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Lurking on Tesla Short/Bear Websites

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Jackl1956, Oct 28, 2014.

  1. Jackl1956

    Jackl1956 Member

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    More and more I realize that the Bear attacks/Short selling will continue to grow and intensify. That said, I would like to begin lurking on their websites to anticipate their attacks (timing my future buys). Any advice on sites to peruse?
     
  2. jhm

    jhm Active Member

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    For sighting bears in their natual habitat, Seeking Alpha comes to mind.
     
  3. Bunky

    Bunky Member

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    Indeed. Maybe an idea to consider author's rather than site's themselves.

    A couple come to mind - Paulo Santos (seeking alpha), Anton Wahlman (the Street). Also the website 247 Wall st usually has a factually incorrect negative spin on most or all of their TSLA articles.

    These are not the best places to find genuinely feasible Bear theses but when all the Bears have is to spread misinformation then I see that as a positive indicator.
     
  4. 30seconds

    30seconds Active Member

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    follow Realist on twitter
     
  5. Theshadows

    Theshadows Active Member

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    Just read John Peterson's articles.

    Umm. He's been pretty quiet lately.
     
  6. Johan

    Johan Took a TSLA bear test. Came back negative.

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    NYT. WSJ. Other mainstream, ad financed media. Of course no way to stay ahead with these sources. Doug Kass on twitter and blog. Citron research.
     
  7. bsd

    bsd Member

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  8. SteveG3

    SteveG3 Active Member

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    seems anything owned by Rupert Murdoch (Wall Street Journal, Marketwatch, Barrons) is quick to go with negative spin. of course, there's Cory Johnson (at Bloomberg) as well.
     
  9. FrozenCanuck

    FrozenCanuck Member

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    Another bear who seems to spend all of his time reading and then twisting into Tesla FUD is Mark B Spiegel on Twitter and uses handle "Logical Thought" on seeking alpha. He post so much nonsense and continually accuses Musk of being a liar. I highly suggest reading what he writes to be on top of the best FUD out there.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I almost forgot another guy who constantly manufactures Tesla garbage: Bertel Schmidd - very actually be on Twitter and he posts stuff at DailyKanban.com

    He loves to cherry pick and make straw man arguments.
     
  10. 32no

    32no Member

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    The List Of Tesla Bears

    Oooh. I have a few good ones.

    Mark B. Speigel (Logical Thought) likes to write FUD on Seeking Alpha and tweet FUD on Twitter, and he sometimes retweets FUD from two of his bear friends. We all know he is part of a hedge fund that is short Tesla. Here is his Seeking Alpha page, and here is his twitter.

    Realist has an inverted Tesla logo as his profile picture on twitter and his handle is @TeslaAgnostic. He has a twitter and I'm pretty sure he is hmpfff on Seeking Alpha.

    Bertel Schmitt loves to post Tesla FUD on Twitter and Daily Kanban.

    Anton Wahlman is famous for irrelevant comparisons that pretty much boil down to "Look at this Honda Civic with better features than Tesla!". Here is his seeking alpha page and he also writes for the street (his profile).

    Ok, the next one is a real doozy. Alberto Zaragoza Comendador is quite the character, he writes that pretty much everything Tesla does is a hoax or fraud, and the largest of which is the battery swap. He has a blog which is really extreme, and a seeking alpha page.

    John Peterson used to be quite active, but he is not worth linking to because he has kept his mouth shut about Tesla for a while.

    Most of us know Paulo Santos, here is his twitter (which doesn't have much about Tesla) and his seeking alpha page.

    Some honorary mentions are various users who often comment on Seeking Alpha (in no particular order):

    tomfrompv
    Frank Greenlaugh
    Cparmerlee
    Davewmart
    chipdoctor
    Tales From The Future
    pot pie
    user 7369811
    I need a bailout
    solucky
    tippydog
    slevental
    Robert Duval
    Occam's_Razor
    kimboslice

    I think it is important to keep tabs on the short thesis, and it is important to know their arguments, because if you are hesitant about any one of their arguments, you probably should reevaluate your long position in Tesla.
     
  11. techmaven

    techmaven Active Member

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    32no, that's quite a list. I'm sure quite a few those people are proud to make your list.

    As far as timing goes, these shorts have no additional information and are likely slower to the data than we are here. Their arguments are worth exploring though if you are not familiar with them. I started in November of 2013 by dissecting John Petersen's arguments and I found that he wrote in a very convincing manner using sources that seemed reputable. However, he was banking on people being lazy and not actually looking up the sources of information and dissecting them which is unfortunately, usually true. Essentially, he was very good a cherry picking information and weaving a good story around it but in the end, wove specious arguments.
     
  12. FrozenCanuck

    FrozenCanuck Member

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    32no - very good list! I'd like to see more folks on Twitter busting the FUD some of these guys post.

    With thy respect to Anton, I know a lot of people can't stand what he writes but I will at least acknowledge he does not lie and he sometimes writes about the bull case such as the SC network. He just doesn't look at valuation the way I do, i.e. strange comparisons to cheaper gas cars and market cap to number of cars sold stuff. I think he is wrong but I don't consider him anywhere near the company of Spiegel, Schmitt, and other guys.

    Tweet away when you see Tesla FUD
     
  13. MSMike

    MSMike Member

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    Thanks for this thread. IDing the obvious shorts is a good start yet there are the wolves in sheep's clothing. Some posts on the Tesla Motors Forums need to be watched also. Particularly the titles of the threads and number of them to make things appear bad. These trolls work as a team also, bad cop, good cop creating an issue out of a non-issue. The Forum is open to all. Probably some are already aware of this.
    I wonder if anyone sees a short squeeze possibility near term.

    I joined this club only recently but have a P85 approaching 20k miles. The most awesome car with super high quality. Even small issues were corrected immediately by the SC.
     
  14. FrozenCanuck

    FrozenCanuck Member

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    We have another bear to add to the list. Some criminal names Sam E Antar. He is on Twitter under this name and is apparently a white collar criminal ex CFO who committed various security fraud crimes. It's all self disclosed on his profile. Anyway he supposedly does forensic accounting now and he's harassing Elon via Twitter. He talks a lot of **** but as far as I can see he has posted zero actual data to support the idea that a Tesla has done anything wrong on the accounting.

    I know my way around financial statements and have a very strong background here. I think the guy is totally full of it. Interested to see what others here find.
     
  15. Noble Ninja

    Noble Ninja Member

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    #15 Noble Ninja, Jan 5, 2015
    Last edited: Jan 5, 2015
    Specifically to SeekingAlpha, I completely agree with you on this list, great job.

    Also add Andreas Hopf to the list. He is such a try-hard FUDster that it's hilarious (only occasionally posts on TSLA, a lot more FUD on BBRY).

    Logical Thought should really change his name to ILLOGICAL thought as his arguments are baseless and are so twisted they don't even make sense anymore. Cparmarlee is the most ridiculous, calling Elon Musk a big liar and manipulative salesman, cherry-picking facts and twisting them to the point of pure humor. I only now read SeekingAlpha for the humor, 100% of which come from short investors.

    Also, when TSLA tested the $200 level and intra-day dipped to $194, within 30-minutes of market open, SA felt this was "news report" worthy and published this, garnering over 200 comments:
    http://seekingalpha.com/news/2181025-tesla-motors-tests-the-water-below-200

    The vast majority of the comments were from shorts and FUDsters desperately trying so hard to break down this $200 psychological support. Despite all the fear-mongering, it was actually a big sign of a bottom when shorts become the loudest (we rallied back up from here within that week, nullifying the whole point of publishing this "news report" and 200 comments of "debate", which were all for nothing).
     
  16. tftf

    tftf Member

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    #16 tftf, Jan 5, 2015
    Last edited: Jan 5, 2015
    Just curious, is anything negative, even slightly negative, in regards to Tesla, just considered and labelled 'FUD' now without looking at the actual arguments and assumptions the person is making?

    For example, I recently discussed that the Model 3 could be late in my opinion with its introduction likely pushed back to 2018-2020 (i.e. Tesla won't make Model 3 sales by 2017 or otherwise would likely hike the $30-35k base price, see the Future Cars thread in this forum for more details).

    I also discussed back in 2014 on SA that the Model X will likely be delayed into 2015. I got many replies at the time that this was pure 'FUD'. The late 2015 date is now confirmed, maybe it will even slip further...

    Same for my predictions and articles in late 2013 on SA that the Gigafactory will at least take 2-3 years until completion and cost at least $5 billion when including the Model 3 car tooling. That was also called 'FUD'...

    Some Tesla bulls should maybe consider not to immediately dismiss any criticism concerning the company, the stock price or Tesla execs as 'FUD'.

    PS: If some readers don't know: tftf = Tales From The Future. I won't post further comments for now.
     
  17. chickensevil

    chickensevil Active Member

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    TFTF, I have said before you are one of the more sensible shorts out there. Negative comments are not immediately called out as FUD.

    While FUD is common amidst Shorts, not all negative things about Tesla is baseless. I would prefer arguing with you about most of your comments since you at least tend to provide an interesting perspective... Even if I don't always agree with you.
     
  18. techmaven

    techmaven Active Member

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    No, not at all. Matter of fact, this forum has plenty of people criticizing all sorts of Tesla and Tesla product related topics. Many of the people here thought long and hard about both the company and the products before committing large sums of money for the products. It is a very different dynamic and while there is fanboism, I find the bears on any number of forums that discuss Tesla to be far more fervent and committed to thier biases, in no doubt fueled by the monetary bets they have already made. Cherry picking facts to try to prove a negative narrative is far too abundant. On Seeking Alpha, the bears are the ones running amok. Here, we have dissected so many of the Tesla related topics at extreme depth and so it is easy to be more dismissive of portly thought out negatives since, well, you can go through the hundreds of pages of archives.
     
  19. 32no

    32no Member

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    TFTF,

    Get real. Tesla has a large fan base, and what some call FUD, others agree that it is a legitimate concern. When anyone spots what they think is FUD, they call it out right away, and that person isn't always representative of the community as a whole.

    On another note, I think its unreasonable to expect Model 3 to be delayed so much. The most Tesla ever delayed anything was 2 years with the Model X, and the Model 3 was originally supposed to come in 2015, now its 2017.
     
  20. chickensevil

    chickensevil Active Member

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    When was it supposed to come in 2015? I don't remember this? In regard to delays my window is actually hopeful of a late 2016 launch and planning for a late 2018 launch. Any later than that and I fear what the competition will finally have time to cook up. By that point Tesla needs the Model 3 to keep competition on their toes because by that point we are expected to have at least one if not two "model S" competitors.

    Anyway, just my two cents. And I thought that the Model S largely launched on time... The issue was ramping up for more than just like 10 hand made cars a week (yeah the first few cars were practically made as if they were one off designs). I think at most it was delayed by 6 months. Unless I am totally having terrible memory. It has been a good three years, haha!
     

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