LR AWD Waiting Room

[mnml]

Me too! Same spec.

Mind sharing the last 5 digits of your order number? Mine is 71554

Mine is 71085.

 

[Balaji]

Order day 10/16 same specs - order number 64630
Looks like lot of people are ordering ...
based on reading what you all have written
I have accepted that I am only getting the car in December 1st week

 

[dandrewk]

Order day 10/16 same specs - order number 64630
Looks like lot of people are ordering ...
based on reading what you all have written
I have accepted that I am only getting the car in December 1st week

The combination of the FSD increase on 12/1 and the change to 6-10 week delivery probably spurred many to order right away. But I think the biggest factor is the massive decrease in deposit. It's a ton easier to fork over $100 than $2500 regardless of refund availability. "Let's order now and decide when we get a VIN."

Likewise, there will be tons more declining or postponing delivery. My understanding is Tesla won't "hold" a car if your name comes up, but you will go back into the queue without losing position. I don't know how many times a buyer can do that before they lose their deposit.

From reading here, it's pretty clear the 2-3 week delivery was doubtful towards the end of last quarter. 6-10 weeks was more likely. I'm hoping the 6-10 week time frame is conservative following the "Don't make promises you can't keep" rule... especially true with the year end approaching.

Tesla delivered 80,000 Model 3's last quarter. Let's hope they can maintain that or maybe bump it up like they did last year.

 

[dandrewk]

Model 3 production tracker:

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[jonquiljo]

Mine is 71085.

Thats for an order date of 10/18 -right?

Mine is 52515 for a 10-11 order.

I would guess that lots of orders are being generated as the new $100 deposit really will let everyone order- even those far from serious. Tesla must understand that this would happen. Its a question of how they deal with it in December.

 

[mnml]

Thats for an order date of 10/18 -right?

Mine is 52515 for a 10-11 order.

I would guess that lots of orders are being generated as the new $100 deposit really will let everyone order- even those far from serious. Tesla must understand that this would happen. Its a question of how they deal with it in December.

Yes, 10/18.

 

[Balaji]

Looks like 4000 orders a day ... isn’t it a lot ?
Tesla sells just less than 100,000 a quarter
Is tesla going to have a huge quarter .. does this mean buy tesla stock ???

 

[Jeff1985]

Order placed 10/19.
LR/AWD black/black, aero wheels.

IMO, Tesla will increase deposit after earnings season is over. That or they didn’t realize it was only $100.

 

[dandrewk]

Looks like 4000 orders a day ... isn’t it a lot ?
Tesla sells just less than 100,000 a quarter
Is tesla going to have a huge quarter .. does this mean buy tesla stock ???

The number of Model 3's delivered last quarter was 80,000, the rest are Model S and X. But 80,000 is a massive quantity, and it's been going up every quarter.

By comparison, in 2018 the numbers were 55,000 for third quarter and 63,000 in the fourth.

 

[dandrewk]

Order placed 10/19.
LR/AWD black/black, aero wheels.

IMO, Tesla will increase deposit after earnings season is over. That or they didn’t realize it was only $100.

Mind sharing the last five digits of your confirmation number? A couple here (including me) ordered on the 18th.

 

[jonquiljo]

Mind sharing the last five digits of your confirmation number? A couple here (including me) ordered on the 18th.

The numbers compute to 2650 a day or about 80,000 a month - worldwide. That's a lot of cars compared to previous orders. The new $100 non-refundable deposit contributed to it. I guess they are willing to risk less committed orders if they can show far more orders than delivery capability.

I guess Tesla execs saw a lot of people sitting on the fence, so they got people to order! The $100 deposit (I think) is USA only. Prepare for a zoo come Q4 end, unless Tesla figures out a way to build and deliver these things faster.

Even with a 10-11 order, I am not sure I will be getting one in 2019. Shortly after Tesla raised their delivery times to 6-8 weeks for all Model 3's (other than Performance), they extended them even further to 6-10 weeks. There's a big difference between 6 and 10 weeks. It all depends on when they start production again for N. America.

 

[Balaji]

That is well said ..
the day after I ordered the cost dropped to $100
Also one has to factor which part of USA you live in for delivery logistic ... 200 miles around me there is not even a single inventory car

 

[Chewbach]

Surely they will do what it takes to deliver on commitments to US customers before the tax credit expires, right?

 

[Chewbach]

And my reservation number is 53191, ordered the morning of 10/12. Specs: White, LR AWD, Black Interior, 19” Wheels, FSD. No VIN. Yet, I’m still managing to spend way too much on accessories.

 

[pookgai]

71955. Ordered on 10/19

 

[dandrewk]

Even with a 10-11 order, I am not sure I will be getting one in 2019. Shortly after Tesla raised their delivery times to 6-8 weeks for all Model 3's (other than Performance), they extended them even further to 6-10 weeks. There's a big difference between 6 and 10 weeks. It all depends on when they start production again for N. America.

Luckily, the actual backlog isn't 80,000, else the lead time would be three months, minimum. There is no way to tell what their backlog is, but they did mention an increase in orders toward the end of the 3rd qtr.

I ordered on the 18th. Ten weeks from that date is Dec. 27th. Cutting it real close, for sure. But I think you should be ok. And Tesla is well aware of the impending tax credit deadline. Our best hope is 6-10 weeks is a conservative estimation. But then again, Tesla doesn't have a sterling reputation for meeting promises.

 

[dandrewk]

Surely they will do what it takes to deliver on commitments to US customers before the tax credit expires, right?

Indeed, and hopefully it will be same result of last year:

Plus Musk offered a pre-Christmas bonus with a promise to "cover the tax credit difference" for anyone who was supposed to get a car delivered by the end of December, but through no fault of their own missed the date.

.
From Want a Tesla? Buy it before the $7,500 tax credit cuts in half.

I take this to mean that if buyers do their part and order now with a promise of 10 weeks, maximum, then the same deal -might- apply this year. That's a pretty big "if", but then again it's a much smaller number.

They also allowed anyone to come to their Fremont plant and get a car right off the line in order to meet the deadline. That saves a few days of delivery lead time.

 

[dandrewk]

And my reservation number is 53191, ordered the morning of 10/12. Specs: White, LR AWD, Black Interior, 19” Wheels, FSD. No VIN. Yet, I’m still managing to spend way too much on accessories.

Congrats!

About the only accessory that I'm interested in (at this point) is the Qi charger, which can hold two phones. My wife, a Pokemon Go addict, will love that feature.

 

[jonquiljo]

If we order in October, we should get a delivery. Tesla lies too much to its customers. In a year they will need customer loyalty in a big way.

 

[Jerm2006]

Ordered my White Model 3 Thursday. There is still hope because I have a delivery date of this coming week already. I am so excited and my local rep has been great.