Macro economic changes coming

[Steph]

Good evening all, my first post here! Saying HI from Montréal

I discovered Tesla and his fantastic CEO about 3 montgs ago, what a discovery it was for me! Since then i've read pretty much everything on this subject, went thru all financial statements, youtube videos, interviews, press releases.

Everything!

I came to the conclusion that electric cars are here to stay and no one will want to buy a fossile fuel powered vehicule when a cheaper and better option is available.

That will definitly bring a lot of macro-economic changes, structural changes.

I can think of a few:

- Due to cut in imported oil, can the US finally rid of its commercial deficit ?
- People will have more money in hand (no more buying expensive imported oil)
- Gas service staions will die if they dont innovate, what will they do?
- A huge part of the Island here in Montreal is occupied with massive oil refineries, this will be good new prime land when they die (after a bit of cleanup!)
- 97% of electricity is hydro in my part of this blue planet, no carbon emission here.

When people wake up to this and production is full speed with all automakers, this thing will go exponential !

It will be a very different world, and it's here, unfolding right in front of us. Very exciting to see history hapening in slow motion.

I'am also invested (and long) in Tesla since a month (and up 30% )

What other structural changes are coming? Lets think out of the box and imagine what the world will be in ten years.

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

Welcome, Steph!

Apart from the EV revolution which, I think, will account for up to 15% of passenger cars, I'm hoping for the following in 10 years:

- Tesla would have 6-7 models on the market and would be a Fortune 1000 company. I'm hoping that they stay independent and are not compelled to sell out to a Daimler or a Toyota.

- Battery tech for EVs will advance to the extent that a 700 mile range on a single charge would be possible.

- High-speed Rail becomes more widely accepted and widespread in the US, particularly in high air traffic corridors such as SF-LA-SD.

- Electricity generation would move away from coal to a large extent everywhere. Not sure if Nuclear fills the gap though.

- Heavy oil consumption will move towards Asia where countries will hopefully notice and tackle the environmental impact.

- A possibility of Lithium wars fought for the sake of raw materials for batteries

 

[NigelM]

Hmmm, no more oil imports from Canada.:frown:

 

[Fr23shjive]

Jiffy Lube will need to adjust their business model once most the cars on the road are EVs. There won't be much demand for oil changes.

Great thread idea.

 

[Mycroft]

In 10 years:

- TSLA will make me a millionaire.

- I will have been retired for three years.

- Tesla should have at least 6 models on the road.

- You'll be able to drive virtually everywhere in the lower 48 + Canada via EV without worrying about not being able to charge

- The cost of EV drive trains will be on par or better with ICE, enabling the sale of EVs to anyone who could afford a new ICE car and has a place either at home or work to keep it charged.

- Many more used EVs will be available

- ICE cars are still popular for lots of reasons, but sales are greatly reduced.

- Diesel trucks are still required for transporting goods

- High speed rail will be delayed due to politics and cost overruns

 

[NigelM]

What other structural changes are coming? Lets think out of the box and imagine what the world will be in ten years.

- Major cuts in defense budgets (aka military spending) as there's no need for oil wars or even protecting oil supply routes.
- No more oil spills....Less toxins in the ocean....Less toxins in our seafood.
- Return to the neighborhood corner store? (No more convenience stores at gas stations)
- Scotland stops trying to secede from the UK. (That one for our British friends)
- Productivity increases when we all save the time spent at the gas pump.
- No need to pump gas on the way to work....We all get to sleep longer...The world is a happier place! :biggrin:

I really like this thread.

 

[richkae]

Dare to dream of a wild eyed best case scenario in 10 years:

All new passenger vehicles sold are EVs. All new work trucks are EVs, EREVs or hybrids.
The US/European grids are the cleanest they have ever been, coal provides a tiny fraction of power, the majority of power is provided from solar photovoltaic, solar thermal,wind,tidal,hydro, nuclear and natural gas.
$500 billion per year that 10 years ago was spent on gasoline is instead spent on clean generation technologies, providing domestic industry and jobs.
The west exports millions of EVs to China each year.
EVs have displaced more than 80 million vehicles in the US fleet, and EVs account for 50% of miles driven because gas cars are too expensive to use any more than necessary.
Petroleum is used primarily for jet fuel and diesel for aircraft and heavy trucks, the US and Europe import no petroleum.

Jet fuel consumption is dropping because new electric jets are starting to replace old jets, some of them using ( the too expensive and impractical for automobile use ) hydrogen fuel cells.

 

[dsm363]

Every car is run on second generation biofuel...oh wait, wrong thread:smile:

 

[ElSupreme]

Every car is run on second generation biofuel...oh wait, wrong thread:smile:

By then we will have 3rd generation biofuel, that not only cleans the air but makes it smell like roses too!

But in all honesty most cars have a 10+ year road life. Even if EVs start selling at 5% of the market next year in 10 years there will still be a whole lot of gassers left. It will probably take 20-30 years before there is significant decline in gasoline industry. Unless there is a sweet "Cash for gassers" program sometime.

 

[Beavis]

In response to EV competition, the price of oil drops like a rock. ICE and oil lose the competition despite the cheap price of oil and the old tech is only found in 3rd world countries before finally going the way of the dinosaur. All in my lifetime.

 

[jcstp]

-people do more roadtrips as now because "fuel" is cheap

1. - Lots of restaurants and bars offer fast-charging! So much more people work in this bussiness
2. -hotels have more bussiness also due to these roadtrips

-more oxigene in the air due to less ICE engines

-cleaner air = less healthcosts

1. -less allergies due to clean air
2. -less cancer
3. -people live longer

 

[dsm363]

All it takes is one major oil crisis with oil staying about $150-200/barrel and EVs start to look a lot better. I have a feeling that the oil producing nations would do everything in their power to keep prices down since the last time oil spiked, people all of a sudden started using less oil and buying more efficient ICEs and hybrids. I'm hoping EVs can be 5% of new cars in 10 years.

 

[Steph]

I like all the answers here, I find it amazing to see all this coming , most people I know have no ideas of what's is store for them in the future, when the word come out, the world will be changed forever. Very exciting

 

[Steph]

In Quebec, we have some very huge mining project underway, they are of course looking for lithium, rare earth metals, creating new hydro projects too feed makers of aluminum.

Investment by the government is about 25 billions to create the infrastructure to access the north of the province, roads, train tracks, ports, etc. This place is booming like crazy.

 

[richkae]

Back to reality - 10 years from now:
Even in a realistic best case scenario of selling several million EVs per year 10 years from now ICE cars will still be 90-95% of the US fleet.
China will be the number 1 consumer of oil in the world, and the decisions of the US consumer will have far less impact than they do now on the price of gasoline.
Fuel efficiency of gas cars will be of paramount importance, the average new car will get 50MPG but still be less affordable to drive than a new car today.
Old cars that get less than 30MPG will sit rarely used with zero value or be scrapped en masse.

 

[Steph]

Back to reality - 10 years from now:
Even in a realistic best case scenario of selling several million EVs per year 10 years from now ICE cars will still be 90-95% of the US fleet.
China will be the number 1 consumer of oil in the world, and the decisions of the US consumer will have far less impact than they do now on the price of gasoline.
Fuel efficiency of gas cars will be of paramount importance, the average new car will get 50MPG but still be less affordable to drive than a new car today.
Old cars that get less than 30MPG will sit rarely used with zero value or be scrapped en masse.

I have a completely different reading of where we will be in 10 years. I believe EVs will be 90-95% of the fleet.

When EVs become available in masse, it will make no economic sense to but an ICE vehicle. EVs are already cheaper to run today, technology will even get cheaper and cheaper every year.

In a few years, I think electric conversion kits (from Tesla and others) will be very popular and economical for ICE vehicle owners, that's a market no one is talking about... yet.

 

[dsm363]

I have a completely different reading of where we will be in 10 years. I believe EVs will be 90-95% of the fleet.

When EVs become available in masse, it will make no economic sense to but an ICE vehicle. EVs are already cheaper to run today, technology will even get cheaper and cheaper every year.

In a few years, I think electric conversion kits (from Tesla and others) will be very popular and economical for ICE vehicle owners, that's a market no one is talking about... yet.

EVs would only be 90% on new car sales in the US if gas were to jump up to $8 or more and stay there I think. It would be great but think the transition will probably take more than a decade unless something drastic happens with oil and gas prices.

 

[Robert.Boston]

When forecasting the % of fleet that is EV, you need to start first with a forecast of % new sales, then look at retirements. Even if EV sales were 90% of total vehicle sales in 2013, it would be 5+ years before EVs were 50% of the fleet. Cars are durable goods.

 

[NigelM]

-people do more roadtrips as now because "fuel" is cheap

1. - Lots of restaurants and bars offer fast-charging! So much more people work in this bussiness
2. -hotels have more bussiness also due to these roadtrips

This is starting to happen in some areas already. Quite a number of hotels either have charge points or at least make outlets available. Talking to the installers around here, the next wave looks likely to be at the shopping malls. The city here installed their charge stations at the prime parking spots one block from Main Street with all it's restaurants and shops. They have plans to install charge stations at the beach car park (pending sorting out hurricane/flooding code problems). In other words, putting the charging stations in places where people want to spend time...the free market works!

 

[Steph]

EVs would only be 90% on new car sales in the US if gas were to jump up to $8 or more and stay there I think. It would be great but think the transition will probably take more than a decade unless something drastic happens with oil and gas prices.

Here in Montreal, price of gas is ~$1.40/liter which translate to $5.30/gallon ($USD is currently at par with $CAD)

I have a BMW X3 costing me ~$500/Month for the lease and another ~$400 for gas.

Today, if the Model X was available, i figure a lease would cost about the same or let's say it costs $200 more then my X3, i still would save ~$200/month. It would be cheaper and I would have a much better car.

The only thing missing is supply. And supply will take a few years to move to full speed.

Since most of all electricity produced around here is hydro and it is very cheap, it already make sense for me economically and environmentally.

I'm not even counting saving repairs... (just paid $2000 on my X3 for engine problems)