M3 SR+ or M3 LR if you were planning to drive LOTS of miles...

[Physicslawyer]

The thread linked previously above helps a lot as any financial output is only as good as the inputs Good to know your education background (I'm a licensed CPA) as unfortunately a lot of people come onto forums like these talking finance with quite literally zero financial skills so it's hard to know who you are talking to a lot of times. Glad to know you've done some real number crunching already!

I think I must still be missing something though.

If your $1,633 a month for the MYP is a fixed cost with no maintenance or charging expenses and you can get a new one every 12k miles, why would you be concerned with battery degradation? And why would you want or even need another vehicle?

There is no financial savings in owning/leasing 2 vehicles over 1 vehicle. In fact you have to pay $1,633 every month regardless of how much or how little you use the MYP. So I'm not sure how buying another vehicle (M3 RWD) to keep wear and tear off a vehicle you don't own (MYP) makes sense.

If the discussion is "keep my corporate fleet MYP" OR "buy a new M3 RWD", well that is an entirely separate cost benefit analysis which based on how much you drive could still lean in favor of the MYP.

Female, JD/MBA (lawyer/finance), now a math and physics teacher (early "retirement" gig)

I would be concerned about battery degradation if I bought the MYP instead of doing this monthly payment fleet situation. I have been able to see the effect on the battery of my heavy useage without having to own the specific car. Initially, I had a MYP on order, but I waited too long and lost the order (my fault, waiting on 4680 and a nonexistent tax credit). My plan was to drive it 15k/yr. I can see now that I would drive it like my Prius, and would have 50k vs 15k miles per year. I like it too much!

I would have a $850 payment (assuming $7000 tax and downpayment) for the M3 RWD. Tires are less expensive and I would mostly charge at home. I would prefer a M3 LR (or a MYP), but I would be buying it for the LFP battery and trying a "running it into the ground" experiment. I could write them a check, but I'm putting the finance numbers to compare this to what I currently have.

If I did this, I would get the MYP for two months a year, not 12 (for the summer).

OR, I keep on paying $1600 monthly for a MYP. I can afford it, but it seems crazy paying 20k a year to do this, when I could pay $47k for a Tesla to run into the ground where the break even is a little over two years and it should last theoretically much longer because of the LFP.

 

[Jeremy3292]

Female, JD/MBA (lawyer/finance), now a math and physics teacher (early "retirement" gig)

I would be concerned about battery degradation if I bought the MYP instead of doing this monthly payment fleet situation. I have been able to see the effect on the battery of my heavy useage without having to own the specific car. Initially, I had a MYP on order, but I waited too long and lost the order (my fault, waiting on 4680 and a nonexistent tax credit). My plan was to drive it 15k/yr. I can see now that I would drive it like my Prius, and would have 50k vs 15k miles per year. I like it too much!

I would have a $850 payment (assuming $7000 tax and downpayment) for the M3 RWD. Tires are less expensive and I would mostly charge at home. I would prefer a M3 LR, but I would be buying it for the LFP battery and trying a "running it into the ground" experiment. I could write them a check, but I'm putting the finance numbers to compare this to what I currently have.

If I did this, I would get the MYP for two months a year, not 12 (for the summer).

OR, I keep on paying $1600 monthly for a MYP. I can afford it, but it seems crazy paying 20k a year to do this, when I could pay $47k for a Tesla to run into the ground over two years and it should last theoretically much longer because of the LFP.

Ok gotcha thanks for the in depth information. I see what you are getting at now. I agree that there is a initial sticker shock of paying $1,600+ a month in perpetuity. Leasing vehicles generally never makes good financial sense over purchasing, but you have a special situation that warrants appropriate discourse.

With your special fleet deal, you can drive as many miles as you want, get a new car basically any time you want, and pay $0 in maintenance or charging costs. Those are some really nice perks that differ from someone who just leases a vehicle like normal.

It seems like the math would favor the M3 RWD over the MYP. Financing is expensive currently (4.24% at Tesla) whereas I financed my M3 LR in Sept 2021 for 2.09% at BOA. So purchasing outright could be a better option as long as cash flow is not an issue.

My caveat though is that one of your stated objectives was to avoid the service center as much as possible. With the MYP you certainly would never have to go. But if you purchase a M3 RWD, you will at the very minimum have to go somewhere for new tires every ~40k miles. That's every few months based on how much you drive. 4 tires installed is around $1,000-$1,200 for an M3 RWD depending on what tires you get too. I think your breakeven point is more like 3 years (or slightly more) due to charging costs and maintenance costs on the M3 RWD.

So we end up with a question on whether convenience (MYP) is more important to you than saving a few dollars (M3 RWD).

 

[Physicslawyer]

Ok gotcha thanks for the in depth information. I see what you are getting at now. I agree that there is a initial sticker shock of paying $1,600+ a month in perpetuity. Leasing vehicles generally never makes good financial sense over purchasing, but you have a special situation that warrants appropriate discourse.

With your special fleet deal, you can drive as many miles as you want, get a new car basically any time you want, and pay $0 in maintenance or charging costs. Those are some really nice perks that differ from someone who just leases a vehicle like normal.

It seems like the math would favor the M3 RWD over the MYP. Financing is expensive currently (4.24% at Tesla) whereas I financed my M3 LR in Sept 2021 for 2.09% at BOA. So purchasing outright could be a better option as long as cash flow is not an issue.

My caveat though is that one of your stated objectives was to avoid the service center as much as possible. With the MYP you certainly would never have to go. But if you purchase a M3 RWD, you will at the very minimum have to go somewhere for new tires every ~40k miles. That's every few months based on how much you drive. 4 tires installed is around $1,000-$1,200 for an M3 RWD depending on what tires you get too. I think your breakeven point is more like 3 years (or slightly more) due to charging costs and maintenance costs on the M3 RWD.

So we end up with a question on whether convenience (MYP) is more important to you than saving a few dollars (M3 RWD).

Exactly. Tires are $700 at Tirerack or $1k at Costco, with a 50k mile warranty.

I would be pressing my luck with a high mileage Tesla, when I could effectively have a new one every few months. But, a M3 "should" be okay with the LFP.

Even a three year break even is fine. The car should theoretically last a long time based on LiFePO4 research. Lithium iron phosphate theoretically should last thousands of cycles longer and the whole not catching on fire as easily thing is nice..

As logical as I'm trying to be, I love the MYP sitting outside. It brings joy to my life. And, I could swap it for a M3P for a few months or any other Tesla. I'm also assuming they will have to raise the price of this. Prices are set through the end of 2022.

 

[RoBoRaT]

If it boils down to just the cost stated by OP, my question is, what do we have after 2 years of ownership (100K miles driven)?

$40K ($1600/month x 2 years) on MYP but nothing to show for at end of lease,

Or

$60.4K spent but may have $K used car value for the RWD M3 if sold after 2 years.

$54K RWD M3 ($47K + $7K) + $6.4K MYP use ($3.2K x 2 years) = $60.4K.

Forgive me if my math is all over the place...

 

[Physicslawyer]

The 7k would be $3500 down, $3500 tax. A white on white M3 RWD is $48k and 6% tax, $2880, so $50,880 if I wrote a check. That's 2.5 years of the MYP fleet deal and I have something at least in the end.

 

[Jeremy3292]

The 7k would be $3500 down, $3500 tax. A white on white M3 RWD is $48k and 6% tax, $2880, so $50,880 if I wrote a check. That's 2.5 years of the MYP fleet deal and I have something at least in the end.

I think it's more like 3 years. As a minimum baseline:

MYP: $1,633 x 36 months = $58,788
M3 RWD: $50,880 + ~$3,500 (3 sets of tires @ 50k miles each) = $54,380

That doesn't include any other maintenance costs like cabin air filters, brakes, brake fluid exchange, etc. Also 150k miles over 3 years is easily $5,000 in charging costs, even assuming all charging is done at home for a low price per kWh.

I don't think we discussed insurance costs at all either? I assume with the fleet deal insurance is included. If you own the car outright, insurance is on your own dime. That can easily be $2,000 a year which maybe hasn't been factored in yet...

Agreed that having some sort of salvage/resale value on the M3 RWD that you now own is definitely important.

 

[Physicslawyer]

I'm paying insurance separately at $100/month.

 

[jjrandorin]

As logical as I'm trying to be, I love the MYP sitting outside. It brings joy to my life

I think this statement you made here is at least as important as any of the "financial" ones on this topic. Especially when you have a long commute, liking / loving what you drive makes it much more tolerable.

Will you love the model 3 SR+ like you love the model Y? We have a model 3P and a Model Y P. The model 3 is my primary vehicle, and the model Y is my wifes. I still LOVE driving the model 3. I only "like" driving the model Y as I dont really love SUV type vehicles.

Conversely, my wife loves the model Y more than she did the BMW X3 M40 we custom ordered it replaced. She only likes driving the model 3 (she says its too low to the ground for her, and she feels more vulnerable and like she cant see anything).

If you like both equally thats one thing, but if you dont, when you have a long commute, driving what you love is important, if its possible anyway.

 

[Physicslawyer]

Good point. I might get a M3P for Sept/Oct and see if I like the M3 size.

 

[yesimon]

My main concern is having maximum longevity, which is why I would be okay with less range.

Going back to the original issue at hand, there's no question that M3 RWD LFP would be the best choice from the viewpoint of longevity and environmental sustainability. Given that you're driving 40k miles a year, supercharge a lot, and are okay with driving a Prius. An NCA battery will be EOL'd within 5 years (800 cycles). Supercharging doesn't harm LFP (might actually benefit). RWD will still be way faster than a Prius .

That being said it's extremely likely that a Model Y with CATL's M3P (confusing name) 72 kWh LFP battery will be offered soon, potentially by the end of 2022, if you prefer that size.

 

[Physicslawyer]

Going back to the original issue at hand, there's no question that M3 RWD LFP would be the best choice from the viewpoint of longevity and environmental sustainability. Given that you're driving 40k miles a year, supercharge a lot, and are okay with driving a Prius. An NCA battery will be EOL'd within 5 years (800 cycles). Supercharging doesn't harm LFP (might actually benefit). RWD will still be way faster than a Prius .

That being said it's extremely likely that a Model Y with CATL's M3P (confusing name) 72 kWh LFP battery will be offered soon, potentially by the end of 2022, if you prefer that size.

I would absolutely get that MYP if it's offered by Tesla.