Three reasons why electric autos will not be able to replace combustion engine vehicles for at least a few decades:
1. Economic issues. The government can provide startup capital to risky industries like venture capitalists, and can also provide manufacturing and consumption subsidies. However, government subsidies have a certain ceiling – thousands of cars? Yes. Millions? Definitely no.
2. Scientific issues. I believe electric cars do not necessarily generate less pollution than traditional internal combustion engine cars. We need to focus on the carbon footprint of the entire industry chain (from wellhead to wheels) instead of carbon emissions from driving (from fuel tank to wheels). If only the latter is considered, undoubtedly electric cars are more environmental friendly. But if we take battery production and recycling into consideration, carbon emissions in the electric car industry chain are just marginally lower than that of internal combustion engine cars. In China, where power generation mainly relies on coal, electric cars do not have any particular environmental advantages as the recycling of electric cars/batteries still involves carbon emissions. Just think about the law of conservation of energy.
3. Political issues. A nation needs to align the interests of multiple parties, e.g., state-owned enterprises, private enterprises, consumers, and local governments if it intends to drive the development of the electric car industry. One example would be the postponement of the implementation of China IV standards, which can be largely attributed to the difficulty in aligning the various interests. The electric car industry involves many interested parties, making any interest alignment more difficult. I believe the government may invest equal effort into initiatives with less resistance, e.g., public transit development, which is also a way to considerably reduce carbon emissions and improve people’s transport experience.
Electric cars will remain a niche
1. Economic issues. The government can provide startup capital to risky industries like venture capitalists, and can also provide manufacturing and consumption subsidies. However, government subsidies have a certain ceiling – thousands of cars? Yes. Millions? Definitely no.
2. Scientific issues. I believe electric cars do not necessarily generate less pollution than traditional internal combustion engine cars. We need to focus on the carbon footprint of the entire industry chain (from wellhead to wheels) instead of carbon emissions from driving (from fuel tank to wheels). If only the latter is considered, undoubtedly electric cars are more environmental friendly. But if we take battery production and recycling into consideration, carbon emissions in the electric car industry chain are just marginally lower than that of internal combustion engine cars. In China, where power generation mainly relies on coal, electric cars do not have any particular environmental advantages as the recycling of electric cars/batteries still involves carbon emissions. Just think about the law of conservation of energy.
3. Political issues. A nation needs to align the interests of multiple parties, e.g., state-owned enterprises, private enterprises, consumers, and local governments if it intends to drive the development of the electric car industry. One example would be the postponement of the implementation of China IV standards, which can be largely attributed to the difficulty in aligning the various interests. The electric car industry involves many interested parties, making any interest alignment more difficult. I believe the government may invest equal effort into initiatives with less resistance, e.g., public transit development, which is also a way to considerably reduce carbon emissions and improve people’s transport experience.
Electric cars will remain a niche
