Losing enthusiasm for Model 3

[cwerdna]

We've been driving sub-compacts for decades. The Model 3 is eight inches wider and over a foot longer than our Kia. It's a compact, not a sub-compact like the Leaf or Prius.

FYI: According to the EPA website, the Nissan Leaf is considered a midsize.
2018 Nissan Leaf

Not only that but gen 3 Prius (2015), gen 4 (current Prius, 2018 in the link following, earlier Leaf (2017 in the link following but also true for 2011 to 2016) and Model 3 ALL have EPA size classification of midsize car.

Compare Side-by-Side (see Specs tab)

Compare Side-by-Side shows that 06 Prius (gen 2 that covers 04 to 09 model year), 2011 and 2013 Leaf are all also midsize cars.

The EPA goes by interior volume, so a hatchback will often get bumped into a higher class compared to a sedan. I go by exterior dimensions.

Doesn't seem like a good way to go.

The Karma Revero and Fisker Karma are huge on the outside but tiny on the inside: subcompact car. The Cadillac ELR is longer and wider than a gen 3 Prius yet the former receives also subcompact while the latter received midsize car.

Compare Side-by-Side

Even the '18 Corolla is considered a midsized car (not a hatchback) vs. the subompact ELR even though the ELR is longer and wider: Compare Side-by-Side.

 

[Garlan Garner]

There are far fewer parts but the cost to repair the ones that do fail are very costly. Maybe a secondary market will develop to do repairs but replacing a drive motor or battery will cost as much as a model 3 is worth after 100.000 miles or 8 years having Tesla do it. Even small repairs like window motors are not $50.00 items like many ICE cars. I can see them being like I phones. Great as long as they work but once they break it's time to replace.

I don't care what logic anyone uses. The EV will come in cheaper for repairs over the lifetime of the vehicle.

 

[Garlan Garner]

If you have multiple cars, there's no reason to not have multiple EVs. Keep the deposit on the three and get a Bolt now. When your 3 reservation finally goes live, use it to replace one or more of your remaining gas cars. You won't need a gas car anymore.

Depending on where you are and where you want to go, the Bolt can be used for road trips. Even under the most ideal situations it is still a lot slower than a Tesla though. We have driven the same 2200 mile round trip in our Bolt and in our Model X. The Bolt took 3 days out and 3 days back. The X 2 and 2, like our old gas cars did. Once you have the Bolt and the Model 3 you'll find you have no need of a gas car.

These are our only vehicles now. Down from a high of 5 vehicles: GMC Acadia, BMW Z4, BMW K75, Nissan LEAF, and a Fiat 500e.

I just don't understand when someone says something like "JUST" get a bolt now. I hear that over and over here. "Just" getting a bolt or a leaf is not "just" and easy thing. There is money involved and its not free to "just" do anything.
You have to "just" buy it, then "just" sell it in a way that you don't "just" lose money, and then "just" sell it at the right time so that you aren't paying "just" 2 car notes at the same time. And you can't "just" sell it early because then you won't have a car.

Maybe people think the process of "just" getting a Bolt is as simple as getting a loaf of bread, but I immediately think of all of the timing and planning that has to accompany the whole task....and sometimes that makes it "just" not worth it.

 

[nvx1977]

funny thing is that the person you quoted never used the word "just."

 

[Garlan Garner]

funny thing is that the person you quoted never used the word "just."

Really? I don't know what is so funny, however I do know what's sad. What's sad is the inability to read whats been typed.

Did you read my post at all?

......something like "JUST" get a bolt now......

 

[richman0841]

The Bolt has a DC Fast charging option. It uses CCS. Here in California, there is a growing highway network of CCS chargers. Not as convenient as SC's, but it does exist. I wish Tesla had an adapter, honestly, would be helpful sometimes at CCS-only stations.

Does anyone besides me see an opportunity for some third-party electrical company to make a killing selling adapters?

 

[N5329K]

I don't care what logic anyone uses. The EV will come in cheaper for repairs over the lifetime of the vehicle.

Totally correct, in theory. And some EV's do seem to require less upkeep. People with Leafs (Leaves?) seem to have few problems. But I'd say so far Tesla's focus on over-complicated, software-intense vehicles has kept them from living up to theory. Maybe their culture of constant improvement, tweaking, OTA fixes, means owners have to put up with constant beta testing. Because as ecologists and coders know, there's no such thing as making one change.
Maybe someday.
Robin

 

[igotzzoom]

To @Garlan Garner’s point, every automotive sales transaction basically loses money. To me, it makes more sense to just hang on to what you have currently, assuming it’s operating reliably, and buy the Model 3 when it’s ready, rathere than hopping in and out of leases and payments in the interim.

 

[Jaymc5]

To @Garlan Garner’s point, every automotive sales transaction basically loses money. To me, it makes more sense to just hang on to what you have currently, assuming it’s operating reliably, and buy the Model 3 when it’s ready, rathere than hopping in and out of leases and payments in the interim.

Exactly, will be holding onto my '09 Corolla with only 101K miles on it and buy the Model 3 when the Corolla is done.

 

[cwerdna]

I don't care what logic anyone uses. The EV will come in cheaper for repairs over the lifetime of the vehicle.

Ha.

Totally correct, in theory. And some EV's do seem to require less upkeep. People with Leafs (Leaves?) seem to have few problems. But I'd say so far Tesla's focus on over-complicated, software-intense vehicles has kept them from living up to theory

Agreed. A few examples:
- at least 3 folks here on TMC w/Model S that are on at least their 7th or 8th drive unit and many others having had multiple replacmeents
- the disastrous FWDs on the Model X
- the sometimes problematic front doors on the X (example at Major Model X Fail, Videos and Pictures)
- still seeing reports of DU failures on all Tesla models
- $700+ door handles on the S
- terrible Model X reliability (as seen by so many reports here besides being dead last 10 Least Reliable Cars and a large # of issues within 20 months and under 25K miles at 2016 Tesla Model X Long-Term Road Test - Wrap-Up)
- half shafts Clunking sound is costing me a bundle to fix out of warranty and numerous replacements on the X at Acceleration Shudder
- costly MCU replacements on the S

Once Teslas go out of warranty, I suspect some of the probs will continue and be costly to fix outside of warranty.

I've pointed out automotive reliability and durability testing, to which that thread is crickets.

If you take a reasonably large set of Teslas (say 100+) and compare to the same # of known reliable Toyota and/or Honda models over the long term, I know which I'd put my $ on.

 

[vinnie97]

Those trends have me dead scared of trading in my perfectly reliable Toyota.

 

[NeverFollow]

Losing enthusiasm for Model 3

I know I'm probably going to get plenty of blowback on this post, but I don't really care. I admit that I was very excited and passionate when I originally put in my deposit online night of the reveal in 2016. That was now nearly two years ago. Since then, GM has brought a full-fledged long-range EV to market, and seems to have no shortage of them available. Yes, I know comparing the Bolt and Model 3 is an apples and oranges comparison. I get it.

Secondly, we're nowhere near the $35,000 real-world price that was promised, and it looks like it's going to be a long time until that's the case.

Thirdly, the Model 3 will soon no longer be the only game in town in terms of a reasonably affordable long-range (200+ mile) EV. It ceased to be that when the Bolt came out. At this point, I'm not asking for a refund, but I'm honestly not sure what I'm going to do when I finally do get my configuration invite. At this point, I'm not in critical need of a third vehicle in the household. I sold one of my other ICE cars in anticipation of the Model 3, in retrospect, somewhat naïvely thinking I would get it "any day now."

Now, I see announcements of the Hyundai Kona EV and Kia Niro EV. Both of those would fit my needs fine, and I find them more aesthetically pleasing that the somewhat awkward-looking Bolt. However, even my initial revulsion to the Bolt's styling has subdued somewhat. I no longer "hate" it. I still think it's awkward-looking, but I'm to the point where I'd consider it as a daily driver, regardless of styling.

I know none of the vehicles I've mentioned have that status or performance of the Model 3. But I'm to the point where I no longer care about having the "newest, shiniest" thing on the road. If I wanted that, I should have stood in line first day, which I didn't. But considering all of the quality issues I've heard about on the early-run models, I'm not sure I would have wanted one. I'm going to give it until mid-summer 2018 to see if I get my invite. If August '18 comes and goes and still no invite, at that point, I think I'm probably going to ask for my money back.

I'm still a believer in Tesla's mission and what Elon is doing advancing technology in multiple industries. However, I think his showmanship gets him in trouble sometimes in terms of over-promising and under-delivering. I wish he'd be a little more realistic in the timeline goals he announces.

I wonder how much the ending of the $7,500 tax break will affect the sale of the Model 3, and EVs in the coming years.

As long as EVs' price tag are higher than an equivalent ICE vehicule,
there will be not too much motivation for the general public for getting an EV instead of an ICE.

EV Drivers Push to Lift Cap on Electric Car Tax Credit - Plug In America

S.2256 - 115th Congress (2017-2018): Tax Extender Act of 2017

 

[cwerdna]

Gotta love with the disagrees on my post (310). Here's some more supporting info.

Here are the high # of DU replacement cases I know of on Model S:
Drive Unit Replacement Poll
6th drive unit replacement and more
Drive Unit Replacement Poll
Edmunds went thru 3 DU replacements: 2013 Tesla Model S Long-Term Wrap-Up | Edmunds

Examples of Model X FWD problems:
Driver side Falcon wing door hinge snapping when opening
Driver side Falcon wing door hinge snapping when opening
Crunch! Falcon Wing Doors fail to sense obstacle
Falcon wing scratching and scuffing other parts

Falcon wing scratching and scuffing other parts - this guy isn't the only one on TMC with a ton of probs
Falcon wing scratching and scuffing other parts
Falcon wing scratching and scuffing other parts
Falcon wing scratching and scuffing other parts
Falcon wing scratching and scuffing other parts

So sad. . .the X is going back to service center :(

Paint scuffs under falcon wing door from rubbing
Falcon wing door and paint damage

$2700 to fix MCU. Might DIY, but how much to reprogram new unit?
He's also been thru numerous DUs: $2700 to fix MCU. Might DIY, but how much to reprogram new unit?.

Googling for these will turn up Model S door handle issues:
site:teslamotorsclub.com door handle failure
site:teslamotorsclub.com door handle failed

If these things are happening this early on, esp. on Model X when Tesla's footing the bill due to warranty, what's to guarantee all this stuff will be particularly reliable after warranty? Automakers have some financial incentive to at least have systems not be too failure-prone within warranty. Too much warranty work can add up and erode and wipe out profits on vehicle.

 

[djplong]

Yeah, I feel the frustration of the delays and waiting.

But I keep this in mind... When you're doing something nobody has ever done before, it's hard to even MAKE a schedule for it becuase nobody's ever done THAT before, either!

 

[N5329K]

Ha.

Agreed. A few examples:
- at least 3 folks here on TMC w/Model S that are on at least their 7th or 8th drive unit and many others having had multiple replacmeents
- the disastrous FWDs on the Model X
- the sometimes problematic front doors on the X (example at Major Model X Fail, Videos and Pictures)
- still seeing reports of DU failures on all Tesla models
- $700+ door handles on the S
- terrible Model X reliability (as seen by so many reports here besides being dead last 10 Least Reliable Cars and a large # of issues within 20 months and under 25K miles at 2016 Tesla Model X Long-Term Road Test - Wrap-Up)
- half shafts Clunking sound is costing me a bundle to fix out of warranty and numerous replacements on the X at Acceleration Shudder
- costly MCU replacements on the S

Once Teslas go out of warranty, I suspect some of the probs will continue and be costly to fix outside of warranty.

I've pointed out automotive reliability and durability testing, to which that thread is crickets.

If you take a reasonably large set of Teslas (say 100+) and compare to the same # of known reliable Toyota and/or Honda models over the long term, I know which I'd put my $ on.

A fair reader can't disagree with those facts. One thing I could not go along with, though, was the "putting my dollars on Honda/Toyota." Yes, you can buy a car from either one that will be more reliable than a Tesla. But until they start selling a serious EV, I won't give them a cent, much less thousands. I have my charging station installed. I don't want another ICE car. And so I will keep the current fleet going until someone offers a viable (for our needs) alternative.
Robin

 

[Dan Detweiler]

No denying there are some owners that have experienced issues with their cars over the years. There have also been Model 3 owners that have had issues. However, let's keep in mind that cars are very much like politics in the sense that the people that are pleased are never the most vocal. The tens of thousands of thrilled consumers aren't the ones that are going to be flooding social media and public forums with their experiences. "Misery loves company" and "Squeaky wheel gets the grease" are two cliches that come to mind.

No doubt there have been issues but I believe the VAST majority of owners are overall very happy with their Tesla. They understand that concerns will always be a part of any automotive purchase and will weigh all aspects of ownership before rendering an opinion. Hence, with a very few exceptions, it is usually only the people with particularly unusually bad builds (very rare and Tesla has been very good at addressing those rare cases), unusually unrealistic expectations, or people with an ax to grind that feel the need to be overly vocal about it. Not a popular opinion I know, especially for those with a negative opinion about something.

Dan

 

[dhrivnak]

I don't care what logic anyone uses. The EV will come in cheaper for repairs over the lifetime of the vehicle.

While I hope this is true and it has been true for my Volt and my Neighbor’s Leaf I cant say it has been true for my Tesla. I am hoping the Model 3 will be better but only time will tell.

 

[sitter_k]

No denying there are some owners that have experienced issues with their cars over the years. There have also been Model 3 owners that have had issues. However, let's keep in mind that cars are very much like politics in the sense that the people that are pleased are never the most vocal. The tens of thousands of thrilled consumers aren't the ones that are going to be flooding social media and public forums with their experiences. "Misery loves company" and "Squeaky wheel gets the grease" are two cliches that come to mind.

No doubt there have been issues but I believe the VAST majority of owners are overall very happy with their Tesla. They understand that concerns will always be a part of any automotive purchase and will weigh all aspects of ownership before rendering an opinion. Hence, with a very few exceptions, it is usually only the people with particularly unusually bad builds (very rare and Tesla has been very good at addressing those rare cases), unusually unrealistic expectations, or people with an ax to grind that feel the need to be overly vocal about it. Not a popular opinion I know, especially for those with a negative opinion about something.

Dan

I have my doubt to whether the hundreds of thousands of model 3 owners will be treated the same way. Everyday Tesla moves away from the altruistic customer service car company we have grown to love to reassembling the ICE incumbents. Has service infrastructure grown enough? Is reliability much more improved?

 

[daniel]

I wonder how much the ending of the $7,500 tax break will affect the sale of the Model 3, and EVs in the coming years.

As long as EVs' price tag are higher than an equivalent ICE vehicule,
there will be not too much motivation for the general public for getting an EV instead of an ICE.

Some people will have to cancel their Model 3 reservation because they depended on the tax credit to be able to afford it. Some will cancel because, though they could afford it, it's not worth it to them at that price. Others will want the car badly enough to pay what they have to.

It is true that the majority of the public will not pay more for an EV than they'd have to pay for an equivalent ICE car. But given the size of the overall car market, the EV car makers could not meet the demand were this not the case. The first buyers, the early adopters, will be people who are enamored of the concept. The more people see EVs on the road and get used to the idea that they are cleaner, quieter, have better acceleration, need less maintenance, and cost less to "re-fuel," the more they'll come to see EVs as a viable alternative. And they'll gradually start to accept EVs and buy them, perhaps at first to replace a commuter car that never needs to make a long road trip.

Something like this happened with the 2004 Prius: There was a lot of general public resistance to the idea of hybrid cars. They had that big old battery that people didn't trust and there was a mountain of FUD being pushed around. As late as 2007 one guy was telling me that Prius batteries were failing in droves (not true) and that Prius owners were dumping them in such numbers that Toyota couldn't sell them. This, also was not true. There were still long waiting lists for them and you could not find a used one. I don't know where he got these ideas, or if he was lying on purpose because he owned a car dealership that didn't sell Toyotas.

The point is that adoption of a new technology is gradual and the ability of an industry to produce it increases gradually, and if all goes well, those two slopes will rise in step with each other.

The end of the tax credit will affect demand but will not kill the industry. Tesla will continue to sell every car it can build for some years to come. As will Nissan and GM. The only thing that could hurt Tesla is a poor record for quality. Those reports worry me, but my hope is that, being a small percentage of overall cars, my chances of getting hit are small, and Tesla is genuinely concerned about its customers and will work hard to improve the quality of its cars.

(Now, if my Model 3 quits half-way to Canada, or in the middle of my trip, and I'm stranded, I might get upset enough to turn my view of the company 180°. <Knock on wood!>

 

[SomeJoe7777]

Gotta love with the disagrees on my post (310). Here's some more supporting info.

I think if you browse any car manufacturer's forum, there are a number of people with horror stories. Take a peek at the Leaf forums and try to count the number of threads on battery degredation for example.

People who don't have a horror story don't flock to the forums to create a gigantic thread about how everythings A-OK. You can't get a true picture of reliability from forums and social media.

Now, having said that, has Tesla had some true design issues? Yes. However, have they fixed them? Take the drive units ... nearly without exception, every failed drive unit is one of the large units (used as the rear motor in the 60, 70 75, 85, 90, P85D, P90D, P100D) and generally is limited to the earlier versions. On this forum, there are a single-digit number of people who have reported a failure on a small drive unit (used as the rear motor on the 60D, 75D, 85D, 90D, 100D, and as the front motor on all D vehicles).

I have a 2015 85D with 64,000 miles on it. Both drive units are the originals. I have never had a door handle replaced. No issues with my MCU.

I just got my Model 3 last week -- no issues on delivery (with the exception of a few software bugs).

I think we also need to objectively assess the actions and behavior of the other manufacturers that you're comparing Tesla against. You know, the ones with ignition switch failures that resulted in 124 deaths, exploding airbags resulting in 9 deaths, intentionally engineered software to violate emissions requirements, just to name a few. So let's keep the scratched and scuffed doors in perspective, yes?