Macro economic changes coming

[Steph]

When forecasting the % of fleet that is EV, you need to start first with a forecast of % new sales, then look at retirements. Even if EV sales were 90% of total vehicle sales in 2013, it would be 5+ years before EVs were 50% of the fleet. Cars are durable goods.

That would be true if all remains the same as today. But things change.

If conversion kits become economically viable compare to keeping the ICE, the outcome may be very different.

Think about solar city business model, savings by replacing energy source. This model can be easily adapted for the ICE/Electric conversions...

 

[dsm363]

Most people would not do aftermarket EV conversions unless they became very cheap. You'd likely wait until your original car warranty was done then the integration likely wouldn't be warrantied the same or built as well as from a company like Tesla. They're more likely to buy a more fuel efficient ICE or a new EV.

 

[Steph]

Most people would not do aftermarket EV conversions unless they became very cheap. You'd likely wait until your original car warranty was done then the integration likely wouldn't be warrantied the same or built as well as from a company like Tesla. They're more likely to buy a more fuel efficient ICE or a new EV.

Maybe, maybe not.

If someone pays $4-500/month in fuel and a conversion kit lease costs $2-300/month, no matter the car warranty, people will want to say bye bye to their ICE imho.

 

[richkae]

Maybe, maybe not.

If someone pays $4-500/month in fuel and a conversion kit lease costs $2-300/month, no matter the car warranty, people will want to say bye bye to their ICE imho.

I disagree. I seriously considered having a conversion built before I bought my Tesla. I did a lot of research on the matter.
The scariest part of a conversion is not the lack of warranty, it is the incredibly limited ability to have it repaired or serviced after purchase.
If the company I chose to do the converting folded or I was unhappy with their service I would have almost nowhere else to go.

For conversions to be a viable option for most consumers, they would need to know a large reputable company stood behind the parts and labor. I don't think such a company could gain critical mass.
Its a chicken and egg problem.

 

[richkae]

Here in Montreal, price of gas is ~$1.40/liter which translate to $5.30/gallon ($USD is currently at par with $CAD)

I have a BMW X3 costing me ~$500/Month for the lease and another ~$400 for gas.

Today, if the Model X was available, i figure a lease would cost about the same or let's say it costs $200 more then my X3, i still would save ~$200/month. It would be cheaper and I would have a much better car.

The only thing missing is supply. And supply will take a few years to move to full speed.

Since most of all electricity produced around here is hydro and it is very cheap, it already make sense for me economically and environmentally.

I'm not even counting saving repairs... (just paid $2000 on my X3 for engine problems)

Exactly. Supply is the problem. If we are very lucky there will be manufacturing capacity for 1 million EVs in 3-4 years.
A super optimist could hope for 10 million EV capacity in 10 years.
There are 240 million passenger vehicles in the US, about 12 million new ones were sold in 2011 and 12 million were scrapped.
At that rate - it takes 10 years to replace half the fleet.

 

[vfx]

Exactly. Supply is the problem. If we are very lucky there will be manufacturing capacity for 1 million EVs in 3-4 years.
A super optimist could hope for 10 million EV capacity in 10 years.
There are 240 million passenger vehicles in the US, about 12 million new ones were sold in 2011 and 12 million were scrapped.
At that rate - it takes 10 years to replace half the fleet.

When the predicted 700 mile range arrives then not only will car not have to be a slave to aerodynamics but conversions will be much more accessible.
Public schools are already teaching conversions so the automotive schools will be teaching it too.
Conversion shops will be done by the same people who are now starting and running auto repair shops.

There are 100s of millions of favorite, classic, and vintage cars that will benifit from and electric drivetrain.

Someone bring back Heathkits!

 

[brianman]

Most people would not do aftermarket EV conversions unless they became very cheap. You'd likely wait until your original car warranty was done then the integration likely wouldn't be warrantied the same or built as well as from a company like Tesla. They're more likely to buy a more fuel efficient ICE or a new EV.

I wonder if anybody's called it yet... "Cash for Gassers" gov't program.

 

[neroden]

When forecasting the % of fleet that is EV, you need to start first with a forecast of % new sales, then look at retirements. Even if EV sales were 90% of total vehicle sales in 2013, it would be 5+ years before EVs were 50% of the fleet. Cars are durable goods.

Absolutely. Personally, I project substantial increases in retirements *without* replacements, as the average US consumer continues to have no savings, EVs remain expensive, and ICEs get more and more expensive to operate. We're actually already seeing this trend, and a large shift to rail/bus/bike/walking, and we're even starting to see a population move away from unwalkable suburbs into downtowns. Resale values of low-MPG cars are going to drop off a cliff at some point. The people hardest hit will be those who live *and* work in rural areas; there will probably end up being some sort of subsidy program.

In terms of predictions, I've said before that I know people with a revolutionary battery design and a revolutionary solar panel design (revolutionary in cost per watt / watt-hour) -- energy generation and storage will start to change radically as such things come to commercial production. That trend will only be starting to have its effects in 10 years, but in 30 the world will have changed.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Also, instead of thinking about "% of vehicles" it might be more relevant to look at "% of miles". I'll bet that many families hold on to an ICE for those occasional long trips, but an increasingly large % of their driving will be on electricity.

 

[EVNow]

Ten years a long time. Who knows what will happen - afterall how many predicted in 2000 that in 10 years we would have a black president, an orange speaker, armies in Iraq & Afghanistan

The biggest threat in ten years is Peak Oil. The extent of oil shortage & the resulting effect on the economy is hard to predit. It could mean a great boost to EVs or a crippling blow to the world economy (which would affect EVs as well).

 

[Steph]

When the predicted 700 mile range arrives then not only will car not have to be a slave to aerodynamics but conversions will be much more accessible.
Public schools are already teaching conversions so the automotive schools will be teaching it too.
Conversion shops will be done by the same people who are now starting and running auto repair shops.

There are 100s of millions of favorite, classic, and vintage cars that will benifit from and electric drivetrain.

Someone bring back Heathkits!

100s of millions of cars to convert seems like a good market to me. Even if 10% convert, not what you'd call a small niche market...

I also believe repair shops will be great for the job. Removing ICE, exhaust system, fuel tank, etc. Installing Tesla power train with different attachment for each type of car, i presume some kind of specialization will occur, repair shop may specialize in Honda conversion, other in GM and so on.

Elon musk he will not stop until all cars are electric, and he does make power trains. Someone with a good business plan may just go talk to him about creating a conversion market.

It will be done. No question.

 

[dpeilow]

The biggest threat in ten years is Peak Oil. The extent of oil shortage & the resulting effect on the economy is hard to predit. It could mean a great boost to EVs or a crippling blow to the world economy (which would affect EVs as well).

Even though more respected authorities are predicting peak oil this decade, I don't think EV fans should be popping the champagne corks just yet.

I think we will see oil companies bring in more and more GTL fuels as Shell have done with V-Power diesel.

Gas to liquids - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The World Bank estimates that over 150 billion cubic metres of natural gas are flared or vented annually, an amount worth approximately 30.6 billion dollars, equivalent to 25 percent of the United States’ gas consumption or 30% of the European Union’s gas consumption per year,[9] a resource that could be useful using GTL.

Future generations will look back and wonder what the hell were we doing.

 

[dsm363]

100s of millions of cars to convert seems like a good market to me. Even if 10% convert, not what you'd call a small niche market...

I also believe repair shops will be great for the job. Removing ICE, exhaust system, fuel tank, etc. Installing Tesla power train with different attachment for each type of car, i presume some kind of specialization will occur, repair shop may specialize in Honda conversion, other in GM and so on.

Elon musk he will not stop until all cars are electric, and he does make power trains. Someone with a good business plan may just go talk to him about creating a conversion market.

It will be done. No question.

I personally wouldn't take my car to a repair shop that had done only a few conversions. There would have to be specialized conversion shops pop up in every major city where that was their only job and something they did every day. I guess this could happen. In 10 years if a car like the Leaf is even cheaper, I'd rather get than than take a 10 year old car for an aftermarket conversion to electric.

 

[dhrivnak]

A conversion is not inexpensive nor easy. I know I have done two of them. Currently a quality conversion will run $25K. And you need the donor car. That will give one a 100 mile range and a reasonable 7 sec 0-60. I am also including heat and air. Yes it can be done cheaper if you want 50 miles range and 12 sec 0-60. With a Leaf running $26k with the rebate it will be very hard to compete. That is the reason I am now driving a Roadster.

 

[dsm363]

A conversion is not inexpensive nor easy. I know I have done two of them. Currently a quality conversion will run $25K. And you need the donor car. That will give one a 100 mile range and a reasonable 7 sec 0-60. I am also including heat and air. Yes it can be done cheaper if you want 50 miles range and 12 sec 0-60. With a Leaf running $26k with the rebate it will be very hard to compete. That is the reason I am now driving a Roadster.

Exactly. The other point I was trying to make about warranty is that most conversions would be done with older, out of warranty cars (unless someone buys a brand new car and then immediately takes the motor out for the conversion). You'd be putting in 10-20 thousand dollars into a car with old parts more likely to need work later out of warranty. The conversion company is only going to warranty their work, not anything else on the car. Most people would be better off buying the Leaf, a Tesla if they truly want an EV as you said or maybe a plug-in hybrid.

 

[Robert.Boston]

But back to Steph's rejoinder, and trying to move this conversation back to its original, big-picture view:

In ten years, what are the transformations when one-third of all new passenger vehicles are BEV or PHEV (and operated primarily on battery)?

• Oil and gas are still important, and will for decades be viewed as important as primary feedstocks for plastics and other petrochemicals, as well as a legacy transport fuel. But OPEC or its successors no longer have a proverbial gun to the heads of the leaders of oil-importing economies, as oil imports will have declined and a viable alternative will be available. Improvements in biofuels, such as use of algae, will further reduce extraction of fossil fuels.
• Increased home-charging of cars will reverse sluggish growth of electricity consumption in the past decade, providing electricity distribution companies (your utility, muni, etc.) the funds to modernize their networks. In addition to smart control of EV charging, this will bring along a host of other improvements about the way we use power, at home, in businesses, and in public spaces.
• Improved grid technology will also improve integration of distributed generation, including home PV, on-site combined heat-and-power facilities in factories and businesses, and fuel cells operating from waste gases.
• Greater electricity demand also spurs development of commercial-scale renewable energy technologies, particularly ocean-based energy solutions, which are physically near load centers and do not compete for land space with other uses.
• The addition of more variable energy generation (both distributed and renewable) increases the value of energy storage, spurring tech innovation in that field. These innovations improve the functionality and lower the cost of EVs.

Thus, we have a "virtuous circle", where the development of EVs contributes to the forces that make yet more EV penetration inevitable.

 

[Steph]

And in ten years, we may have a colony on Mars

Go Elon!

 

[Steph]

Model X, being fully electric, could probably be an excellent vehicle to drive from crater to crater on Mars. A potential export market

 

[NigelM]

Model X, being fully electric, could probably be an excellent vehicle to drive from crater to crater on Mars. A potential export market

Solar irradiance on Mars is about half what it is on Earth...That's going to require a hell of a lot of PV to charge your X. (I'm assuming that hydroelectricity generation is going to be out of the question).

 

[Steph]

Solar irradiance on Mars is about half what it is on Earth...That's going to require a hell of a lot of PV to charge your X. (I'm assuming that hydroelectricity generation is going to be out of the question).

Nuclear might be possible. Or maybe fusion? I heard Elon is interested in looking at that next.