M3 vs Bolt Production Numbers

[McRat]

The trick they haven't learned is how to produce an EV that 450,000+ people want to buy.

But Ford could ramp up 650,000 more units a year (2012>2013) if there was an instant higher demand. That wasn't 2 years. That was 1 year. And it was purely demand constrained. The '500,000' Tesla reservations are not demand constrained. In theory, it should be much greater than 500,000 by now, especially since they are delivering cars in quantity now. There was no guarantee that Tesla would produce the Model 3 in 2016 when reservations were made. It was a gamble back then. Now that people know it really is being built, it should have seen another incredible jump.

However 400,000 people signed up when the Model 3 was still $35k. This was 1/2 price. 50% off sales always do well. Now that people can reserve a $50k+ car, it's not as hectic. When the $35k variant is released, we might see another huge jump in pre-orders. This could be used to generate cash. However, it is doubtful a car company, any car company could make a Model 3 at a profit in 2018 for $35,000. EV drivetrain systems are still expensive, and Tesla is still pre-installing hardware for FSD that cost money. Not to mention a % of sales must be used to support the Supercharging network, debt, and Solar City.

Now, lots of those folk knew it would not be $35k, so they weren't going into blind. But how many were?

I'm not saying this is right or wrong. Some folk could feel duped. At least 14,000 did not care or expected it.

 

[Zythryn]

...

It just sucks that Tesla is getting all this negative publicity over production when it seems that they're easily beating competitors.

Correct me if I'm wrong. This has been bugging me these past few days. I'd love to hear your thoughts.

Tesla is getting such negative publicity because their production ramp is behind, by a lot.
GM is not, because they are building what they guided for, 20k to 30k annually.

I agree with you patience is necessary with Tesla, and I am confident they will reach their guidance eventually. But the negative response is 80% self inflicted.

 

[diamond.g]

But Ford could ramp up 650,000 more units a year (2012>2013) if there was an instant higher demand. That wasn't 2 years. That was 1 year. And it was purely demand constrained. The '500,000' Tesla reservations are not demand constrained. In theory, it should be much greater than 500,000 by now, especially since they are delivering cars in quantity now. There was no guarantee that Tesla would produce the Model 3 in 2016 when reservations were made. It was a gamble back then. Now that people know it really is being built, it should have seen another incredible jump.

However 400,000 people signed up when the Model 3 was still $35k. This was 1/2 price. 50% off sales always do well. Now that people can reserve a $50k+ car, it's not as hectic. When the $35k variant is released, we might see another huge jump in pre-orders. This could be used to generate cash. However, it is doubtful a car company, any car company could make a Model 3 at a profit in 2018 for $35,000. EV drivetrain systems are still expensive, and Tesla is still pre-installing hardware for FSD that cost money. Not to mention a % of sales must be used to support the Supercharging network, debt, and Solar City.

Now, lots of those folk knew it would not be $35k, so they weren't going into blind. But how many were?

I'm not saying this is right or wrong. Some folk could feel duped. At least 14,000 did not care or expected it.

100k folks signed up before they even knew what it looked like. Let alone had any actual specs beyond 35k for 200 miles range. It was also unveiled before AP 2 was released (I don't recall seeing cameras on the sides in the unveil).

In retrospect, maybe Musk should have done a founders edition for the first 5000 cars with all the bells and whistles. Even though they got a lot of flack in the press about price. Which somehow for the Model 3 seems to be not highlighted as much by the press.

 

[EinSV]

I was thinking about how Tesla is getting blasted on their M3 production ramp and how their producing +-2700 cars per week seems minimal for a mass production vehicle, but what about the Bolt?

The bolt has sold +-28,000 units in the 1.5 years it's been on the market and the M3 +-18,000 in the last what, 5 months? I understand that Chevy has been around for some time now, but given Tesla's age, they're doing pretty darn good. Yes, Chevy beat Tesla to an "affordable" option but I don't get the whole production talk.

Tesla is/should be easily surpassing Chevy in production numbers, correct? I'm I making sense here?

It just sucks that Tesla is getting all this negative publicity over production when it seems that they're easily beating competitors.

Correct me if I'm wrong. This has been bugging me these past few days. I'd love to hear your thoughts.

@viktorleon, you are right.

Based on insideEVs estimates, in January and February, far more Model 3s than Bolts were delivered to US customers.

And in March, Model 3 deliveries more than doubled Bolt deliveries in the US.

Here are the US numbers so far this year:

Model 3 Bolt
January 1875 1177
February 2485 1424
March 3820 1774

So Model 3 US sales are already trouncing the Bolt, and it's about to get a LOT worse as Tesla ramps up to 3-4K/week, then 5K/week. By then, Tesla will likely be outproducing the Bolt by 7 to 1, even if Chevy increases production to 3000/month.

insideEVs estimates are for US sales, but GM has only delivered a couple hundred a month in Europe (and Opel has suspended new orders there) and only allocated 5000 to Korea for the entire year so the worldwide numbers shouldn't change the picture much.
Opel Ampera-e EV European sales figures
General Motors Allocates 5,000 Chevrolet Bolt EVs For South Korean Market.)

 

[McRat]

100k folks signed up before they even knew what it looked like. Let alone had any actual specs beyond 35k for 200 miles range. It was also unveiled before AP 2 was released (I don't recall seeing cameras on the sides in the unveil).

In retrospect, maybe Musk should have done a founders edition for the first 5000 cars with all the bells and whistles. Even though they got a lot of flack in the press about price. Which somehow for the Model 3 seems to be not highlighted as much by the press.

All it took was $35k. It was cheaper than anything out there or soon to be available and 1/2 the price of a Tesla.

I do agree with the Founder's Edition. Either scalpers were going to get the money or Tesla. It was bound to happen.

 

[gregd]

I think the bottom line in all this is that deliveries of the Model 3 are capacity-constrained, and the Bolt demand-constrained. Both, I would argue, are self-inflicted. The Model 3 was doomed to (temporarily, let us hope) be in short supply, because Tesla's mission is to change the world, and only if they failed to generate that demand from their customer base would they have been able to meet the demand with production. In other words, in order to succeed in their overall mission, they had to fail in production, and the more they succeeded in the mission, the more they had to fail in production. Yep, that's hell.

GM, on the other hand, apparently had to fail at generating demand, in order to succeed in assurance of supply. Why their failure at generating demand was intentional or not is yet to be fully understood. Was it to protect their on-going ICE business, or because failure to meet demand would have inflicted a negative mark on their brand, or because of contractual constraints with LG, or some other factor, we may never know. I guess that's a form of hell, too.

 

[S'toon]

But they do know how to make a profit.....specially Porsche.

Porsche has built their company as large as it's going to get. Tesla is still building the company from the ground up. They're building factories, stores, charging network, etc. Once all that is built, then they'll be in a position to start paying off the debt.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

In retrospect, maybe Musk should have done a founders edition for the first 5000 cars with all the bells and whistles. Even though they got a lot of flack in the press about price. Which somehow for the Model 3 seems to be not highlighted as much by the press.

Founders didn't make as much sense as for S or X. No AWD or performance yet. Lots of deferrals. Can't have one with all bells and whistles.

 

[sub]

But Ford could ramp up 650,000 more units a year (2012>2013) if there was an instant higher demand. That wasn't 2 years. That was 1 year. And it was purely demand constrained. The '500,000' Tesla reservations are not demand constrained. In theory, it should be much greater than 500,000 by now, especially since they are delivering cars in quantity now. There was no guarantee that Tesla would produce the Model 3 in 2016 when reservations were made. It was a gamble back then. Now that people know it really is being built, it should have seen another incredible jump.

However 400,000 people signed up when the Model 3 was still $35k. This was 1/2 price. 50% off sales always do well. Now that people can reserve a $50k+ car, it's not as hectic. When the $35k variant is released, we might see another huge jump in pre-orders. This could be used to generate cash. However, it is doubtful a car company, any car company could make a Model 3 at a profit in 2018 for $35,000. EV drivetrain systems are still expensive, and Tesla is still pre-installing hardware for FSD that cost money. Not to mention a % of sales must be used to support the Supercharging network, debt, and Solar City.

Now, lots of those folk knew it would not be $35k, so they weren't going into blind. But how many were?

I'm not saying this is right or wrong. Some folk could feel duped. At least 14,000 did not care or expected it.

So you will publicly eat these words when Tesla starts delivering the 35k option? Never did Elon/Tesla say the 35k would be first, and only the uniformed would think that was the case based on model S/X higher optioned cars being delivered first.

Pretty sure Tesla moved up the original model 3 target date (2020?) to 2017, all the haters conveniently forget this detail.

But please, continue telling us how you could do it better.

 

[voip-ninja]

So you will publicly eat these words when Tesla starts delivering the 35k option? Never did Elon/Tesla say the 35k would be first, and only the uniformed would think that was the case based on model S/X higher optioned cars being delivered first.

Pretty sure Tesla moved up the original model 3 target date (2020?) to 2017, all the haters conveniently forget this detail.

But please, continue telling us how you could do it better.

Well, here's the tale of the tape;

From Wikipedia;

In September 2015, Tesla announced that the Model 3 would be unveiled in March 2016.[55] In January 2016, Musk said that the first official pictures of the car will be revealed at the end of March 2016.[56]Delivery would begin in late 2017 first on the US West Coast and then move eastwards

Deliveries DID begin in late 2017, as promised, but in extremely small quantities, so I'm not sure where you are coming up with 2020, there is zero information I can find that they ever estimated 2020 as the delivery date.

Musk also never indicated that there would even be a longer battery option or that the longer battery would come first, or what the price difference would be. The car was unveiled as costing $35,000 before options and there was absolutely no indication that this base model would come over a year after sales of the car began.

“You will not be able to buy a better car for $35,000, or even close,” said Musk. “It’s a really good car, even with no options. At Tesla, we don’t make slow cars.”

Can you point to another automaker who has announced a vehicle and then began shipping that vehicle but not offered the base trim for over a year? Only Tesla can get away with it.

I believe Tesla eventually will deliver the $35,000 Model 3 but they will not do it a minute before they can do it profitably. It's even possible that they will do limited production of $35,000 SR Model 3 for quite some time until they can begin building the car in a lower labor market like Tennessee.

 

[McRat]

I think the bottom line in all this is that deliveries of the Model 3 are capacity-constrained, and the Bolt demand-constrained. Both, I would argue, are self-inflicted. The Model 3 was doomed to (temporarily, let us hope) be in short supply, because Tesla's mission is to change the world, and only if they failed to generate that demand from their customer base would they have been able to meet the demand with production. In other words, in order to succeed in their overall mission, they had to fail in production, and the more they succeeded in the mission, the more they had to fail in production. Yep, that's hell.

GM, on the other hand, apparently had to fail at generating demand, in order to succeed in assurance of supply. Why their failure at generating demand was intentional or not is yet to be fully understood. Was it to protect their on-going ICE business, or because failure to meet demand would have inflicted a negative mark on their brand, or because of contractual constraints with LG, or some other factor, we may never know. I guess that's a form of hell, too.

GM is not doing what other full-line EV and PHEV makers are right now. There are no $99 or $199 leases right now. Other EV makers who are demand constrained simply give their cars away. The Fiat 500e fell to $79/m leasing on a $33k car.

You will see bigger discounts on the stripped Volts and Bolts than the loaded ones, which are in very short supply.

Today, there is roughly:
60 days max supply of Bolts nationwide (2800). But only 750 loaded Bolts. $410/m lease IF you have eligible 'conquest' lease car (non-GM). Otherwise higher.
Nearly 4 months of Volts, but again, loaded ones are hard to find. The higher inventory yields an offer of a $289/m lease with a 'conquest' sale.

ie - GM is not giving away EVs right now. Perhaps later in the year? At one point there was up to $6500 off Bolt EVs in California at reputable dealers. You are doing great to reach 1/2 that now, and it must be a Conquest transaction.

There was burst in the 4th quarter of 2017 of Bolt sales, because the Russians said Trump would tear up the federal EV rebate for a fact. They had proof from pole dancers in Moscow.
But as soon as buyers found out it was Polish cows dancing in moss who were the source, (not fake news, a mistake), the panic ended and sales went back from whence they came.

The question is, how many Bolts are being diverted to non-US-retail applications? Is there is big difference between sales and production? GM never said they slowed down production, but inventories are surprisingly low since sales are average at best.

 

[McRat]

So you will publicly eat these words when Tesla starts delivering the 35k option? Never did Elon/Tesla say the 35k would be first, and only the uniformed would think that was the case based on model S/X higher optioned cars being delivered first.

Pretty sure Tesla moved up the original model 3 target date (2020?) to 2017, all the haters conveniently forget this detail.

But please, continue telling us how you could do it better.

I will offer a Public Apology thread if more than 10,000 Model 3's are sold for $35,000 before 2020. The price of EV components continues to fall, at some point $35,000 will be feasible for a For-Profit enterprise.

Remember the Model S 40? Perhaps it is true nobody wanted them. In any case, the 'discount' Tesla was made in very limited quantities then discontinued.

 

[sub]

Well, here's the tale of the tape;

From Wikipedia;


Deliveries DID begin in late 2017, as promised, but in extremely small quantities, so I'm not sure where you are coming up with 2020, there is zero information I can find that they ever estimated 2020 as the delivery date.

Musk also never indicated that there would even be a longer battery option or that the longer battery would come first, or what the price difference would be. The car was unveiled as costing $35,000 before options and there was absolutely no indication that this base model would come over a year after sales of the car began.



Can you point to another automaker who has announced a vehicle and then began shipping that vehicle but not offered the base trim for over a year? Only Tesla can get away with it.

I believe Tesla eventually will deliver the $35,000 Model 3 but they will not do it a minute before they can do it profitably. It's even possible that they will do limited production of $35,000 SR Model 3 for quite some time until they can begin building the car in a lower labor market like Tennessee.

Nice job arguing against your own point. You said yourself, car was unveiled as 35k base plus options, so far that is what has happened.

Since musk/Tesla did not layout exactly what version would be available at what time, how exactly do you get to claim they lied?

I did include the 2020 with a question mark as I was not sure of that myself.

However, deposits are refundable so what's all the whining about? Ask for a refund and go bye bye, life isn't that hard.

 

[sub]

I will offer a Public Apology thread if more than 10,000 Model 3's are sold for $35,000 before 2020. The price of EV components continues to fall, at some point $35,000 will be feasible for a For-Profit enterprise.

Remember the Model S 40? Perhaps it is true nobody wanted them. In any case, the 'discount' Tesla was made in very limited quantities then discontinued.

Goal posts moved, noted. I'm sure by 2020 you will have 10000 additional posts explaining to Tesla how they can better do their job. Who was it flapping their lips again?

 

[nvx1977]

Tesla announces new Model 3 production plans, guidance of 500,000 cars/yr by 2018, instead of 2020

The original plan was to make 500k cars (SX3) by 2020, but in light of the 400k reservations accumulated in just one month, they realized they had to try to fulfil much faster. So they targeted 2018 and antisold the 3 like crazy.

This was always aggressive. I remember reading the story and thinking there's no way they're going to make this. And they won't. But it still beats having to wait an extra year or two for the 3.

I also remember reading that Musk thought best case scenario was that they would get ~100k reservations max. If I can find the source, I'll post it.

 

[McRat]

Goal posts moved, noted. I'm sure by 2020 you will have 10000 additional posts explaining to Tesla how they can better do their job. Who was it flapping their lips again?

How many cars do you want TSLA to sell at $35k if they lose money on each one?

 

[EVCollies]

When I visited my local Chevy dealer at the end of March...they had no Bolts on the lot..and most of the Bolts they had coming in were pre-sold...just waiting for the car to come off the rail car and trucked to the dealer.

cars.com has 2,840 new Bolts listed.
https://www.cars.com/for-sale/searc...=30308&stkTypId=28880&searchSource=QUICK_FORM

 

[seattlite2004]

cars.com has 2,840 new Bolts listed.
https://www.cars.com/for-sale/searc...=30308&stkTypId=28880&searchSource=QUICK_FORM

Sweet....I was only looking at local dealers.....and one particular dealer that was offering $7.5k off MSRP....I'm cheap and lazy like that.

 

[Electroman]

Which situation do you guys prefer:

A company that can make hundreds of thousands of cars, but has only little demand, and so the production is low

Or, a company that has very high demand, but is having some temporary production ramp up issues, and so the production is low (at the moment)

 

[insaneoctane]

Which situation do you guys prefer:

A company that can make hundreds of thousands of cars, but has only little demand, and so the production is low

Or, a company that has very high demand, but is having some temporary production ramp up issues, and so the production is low (at the moment)

Kind of seems rhetorical on TMC...