M3 suitability to my geography+requirements

[306cruiser]

I live in Saskatchewan, Canada, and it gets batshit cold in the winter. It can go down to -30 Celsius and stay there for 2 weeks in the deep of winter.

I drive every week between the cities of Saskatoon and Regina which are 260 kms apart.

About midway between these two cities is the town of Davidson, where Tesla is considering building a supercharger station.

I am considering buying the base M3. I like the M3 as an EV because it can accept a class 3 tow hitch and I occasionally tow a dirt bike to the local track. So it's light towing over maybe 40 kms, once a week in the summer.

The base model M3 has a 400 kms range.

My logic tells me that when the Davidson supercharger station is built, then even in the deepest winter cold, with a moderate 20kmph headwind, a fully charged base M3 should have no trouble reaching the Davidson supercharger station for a top up.

I am assuming winter range degradation of 50% even with a headwind.

I would keep the M3 for maybe 6 years. I am supposing a battery degradation at 120k kms + 6 years, of 30%, so 70% original capacity remaining.

So even in 6 years, my logic tells me, the base M3 should be able to get me to Regina and back to Saskatoon without issue.
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I'm asking here because I'd like to get your input. Consider the cold and a possible headwind. Assume that the cabin heater will be on to all hot about 80% of the trip. Do you think the M3 would suit me? Am I overlooking anything?

 

[brkaus]

Try abetterrouteplanner.com for your proposed trip(s)?

it has lots of dials to adjust for trip predictions.

Never count on a proposed supercharger. Not until you see the Tesla gear on the lot and construction started. Have a alternate plan.

 

[306cruiser]

Try abetterrouteplanner.com for your proposed trip(s)?

it has lots of dials to adjust for trip predictions.

Never count on a proposed supercharger. Not until you see the Tesla gear on the lot and construction started. Have a alternate plan.

Thank you very much for your reply.

The one highway that connects the two cities is the only highway. Between these two cities is basically rural towns. Abetterrouteplanner shows that one highway as the only route. Davidson is probably the only place a supercharger will show up.

I guess I'll have to wait to see if Tesla will actually build the charger station at Davidson then.

 

[Runt8]

Do you have a place to park it inside? You’re not supposed to leave it below -30° for longer than 24 hours.

 

[306cruiser]

Do you have a place to park it inside? You’re not supposed to leave it below -30° for longer than 24 hours.

I do have heated indoor parking in both towns.

I did not know that it shouldn't be left below -30 for longer than 24 hours and can't seem to find info on this. What happens and why?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I do have heated indoor parking in both towns.

I did not know that it shouldn't be left below -30 for longer than 24 hours and can't seem to find info on this. What happens and why?

No one knows, but it is in the Owner’s Manual (page 129).

https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/model_3_owners_manual_north_america_en.pdf

 

[TimothyHW3]

I do have heated indoor parking in both towns.

I did not know that it shouldn't be left below -30 for longer than 24 hours and can't seem to find info on this. What happens and why?

It is not good for the Li-ion batteries in general - Tesla uses the same batteries you find elsewhere. There are multiple case studies, just google them.

An SR+ in those conditions, at very slow speeds (what are the speeding limitations?), when brand new and 0 degradation, will probably give you around 210-230kms on full charge and almost using the full capacity (90%). SR without plus will probably not make the trip at all.

You might be able to barely make the trip with SR+ when brand new.

This guy averaged 300Wh/m, but I guess he luckied out as this seems low for the weather conditions. Maybe he drives really slow.

30% degradation does seem extreme, but it is not out of the ordinary if you get the SR and drive so much.
This will warrant you a new battery from Tesla if it does occur, so if you can manage to get it to 70% in 8 years you can start fresh and have the car for another 5-6 or so years.

If you have a supercharger in between you will make it with a 15 minutes stop, but I wouldn't get the car until they build it or you are positive you can charge at the destination to at least 90% to make the return trip. Or aim for the LR, that will be fine.

 

[eprosenx]

I live in Saskatchewan, Canada, and it gets batshit cold in the winter. It can go down to -30 Celsius and stay there for 2 weeks in the deep of winter.

I drive every week between the cities of Saskatoon and Regina which are 260 kms apart.

About midway between these two cities is the town of Davidson, where Tesla is considering building a supercharger station.

I am considering buying the base M3. I like the M3 as an EV because it can accept a class 3 tow hitch and I occasionally tow a dirt bike to the local track. So it's light towing over maybe 40 kms, once a week in the summer.

The base model M3 has a 400 kms range.

My logic tells me that when the Davidson supercharger station is built, then even in the deepest winter cold, with a moderate 20kmph headwind, a fully charged base M3 should have no trouble reaching the Davidson supercharger station for a top up.

I am assuming winter range degradation of 50% even with a headwind.

I would keep the M3 for maybe 6 years. I am supposing a battery degradation at 120k kms + 6 years, of 30%, so 70% original capacity remaining.

So even in 6 years, my logic tells me, the base M3 should be able to get me to Regina and back to Saskatoon without issue.
------------------

I'm asking here because I'd like to get your input. Consider the cold and a possible headwind. Assume that the cabin heater will be on to all hot about 80% of the trip. Do you think the M3 would suit me? Am I overlooking anything?

I suspect you will be happier with the LR. You don’t want to be taking the battery to 100% constantly (though I suspect once a week would not be a big deal) and you don’t want to run it all the way to zero.

If they build that supercharger it would give you a lot more options, but to me, I want to not be forced to stop every time at the same location (I may want to vary my meal/break stops).

I also like having “contingency” reserve battery capacity in the event the road is closed and I have to turn around, etc...

So it may be doable on a SR+ (without a doubt fine if they build the supercharger), but your comfort level and flexibility with an LR would be greater.

Do note that superchargers go down once in a while too... (power outages, etc...)

 

[jamnmon66]

Seems like you might be cutting it close on range. 50% lower than rated is a good estimate IMO. But you have very little margin for error especially without that proposed supercharger and when the battery degrades. Also, the more often you go to the extremes of state of charge (i.e below 10% or above 90%), the faster you'll wear out the battery.

Also, the heater uses a lot of battery. At those super low temps, I'd want the heater cranked for the whole trip. Again, I think your 50% estimate accounts for that but it's something to consider.

I think you run the risk of creating a stressful situation for yourself with the SR+. The LR sounds more appropriate and should make those regular trips relaxing, fun & stress free. But it's a lot more money. You'll have to decide whether it's worth it to you.

 

[ucmndd]

No. You don’t want a standard range 3 in a cold climate extreme. Full stop.

You already know this as you’re obviously trying to talk yourself into it. But really, you have selected the wrong tool for the job.

 

[Sophias_dad]

This will warrant you a new battery from Tesla if it does occur, so if you can manage to get it to 70% in 8 years you can start fresh and have the car for another 5-6 or so years.

My understanding is that the replacement battery would not be new, but rather able to satisfy the "at least 70% at the mileage/year limit".

I'd have a strong vote for an LR AWD in this position, then you don't need to worry about the supercharger's existence.

 

[KenC]

I'd think you'd wait until that mid-distance SC is built, and use ABRP for simulations with low temps, snow, etc.

 

[DigAdrenaline]

Buying a Tesla is like getting a salary. You always need a little more.

I have an S, not a 3. The people I know with 75s all wish they had bought 100s. I doubt it’s different with the 3s.

I live in Calgary and drive to Winnipeg pretty regularly. So I know your winters. 50% of rated range is totally reasonable in bad conditions. There are basically 3 factors. Cold, Wind, and snow accumulation on the road. People often forget the last one, but if you’re plowing through snow, it takes a lot more energy.

Buy the biggest battery you can afford. You will never regret that decision.

For winter travel, use the seat heaters rather than the vent heaters to stay warm. Add a blanket even. The difference is massive. And charge before your battery gets cold.

There are lots of good videos with advice on extending your range in winter. Watch them.

For people worried about battery degradation, my (Dec) 2017 Model S has ~100000 kms on it now, and I’m at 4% range loss. No worries.

 

[postersw]

A note on 'proposed' Superchargers. We have had a 'proposed' supercharger for Chelan, WA for years. It always says "coming soon". As other have said, I would never count on a supercharger appearing before it actually appears.

50% range reduction in Winter is not unreasonable for 0 degree weather, But it might be low for -30 degree weather with snow. Remember that you generally only charge to 90%, and you don't want to take it down to less than 20-30 miles left, so that 310 miles on the LR turns out to be 250 miles before you cut it in half for winter, leaving you with about 125 miles of range you can count on. (of course, with an SR you start at 240 mi, so in winter your effective range might be only about 90 miles or 155km).

I would second what everyone else has said - you will never regret the extra $10K that you spend on the LR (and the AWD will certainly help in the snow).

 

[joebruin77]

One other concern to consider, what happens if you have a flat tire or mechanical break down? What if you have to wait several hours for roadside assistance to find you, especially if you are in a remote region? There was an episode of Survivorman where the host had to survive in a broken down car in Norway in the middle of winter. During the night, he kept starting up the engine to run the heater to survive.

If I were routinely driving such cold conditions, I would want the security of having extra battery in case I needed to run the seat hearter or cabin heater in the event of a mechanical breakdown.

 

[DigAdrenaline]

One other concern to consider, what happens if you have a flat tire or mechanical break down? What if you have to wait several hours for roadside assistance to find you, especially if you are in a remote region? There was an episode of Survivorman where the host had to survive in a broken down car in Norway in the middle of winter. During the night, he kept starting up the engine to run the heater to survive.

If I were routinely driving such cold conditions, I would want the security of having extra battery in case I needed to run the seat hearter or cabin heater in the event of a mechanical breakdown.

Ummm, this isn’t a real concern. Running the seat heater uses nothing for power. You’d burn more juice driving a mile than running a seat heater for an hour. In a gas vehicle, you need to keep the engine warm to have heat. In an electric, you don’t. You also don’t need to worry about carbon monoxide poisoning in the electric.

I would way prefer being stuck in a blizzard in an electric than a gas job.

 

[KenC]

One other concern to consider, what happens if you have a flat tire or mechanical break down? What if you have to wait several hours for roadside assistance to find you, especially if you are in a remote region? There was an episode of Survivorman where the host had to survive in a broken down car in Norway in the middle of winter. During the night, he kept starting up the engine to run the heater to survive.

If I were routinely driving such cold conditions, I would want the security of having extra battery in case I needed to run the seat hearter or cabin heater in the event of a mechanical breakdown.

I think I would break out the mylar space blanket, and turn on the seat heater, in order to maximize battery time, because in an emergency, you don't know how long you may need the battery to last.