARK invest's projections. And of course this ignores future splits, future recessions, crazier stuff than Covid, who knows! But this is what I'm using, personally, for some light share projection. That is all!
EDIT: The calculator I was using was compounding monthly, I think, hence the small discrepency in not simply being multiples of 1.2